You might be interested in Karl Rove’s predictions for 2022, published in the Wall Street Journal:
Now my bets for 2022. Republicans take the House, picking up slightly fewer seats than the post-World War II midterm average of 30—but only because they got a head start by gaining 13 seats in 2020. The Senate becomes Republican by a seat or two.
Democrats gain governor’s offices but lose ground in state legislative races. Republican secretary of state candidates lose in at least three of these states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada. Mr. Biden’s approval rating at year’s end is 45% or below. Today, about 30% of Americans say our country is on the right track while 62% say it’s going in the wrong direction. That improves but is still upside down at year’s end.
Inflation falls slightly from today’s 6.8% yet rises faster than wages. Growth softens from 2021’s 5.6%. Unemployment ends 2022 slightly lower than the current 4.2%. Covid persists with more variants, but will be a dramatically less significant issue by year’s end. Public-school enrollment won’t reach pre-pandemic levels.
The Supreme Court will significantly weaken Roe v. Wade but not overturn it outright; states will be allowed to define more of their abortion policies. “Abortion rights†becomes the left’s rallying cry but is only a minor electoral advantage.
The Jan. 6 Committee finds that groups deliberately planned violence for that day and the Willard Hotel Trump command center knew in advance there would be violence. Hundreds of defendants plead guilty or are convicted; few are acquitted. The Supreme Court slaps down Mr. Trump’s attempt to hide documents.
Russia doesn’t subjugate Ukraine but keeps applying enormous pressure on Kyiv and the West, since Vladimir Putin views the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as an existential threat and convenient villain to rally support at home. China and North Korea perceive American weakness and increase hostile actions in the far Pacific. Taiwan becomes a flashpoint. The left-wing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the Brazilian presidency.
Statistically, it’s likely the Republicans will gain majorities in both houses of Congress. I think his predictions on inflation, R v. W, and Russia are about right.
My take on Rove’s analysis:
The House will most assuredly be controlled by the R’s. The Senate, to me, is less of a done-deal for them
I don’t see a big loss for R’s in either the Governor or SOS races. In fact there are coordinated efforts being made to do just the reverse of that prediction.
The R vs W prediction I agree with
The J6 committee has so overstepped it’s bounds – from exercising too zealous of a subpoena power, omitting some of the most photographed and prominent figures seen verbally incentivizing the Capitol breach from testifying (The Daily Mail is just starting to investigate one of these figures – Ray Epps); the Pelosi selection of biased committee members; cherry-picking, propagandizing and politicizing the entire event in order to help stave off a midterm crisis for the Dems. 14,000 hours of video has been withheld by the Dems. While dots between the October MI kidnapping event and the J6 one are being connected, the MSM says nothing but harp on Trump supporters being the culprits. These dots include direct ties between the FBI, their infiltration of militia groups and the slew of informants they solicited to orchestrate the MI event and then turn an otherwise “peacefulâ€protest, on January 6, into a “riot.†Trump’s speech, in fact, overlapped a full half hour, when some of the most violently actions were happening at the Capitol. Precise timelines verify these details. People walking back from the eclipse gathering saw barriers removed and police waving them into the government building. Many were eventually arrested thru photo ID, tracked down to their residential addresses by a dozen or so armed officers and dragged off to jail – some kept in isolation for almost a year for misdemeanors like trespassing and taking selfies inside the Capitol. There is so much more to this staged fiasco than is being seriously investigated and reported by a ludicrous partisan panel of anti Trumpers and the complicit corporate-run press.
I think Russia is playing the cards it has to keep itself in power – stoking fear to keep it’s image of strength and fearlessness. As for China, it views Biden as a compromised patsy – someone they own through years and years of his and his son’s self-serving corrupt practices.
This is how the average DC J6 prisoner is treated. Usually it’s a person with no arrest record, some are decorated vets, grannies, most just ordinary citizens.
†Eleven months ago Jorden was ripped from our family. He was moved to 4 different prisons until he finally reached his 5th one in DC. In the beginning of him being there he was locked down for 14 days in a cell for 24 hours each day, because he caught COVID. When he was released from medical, he was in solitary confinement for 23 hours & only allowed out for 1 hour per day. That is mentally & emotionally abusive.
He is denied to finish his education, get a haircut or shave (he can use Nair to chemically burn his hair off), nail clippers just anything to do with proper hygiene, no visitations, no video call visits, just phone calls, no religious services, no proper medical care unless you get the vaccine! Jorden has lost about 30 to 35 pounds since being there due to malnourishment.â€
Their treatment is reminiscent of what the Iran hostages suffered – from a regime we considered to be tyrannical. Are we turning into one? Or, is this just a selective type of justice – one where Antifa, BLM or the WI Christmas Parade murderer are briefly jailed, and then released for the property destruction or injurious crimes caused by them to others
Rove is too optimistic about Republicans in the Senate.
I still see Republicans having to defend WI, IW, OH, PA, NC, FL (and 3 have retiring incumbents). Democrats have a smaller field to defend NV, AZ, GA, NH (with no retiring incumbents). That’s a recipe for Democratic gains of 1-2 seats.
I already given my prediction on inflation.
The bigger event for the Judiciary is Justice’s Souter’s retirement next summer.
At Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball they’re basically saying that Democrats need to sweep the toss-ups to hold the Senate.