I am increasingly convinced that South Korea is successfully “bending the curve” on COVID-19, i.e. constraining the number of active cases to a fairly manageable level. Let’s do a little analysis, shall we? You can follow along at Worldometer.info if you care to.
On March 11, nearly two weeks ago, SK’s active cases peaked at 7,362. As of yesterday the number had declined to 5,884 (a difference of 1,478) through a combination of deaths (44) and recoveries (1,434). The number of deaths per day has not declined since about March 2. That has proceeded with an average of five per day since then.
At that pace it will take SK about 44 days before the number of active cases has dropped to zero. 220 more people will have died. That will be May 6.
Here in the United States we do not appear to be particularly close to being where SK is now or realistically even where SK was on March 2. Said another way unless something changes markedly it will be June before the COVID-19 outbreak here can be truly said to be under control. I don’t think the lockdowns, “shelter in place” directives, or other draconian measures that have been taken will hold until then.
I have a somewhat more optimistic take.
In Washington State where the outbreak struck first, new cases have plateaued for 7 days now — despite something like 5x increase in tests per day. So the curve is flattened, but not bent downward yet.
It suggests that measures taken so far can flatten or bend the curve down in most of the country.
The most serious situation is New York City – the acceleration in new cases is very concerning.
What are they doing? You either enforce a total quarantine with a sledge hammer, or you carve the quarantine problem into bite sized bits.
“I don’t think the lockdowns, “shelter in place†directives, or other draconian measures that have been taken will hold until then.”
Hell, they aren’t being honored now. I took a drive around town this morning to survey the situation. Never got out of the car, but saw a totally cavalier attitude about this. Its a sense of entitlement.
I think it’s more a Wile E. Coyote moment than “bending the curve”.
We’ll see what happens when the rather mild mitigation measures they’ve put in place are lifted. My general believe is that when something (like new COVID-19 cases) suddenly stops, it’s not real but an artifact.
Today I have a more optimistic attitude toward “social distancing”.
Although I still believe the young and active won’t hold that line long, the vulnerable group will. And so will merchants, hairdressers, dentists, and anyone who’s business involves the public’s trust.
The more the bulk of infections shifts toward the young and active, the less deaths, and over time, more immunity.
Lord, my hands are dry and crusty. If I have to keep this up another year….but then that’s part of the test, isn’t it?
You know, it really sucks to have to tell the people who are risking their health and that of their families that you are also cutting their pay by 50%. Better than being laid off entirely I guess.