Megan McArdle tries to do a sort of status report of the PPACA which is darned hard to do because the facts and figures coming out about it are so sparse and there’s still so much up in the air:
Compared to last year, Obamacare’s 2015 open enrollment is a boring story — no spectacular IT failures, no politically charged policy cancellations. And as Obamacare wends to the end of its second open-enrollment period, it would seem that we should know more about the shape of the final program. What have we learned so far?
The answer is “less than you’d think.” Here’s what we do know so far. There have been about 7.8 million confirmed enrollments or renewals in qualified health plans. Vermont is not going to have single payer. More insurers are entering many markets, but some insurers have already run into trouble. Data on the uninsured is somewhat scarce, but my best guess, based on the Gallup numbers, is that about 4 percent of the population has gotten insured since Obamacare started, or roughly 10 million to 12 million people.
On the other hand, much about the future of the Affordable Care Act remains murky.
and goes on to list some of the “things we still don’t know”.
I think she underemphasizes pickle the state are in. What will the states do when the Medicaid stipend they’re receiving from the federal government runs out? Most simply do not have the money to pick up the slack.
As to this comment regarding King v. Burwell:
If the plaintiffs win in King v. Burwell, subsidies will disappear in the majority of states, at least until they set up their own exchanges (an expensive proposition, since the law’s startup funding will have expired by the time the case is decided).
Illinois is one of those states and I would be greatly surprised if Illinois sets up its own exchanges. The little feeder site it did set up with federal money was incredibly expensive (while not doing a great deal), the new governor is trying to cut back on the state’s expenses rather than expanding them, and the federal grants for building the exchanges are no longer available. I think it will be a hard sell.
I had mentioned awhile back that I was working with a number of healthcare professionals. It has nothing to do with ObamCare but I took the time to chat them up about that. Out of about 30, only 1 seemed to have any use for it. This tends to get explained away as ” they don’t know how it’s supposed work” by apologists. That sounds an awful like the recent election where Dems would have us believe the the electorate was brainwashed or is stupid.
I suppose the notion that it’s too nearly is true as far as it goes, but all signs appear to be flashing red.
Drew,
To be honest, I am a bit more skeptical than usual when it comes to the opinions of health care professionals considering how much they benefit from the present system.