The investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election being conducted by former FBI Director Robert Mueller has made its first arrests. The New York Times reports:
WASHINGTON — Paul Manafort surrendered to federal authorities Monday morning, after a person close to the case said the first charges were filed in a special counsel investigation.
The charges against Mr. Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign chairman, were not immediately clear but represent a significant escalation in a special counsel investigation that has cast a shadow over the president’s first year in office. Also charged was Mr. Manafort’s former business associate Rick Gates, who was also told to surrender on Monday, the person said.
There’s an excellent summary of what we may expect going forward at Wired:
Monday’s charges are only the beginning of what’s sure to be a complex and deeply partisan process. And, if this weekend’s release of half-century-old files related to JFK’s assassination is any guide, we, as a country, may never feel like we fully understand what transpired in 2016.
While my view continues to be what it has been along (I’m content with the investigative process unfolding), IMO the entire matter may be hugely anticlimactic. There won’t be any charges of collusion (there is no such crime), there won’t be any charges of treason (it doesn’t remotely fit anything that actually happened), and President Trump himself won’t be charged with anything (the only recourse is impeachment and that won’t happen as long as his support among Republicans is as high as it is). Anyone who’s banking his or her hopes on that should get used to disappointment.
Will these be the only arrests and the only charges? How high will they go? Stay tuned.
Guess they will get Flynn in the next round.
Steve
Well it looks like the charges so far and presumably if any more are to come will be related to failure to register as foreign lobbyists, tax evasion, money laundering, and some perjury counts when they trip people up during questioning.
That’s not nothing but I agree it’s not treason. It sure seems like there has been plenty of all of this from both political parties- consider the Podesta Group which was working hand in glove with Manafort and Gates, for instance. So what interests me is whether Mueller will really be nonpartisan in how far he is willing to follow leads.
Let me steal here from Dan Drezner https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/10/30/these-are-the-facts-of-the-russia-investigation-and-they-are-not-in-dispute/?utm_term=.ce87446dc06d
“The undisputed facts that we have learned in 2017, however, are still devastating. Trump’s family and the top echelons of the campaign hoped that a meeting with well-connected Russians would yield dirt on Clinton. The Trump White House dissembled on the purpose of this meeting. And Trump admitted that the primary reason he fired the FBI director was because of the Russia investigation.”
Drezner seems to think these are devastating, but I wonder. My suspicion is people who really dislike Hillary Clinton are going to feel that listening to Russians with nasty stories about her, or even asking the Russians if they know some nasty stories, is just part of what one does in politics. It’s like swapping a little gossip at the church social, not a big deal.
And as for lying about it afterwards … it’s like that gossiping at the church social. Everyone does it but it’s “not nice” to admit to it, particularly with people in different social circles who make a thing about not gossiping. So naturally you tell some lies about it, and again it’s no big deal.
As for Trump shutting down Comey’s investigation …. He’s the boss, isn’t he? And he knows the whole thing is just nonsense, so he’s got all the right in the world to do that….
I don’t think Trump supporters are going to worry much about the crimes Trump and his crew may have committed. They’re going to see this as Good Guys belabored by Clinton’s supporters.