Saving the Planet or Saving People?

In a post at Persuasion self-described “climate activist” Quico Toro asks whether it’s possible to “stabilize the climate” without immiserating billions of people? In making his argument he displays a chart which should give us pause:

He then lurches uncontrollably, as John McLaughlin used to say, into the position I’ve argued for decades: to whatever extent carbon emissions are a problem their effects can only be mitigated not ended.

In musing over his post I want to provide one correction and some observations. My correction is that the earth’s climate has never been stable and cannot be stabilized without killing everything on the plant. If Mr. Toro is using “stabilized” as shorthand, he doesn’t explain it. I assume he is. If “stabilize” means holding key climate variables within a bounded range then the question becomes one of cost and distribution not absolute possibility.

But since no source is provided, the reader is left in the position of being asked to accept the conclusion without being able to evaluate the evidence. Fortunately, this particular point does not depend on his graphic. It is already well-established that as countries industrialize and improve living standards, their energy use and therefore carbon emissions tend to rise.

From that, several implications follow. First, it is not realistic to suppose that the “rich countries”, viz. the United States, Canada, and the European Union, can solve whatever problem carbon emissions produce simply by eliminating their own emissions. Even complete decarbonization on their part would be insufficient without similar changes elsewhere. Second, among poorer countries, those that have most successfully improved the condition of their populations are generally those with higher emissions. Development and emissions, at least under current technological constraints, go together.

A genuine solution, therefore, must align with the incentives facing developing countries rather than working against them. One possibility would be the development of inexpensive technologies for extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and converting it into products with real economic value, products that poorer countries could produce and sell. The basic technology for extracting carbon dioxide already exists. The challenge is to make it inexpensive and to tie it to a viable market. Do that and even the poorest countries would have a reason to adopt it.