or something like that. The Department of Labor has released its estimate of unemployment claims for this week. The number is essentially unchanged at 418,000, it has been at 400,000 or above for 15 weeks, and its current level is roughly where things stood in January of this year.
The recovery, such as it is, had its second anniversay this month. Recoveries don’t last forever and if previous post-war recoveries are any gauge we are at or near the apogee of this recovery. All other things being equal the economy is more likely to slow than to pick up steam or, if we are in a period of persistent doldrums as I’ve suspected for a long time, not get a lot worse but not get a lot better, either.
Can we all stop trying to figure out who shot John, stop trying to lay blame, and determine a way forward? With 18 million people either unemployed or marginally attached to the labor force who want jobs this is not a good place to be.
Unfortunately, the latest bumps of bad news look less like noise and more like signal.
I strongly share your sentiment. Unfortunately, the way forward isn’t clear and is likely to be very treacherous, so our political class and their partisan kool-aid drinkers will continue to circle jerk until the house comes crashing down.
“Can we all stop trying to figure out who shot John, stop trying to lay blame, and determine a way forward? With 18 million people either unemployed or marginally attached to the labor force who want jobs this is not a good place to be.”
This is just a variant of “can’t we all get along?”
Its pretty clear that the blog proprietor and numerous commenters cannot get their minds around the fact that the political climate – and those in power – can effect the decision making of the commercial class. Apparently the mercantiles are to simply act robotically as if in a vacuum. Well, we have a little test case going on. One view: the businessmen are acting rationally in the face of a hostile and uncertain posture from government (as well as the general economic environment). The other view: businessmen are crazy, idiotic or venal types who have no clue about the effect of public policy on their businesses.
Fortunately, this is all an empirical equation, so good luck with your views.
I saw today that yet another company is leaving the hostile environment of the former great state of IL. Stupid, irrational idiots………
No, it’s that I always thought that the prospect of being hanged focused the mind wonderfully. Apparently, not.
I’m not sure where that came from. I think you’re complaining about the same thing that I am. I’m just trying to avoid getting tied down in a finger-pointing session.
Remember, I am “the commercial class”. I’m small potatoes but I’m still in business and I think that my varied customer base and years of experience give me insight into a wide breadth of business perspectives on things.
Funny story that I don’t think I’ve mentioned. I just can’t help myself. Back when we were putting the addition on the house a couple of years back whenever our general contractor was there we’d chew the fat about the project, how he did business, the building contracting business, etc. By the time the addition was complete I’d had major influence on the technology of how he managed his projects. He was interacting more efficiently and easier with his subs.
I’d also taken over the purchasing end of the project from him and all of the subs. I was much better at it than they were. Saved a bundle. Got what we wanted.
The thing that amazes me is that there is tremendous data supporting the straight economic interpretation of a credit bust followed by a reduction in aggression demand.
But, we are told by some to skip that elephant in the room, and look for intangibles, things for which there never can be any data, any graphs, any proof.