Is President-Elect Trump’s saber-rattling on tariffs sincere or a negotiating tactic? Both?
I support tariffs on goods imported from China for the simple reason that I see no way that we will begin to rebuild our industrial productive capacity without them. But tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods? I oppose those.
Both
If the tariffs are just a bluff why would companies build new plants in the US, supposedly one of the reasons for tariffs? Anyway, fentanyl deaths are already rapidly dropping. I suspect his advisors know that. They will claim that the drop is due to threatening tariffs when they were already heading down. He will do the same with immigration, noting this at link. Remember that the guy is actually good at marketing. I remember scratching my head when he imposed tariffs on washing machines. Why washing machines? Turns out Samsung and LG had already committed, including buying land, to building plants in the US. By declaring the tariff he could claim it resulted in new plants being built.
“You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States. As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico-United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexican-president-harsh-takedown-trump-110000526.html
I think its primarily a negotiating tactic. In the first hundred days of his first term, Trump imposed tariffs and then started making deals with countries that would exempt them. When the U.S. won the airbus case before the WTO, it was authorized to impose 100% tariffs, but Trump imposed 10% on aircraft & 25% on agriculture. To get the NAFTA rewrite, I think he threatened tariffs against both Mexico and Canada.
There is always the possibility that a compromise can’t be reached and they stay. Biden maintained most Trump tariffs that were still in existence, but the airbus ones were suspended for five years, so they are “scheduled” to return in 2026.
It is the start of a dialog whose goals and results are unknown — since Trump is using his “black box” decision matrix.
What is interesting is all three didn’t expect they would be dealing with a 2nd Trump administration now. USMCA has a built-in 6 year review clause — to avoid a review if Trump had been reelected in 2020. I suspect Mexico would have treated its borders differently if it knew turning a blind eye would result in Trump’s mouth in the White House focusing on it for the next 4 years.
Its also true of China; would they have so casually junked the accord negotiated with Trump in 2020 if they knew he would be back in 2024. In some ways China is stronger than in 2020 but in many ways their economy is weaker and can ill afford 4 years of Trump undermining their economic confidence.
The reality is that the Chinese economy is very much stronger than the US economy, and if push comes to shove China can dispense with the US market. It would be painful, but not fatal to China if US-Chinese trade ceased. The US economy would, however, collapse. Apple, Walmart, GM, Intel… would all go bankrupt, and do so very quickly.
But US tariffs are really not the issue. The real issue is that Trump is installing warmongers and war criminals throughout his administration. Waltz and Gorka are prime examples. Gorka is actually criminally insane.
So, Trump is going to be a war president, hopefully not nuclear or world wide, but Ukraine and Palestine/Lebanon will most likely intensify, and Taiwan/Korea might pop off, too.
I meant to say earlier.
I don’t think you will see Canadian or Mexican tariffs. Posturing. But the C and M govs know they aren’t hollow threats. They don’t want to find out.