Russia’s Grand Strategy

While I was puttering around on RAND’s site, I came across this document which I found interesting: “Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality”. I materially agree with their findings. Here is a summary of those findings:

• Russia’s actions are materially aligned with what they have declared as their grand strategy. The alignment is not perfect but largely perfect.
• The Russians believe that the global order is in transition. The “unipolar” world with the United States a the sole superpower has failed and it collapsing and will be replaced by a multipolar world. Imagine the U. S. as a “soft empire”. Several rebellious provinces of which Russia is one are seceding from that empire.
• Russia sees itself as major power.
• Russia should be recognized as a major power.
• Russia sees itself as the natural leader of the Eurasian region, essentially a bridge between Europe and the Far East.
• Russia intends to forge partnerships with other “rebellious provinces”, the “new centers of power”. Those include China, India, and Brazil among others.
• Russia is open to selective cooperation with the West.
• Threats to Russia include NATO force posture enhancements, Western use of non-military measures to promote instability, terrorism, cyberattacks, etc.

By “agree with their findings” mean that I agree that’s what the Russians think rather than I think that what the Russians believe is necessarily true.

It should be noted that their observation about Russia, to the effect that Russia’s words are consistent with its pursuit of its grand strategy, places Russia in stark contrast with the U. S. We have a grand strategy but it is an emergent strategy. Consequently, the statements of our political leaders may or may not be aligned with that strategy. Shorter: you can’t place too much weight on what we say. We don’t do what we say.