At DC-based Al-Monitor a collection of pundits present their predictions for the Middle East in 2017. The overview is that 2017 will be a good deal like 2016; not much is likely to change. In Iraq one of the pundits predicts the expulsion of DAESH from Mosul in 2017 which, sadly, may be too optimistic. The tough fighting is just beginning and the Iraqi forces have taken heavy casualties as well as DAESH. I found this the most interesting prediction about Iraq:
A major conflict will erupt in 2017 between the Arabs and the Kurds over disputed areas. Violent conflicts will continue in minority areas in Iraq (Ninevah plain and Sinjar in Ninevah province). This will make it more difficult for displaced Christians, Yazidis and Shabaks to return to these regions. In light of the failure to preserve minority groups’ rights in the negotiations for peace agreements, minority groups that are involved with the conflict but not active participants will not be able to be part of the settlement process. Minorities could be kept on the sidelines while the fate of their homeland is determined in the post-IS phase.
With the developments in Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq the prospects for multi-ethnic, multi-confessional states in the Middle East seem to grow dimmer with each passing day.
The collected predictions are here (PDF).
I have a bad feeling we are moving beyond worrying about Syria and Iraq into worrying about Egypt and Turkey. The possibilities for a refugee disaster in a collapsing Egypt just boggle the mind. Libya’s population is 6 million, Syria’s is 22 million, Egypt’s is 80 plus.
Given Putin’s success in electing Trump, and Trump’s hostility/ignorance/randomness toward NATO, Turkey may be the worst of it, from a strategic point of view. If Turkey leaves NATO, or NATO implodes, Putin could end up with free passage through the Bosporous. A strong US president could hold NATO together, the stooge we have can do nothing but harm. Fingers crossed for Angela Merkel – she screwed up very badly, but she’s a smart person, a strong, capable leader despite that. It’s largely on her now to keep NATO and the EU alive, and to manage it without help from us, and perhaps with active opposition from us.
My list of potential WTF foreign disasters in the next 4 years goes: 1) Pakistan collapse, 2) Egypt regime collapse and/or civil war, 3) North Korea nukes and/or regime failure, 4) Balkans invasion by Putin, 5) Taiwan fight with PRC, potentially leading to actual war, 6) major domestic terror attack, 7) Venezuela collapse, 8) some other damned thing.
Thank God we have an illiterate, ineducable man-baby in charge surrounded by Nazis, morons and thieves. At least we can rest assured that the Twitter insults will continue to flow.
Michael:
In reaction to the hot spots you’ve noted, let me throw in my two cents.
1) Pakistan collapse
I doubt that Pakistan will collapse any more than it already has. My favorite description of Pakistan is that it’s a government without a country. Nearly half of Pakistan is outside the control of the Islamabad government. What is there to collapse? Besides, it’s India’s problem and India is quite capable of dealing with it.
2) Egypt regime collapse and/or civil war
It’s a real possibility and would pose enormous problems for Europe.
3) North Korea nukes and/or regime failure
NK already has nukes and IMO regime failure there is just about a done deal.
4) Balkans invasion by Putin
Baltic invasion is more likely than Balkan and I don’t think that’s very likely.
5) Taiwan fight with PRC, potentially leading to actual war
Unless the CCP loses its collective mind, I doubt it. The worst possible outcome would be for PRC to attack Taiwan and be repelled which is an actual possibility. China’s leaders are more risk averse than that.
6) major domestic terror attack
Depending on your definition, again I think that’s a done deal. We could mitigate the risks but we won’t.
7) Venezuela collapse
Again, a done deal. I’m surprised it’s lasted this long. It illustrates the Venezuelan people’s tolerance level for misery.
2, 3, 4, 6, 7 are areas weakened by the current president’s mind set and exercise (or resistance to engage in) in competent foreign policy exchanges and/or negotiations. The word “inherit” was mightily used to retroactively blame Obama’s predecessor for all his domestic problems. IMO it will also be applicable, by the new POTUS, as he is faced with bad actors, leary allies, and the ME mess gifted him on day 1.
Oops. Balkan, Baltic, they both start with B. Obviously yes, I meant Baltics. Although Romania isn’t entirely safe.
It’s always a good bet to be pessimistic about anything in the MENA region.
