Redoubling

I detect a note of serious concern in the editors’ of the Washington Post’s remarks about Ukraine:

With the invasion now nearly four months old and at an inflection point — between its initial shocks and a longer-term grind — the United States and its allies must learn the right lessons and draw the right conclusions. The first is to take seriously both Russia’s intentions and its capabilities. Mr. Putin still considers all Ukraine to be Russian, as he indicated in a June 9 speech likening his current war to Peter the Great’s 18th-century campaign to retake territory from the Swedish Empire. Despite the vast losses of men and materiel Mr. Putin has already sustained, the Russian military retains an advantage over Ukraine in heavy weaponry crucial to the fight: planes, tanks and artillery.

The second of their “right conclusions” is that we need to persevere. They urge us to redouble aid to Ukraine. They hint at the reason for their concern in their conclusion:

A stalemated war could give Russia time to consolidate its territorial gains — and foment division within Western ranks. Hastening and broadening military aid to Kyiv is the best way to prevent that.

I made the same observation a few days ago although perhaps a bit more stridently. Time is not on the Ukrainians’ side. At this point almost 20% of the population has fled—to neighboring EU countries, to Moldova, internally, and even to Russia. We can’t be certain of their military casualties because the Ukrainians, reasonably enough, are not forthcoming about them but it can reasonably be assumed that at least 10% of their military and possibly many more are hors de combat. The Russians have actually profited during the sanctions, largely due to the increased prices of oil and gas. We don’t know how many Russian soldiers are out of action, either. Their military is four times the size of Ukraine’s at least. China has just restated its support for the Russians.

The more protracted the conflict is the more Ukrainian territory the Russians are likely to take and the weaker the Ukrainians’ position.

Who is the “we” of whom the WaPo’s editors speak? The editors of the Wall Street Journal observe that at this point it’s largely the United States:

A new working report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute, sheds light on the issue. It’s clear that many countries are significantly helping Ukraine while others are mostly talking since the war began.

“In total, we trace €85 billion in government-to-government commitments from January 24, 2022, until June 7,” the paper reports. The totals are a combination of financial, humanitarian and military assistance.

The U.S. remains the biggest overall contributor, with €42.7 billion, or about half of the commitments, while the EU has ponied up €27.2 billion across countries and European institutions. “It is remarkable that the US alone has committed considerably more than all EU countries combined, in whose immediate neighborhood the war is raging,” the paper notes.

Commitments are also distinct from what actually arrives. Washington has delivered only 48% of its disclosed “military in-kind aid”—that is, military assistance that excludes financial aid for military purposes. (The nearby chart shows the relative amount of military-in-kind aid through June 7.) Only some 10% of American aid comes directly in the form of material or equipment like missiles or helicopters, but the U.S. still outpaces every other nation. Poland is a close second, having sent all of what it promised. It’s followed by the United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, Estonia and Latvia.

Why are France and Germany laying back? Is it yet another instance of the U. S. standing up so they can stand down? Are they waiting to see what happens, hedging their bets? Or are they just not particularly concerned?