The Avis Administration

I think that in his latest Washington Post column Josh Rogin has correctly pinpointed the Biden Administration’s policy with respect to North Korea—it’s a return to the Obama Administration’s policy of “strategic patience”:

The Biden administration has just rolled out the results of its North Korea strategy review, which is meant to chart a path forward to solve one of the thorniest and most dangerous national security problems in the world. But now that the review is complete, the administration’s plan is essentially to wait for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to make the next positive move, which doesn’t seem likely to happen anytime soon. To some, that sounds like a return to the Obama-era policy of “strategic patience” — just without saying as much.

I don’t see that as such a bad thing. I think that “strategic patience” is the right strategy with respect to North Korea, particularly when coupled with a redoubling of efforts to strengthen the relationship between South Korea and the United States. An admitted defect of the approach is that it cedes the initiative to North Korea and that may well prove a tactical blunder. Mr. Rogin remarks:

Regardless of what you call it, the problem with the wait-and-see approach is that the status quo is unsustainable. North Korea continues to move ahead with its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. That means the threat is rising. It also means the terms of any negotiation or deal are getting worse for Washington, as Kim accumulates more and more leverage.

But credit where credit is due: President Trump really did try to break the logjam in our relations with North Korea. In the end he was unsuccessful but he did try. Mr. Rogin noticed that as well:

It’s clear that the Biden administration has several foreign policy priorities, and that spending time, resources and political capital on the North Korea issue isn’t one of them. Trump failed on North Korea, but at least he tried. The Biden team is going to have to try harder, and they would be better off doing that sooner rather than later.

Do you see that as happening? Me, neither. I think they’ll wait for a crisis and, presumably, Mr. Kim will provide one in due course.