Compare to these hotspots, I think the obvious WTF disaster in waiting is the EU. It’s not a matter of if but when. The U.K. is already getting out, France, a nuclear power, has been under a state of emergency for a year, does that sound like a stable country? And Italy and Greece are still bankrupt. Notice the supposed savior, Merkel, had a hand in each of these crisis. Unlike the other problems, an imploding EU could set off a recession here.
I like what Al-Monitor did here, I wonder if anyone else did similar things for other regions, certainly seeing what Europe, Asia Pacific and Americas would be enlightening.
The ME has been a mess for many, many years. While W gets extra credit for destabilizing the area with the Iraq invasion, and it certainly lead to the problems we have in Syria, those were all unstable areas anyway. Who knows what would have happened when Saddam croaked and his sons tried to take over. The Kurds have been a potential problem for Turkey and Iraq for years. Turkey has had a bad long term trend for years. Israel has increasingly been taken over by its hardliners, and really, which country in the area can you say anything good about?
Still, we have benefitted from a fairly conservative approach to the area w/o too much of an on the ground commitment, probably the minimal we could have, given our domestic politics. Have to worry about who that changes now, especially with the anti-Iran people coming into office.
Steve
Well, one man’s recession is another man’s opportunity. Imagine what Italian real estate will cost if the Euro is replaced by the Lira. This my current wet dream, an 8 bedroom castle in Liguria that comes with its own chapel where I could sacrifice goats and local orphans to Satan. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-54672101.html Five minute walk to the village to get a decent espresso. Easy drives to Genoa, Milan, Nice, Monaco. Even Geneva and Zurich are only four hours’ drive, assuming I drive like an Italian (and I do.) It’s at 1.4 million USD now against a severely devalued Euro. Against a brand new Lira? Bet I could get it for 900 grand.
I believe I’d style myself as the Marchesi di Isola Cantone. Whose going to argue when you actually own a chapel?
We are a lot less exposed to European, Asian, South American, or African recessions than they are to ours. That’s what happens when (like the U. S.) you run a trade deficit with just about everybody.
For the last couple of years I’ve been working closely with several U. S. firms that have all of their manufacturing done in China. They’re very enthusiastic about their Chinese vendors.
They’re actively pursuing second sources including in the U. S. That’s the prudent course of action and I encourage it.
Pakistani and a North Korea would top my list, because in each case we would get involved. China seems likely too, but reacting to a rational actor rather than chaos seems easier.
A European incident, probably the collapse of the EU, would be other me less since we won’t have any idea what to do (not even bad ideas!), and I can weather the storm.
The Baltics are fvcked, but when haven’t they been? This is going to be like the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, where we accidentally sent encouraging signals, but I don’t see President Trump doing anything other than claiming a victory somehow,
The Kurds, I suspect, will somehow do well. Kurdistan would destabilize Turkey further, and slice Iraq down so it cannot oppose Iran. Both of these are in Russia’s interests, and the Kurds have been out allies for ages with little to show for it, so it will seem like the right thing to do — given that the Mideast is a perpetual sh.tshow anyway, I say, good for them. I’m an optimist at heart. Go Kurds.
Michael reynolds: local orphans if only you could get organic, grass fed, free range, locally sourced orphans. Artisinally dressed in bespoke clothing. Now, that would be living.
Gus:
First I need the orphans to dig a moat. It’s not a castle without a moat.
Michael,
Italy? What happened with New Zealand? Ideally you could do both and change with the seasons.
#onepercenterproblems
Andy:
Well, the first thing I did was to ensure that I can get a residency visa in various places. It turns out if you have any kind of income pretty much every country will have you. It’s almost as if there are two entirely different systems, one for poor people, who are generally invited to eff off and swim home, and one for people with means, who are met at the border by dancing girls, hors d’oeuvres and an open bar. Shocking, I know.
Thus reassured it came down to details. The biggest being that my youngest still has two years of high school. If at some point my disgust with this country outweighs my daughter’s school thing, it turns out to be quite easy to bail.
As for NZ, it’s a stunning country with lovely people. (Coincidentally, my best literary event ever was in Auckland.) But I have a short attention span and I really crave a target-rich environment, some place with lots of other places nearby. Other than Hobbiton and Mordor there’s not that much going on in NZ. If it were up to me I’d buy a car in Germany and my wife and I would just drive for a couple of years. But Katherine, while happy to wander, still has this inexplicable need to have a ‘home’ somewhere. It’s the eternal conflict of a mixed marriage – wandering Jew and shiksa.
Michael, it’s a built-in nesting instinct that most women have in having at least a symbolic place they can call “home.”