Most of Steven Taylor’s observations in his post-mortem of the Super Tuesday primaries at Outside the Beltway are commonsensical but I want to concur with his last observation in particular:
I think that the veep nominee has to be a either a woman or a minority (or a minority woman). I think more than that, the veep nominee has to be a non-septuagenarian. It, therefore, will not be Elizabeth Warren (that’s as bold a prediction as I am willing to make).
A couple of other remarks. First, if Biden becomes the nominee, whomever he picks for a running mate must be no worse a campaigner than he. That’s a very low bar but, since so many of those who’ve been running for president are such lousy campaigners, it bears mentioning.
Second, it has been my observation that the old rules about running mates are obsolete and that there has occasionally been a sort of aspirational quality to running mates. I don’t know what that would say about a prospective Joe Biden running mate. Biden may be a moderate by present-day Democratic officeholder standards but he’s still quite progressive—his ADA rating is a little higher than Barack Obama’s.
I was surprised to learn the life expected for a 77-year-old male is 10 years. (Biden is 77). For Bernie (78) it’s 9.43 years.
https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html
May the odds be ever in your favor…
For me, the most important factor in a VP is someone who can effectively run the government if Biden dies.
That’s statistically, i.e. over large numbers of people. For individuals it’s a lot harder to predict. Biden’s mother lived to 92 and his father to 86. Bernie Sanders’s parents both died at age 58.
My observation is that from age 0 to 16, your life expectancy is largely based on the care of your parents and modern medicine, from age 16 to 60, luck and behavior, and over 60 based on your genetics with a bit of past behavior thrown in. On that basis I think the odds of Bernie Sanders dropping dead tomorrow, not something I would wish for him, are pretty good.
I think one question is how bad politics is for longterm mental fitness. At least as its been played in my lifetime, a good politician stays on message, doesn’t deal in abstractions or recognize trade-offs, and ultimately exhibits a lack of curiousity beyond the course he has set.
Could you provide some examples of good and bad politicians based on that rubric?
As I said on an earlier thread Biden’s VP pick (should he actually make it to the convention alive and sane) may be the most momentous VP choice this country has seen since 1944. IMO it will be a minority, it will be someone who has run the country before and has ready willing and able allies entrenched in government and the media, who can ‘legally’ serve (ask Lawfare for their interpretation of the Constitution) when Biden steps down (probably within the year if not months), who was NOT in the 2020 primaries, who has huge name recognition and a national campaign organization ready to go, and who can fire up the ‘normal’ democratic base. Have I left anything out?
It may sound crazy, but when you have a Congress that came within one vote of putting the President under permanent investigation because they disliked the content of a phone call his foes deliberately misconstrued, yeah, maybe it’s not that crazy.
I suppose one could argue that politicians have uniquely immunized themselves from age-related decline in cognitive fluidity through systematic exposure to blockheadiness.
Good grief. Think I was going for “blockheadedness.” But that may not be quite the right word either. I’ll go ask Linus.
Is Hunter available?
“Bernie Sanders’s parents both died at age 58.”
And Bernie recently had a heart attack and says he might release his medical records sometime this year.
I hope Bernie loses the nomination. And I don’t wish ill on anyone, but it seems likely that this is his last hurrah.
I’m suspect of this amalgam argument on Pres and VP. Reminds me of a comment by the buyer at Home Depot, whom we supplied along with Lowe’s.
“Do you know what color you get when you mix blue and orange? Shit. Pick one of us. “ True story.
Biden is going to have to stand on his own two feet. Good luck.
Is the relevant observation life expectancy — or expected time before a CVD event or other ailment compromise the ability to fulfill the obligations of office?
In truth, I think Americans are being asked to take an unnecessary risk that their only choices for President will be 78, 82, 83 by 2024.
As you say.
“In truth, I think Americans are being asked to take an unnecessary risk that their only choices for President will be 78, 82, 83 by 2024.”
I think that’s an interesting comment. But it is too numerical, and not sufficiently qualitative. Joe is the one who is clearly in “transition.” Trump is not. He’s still with us, agree with his policy positions or personality defects or not. I find arguments that we elect a president who – predetermined – hands off to a well considered VP when he fully fails to be nothing short of bizarre.