Read this article at Larry Sabato’s Crystall Ball on those who voted for Obama in 2012 who then voted for Trump in 2016 and then answer the following questions.
How good a predictor is a presidential election for the mid-terms? I would say they’re lousy.
How likely is it that those who cast a protect vote for Obama in 2008 and for Trump in 2016 will be satisfied with the changes that have occurred since his election?
How likely is it that they’ll vote?
Plus, historically there are usually losses to the President’s party in the mid-terms after an election. But Trump’s election was ahistorical, and the Democrats seem determined to continue scoring own goals, so who knows.
I continue to hope that the Democrats will pull their collective heads out of their own nether regions and take the house – not because I like the Democrats, but because in the current situation I much prefer divided government.
I can think of very little more likely to result in Trump’s re-election in 2020 than Democrats taking the House in 2018 and then resuming their “resistance” activities there, presumably including impeaching Trump. Is it politically possible for them to take the House in 2018 and not impeach Trump? I think they’d have rebellion from the base.
I think the impeachment danger is not that Trump gets impeached, but that the Democrats go too far and impeach solely on partisan lines which would be viewed as illegitimate by a large swath of the country. That could potentially be a Rubicon moment as it would set a precedent that impeachment is just another partisan tool.
I tend to think that won’t happen though as I don’t think the Democrats will have the votes – at least as things currently stand. Much depends on the outcomes of the various investigations.
Maybe the status quo is less risky as the Senate can still enable divided government.
There are 42(*) Republican seats in the House that at least one of the five main projection sites have listed as toss-up (32) or worse (10) for the Republicans. That’s much worse than when I last looked when it was just shy of the 25 needed to shift control. I would pick Democrats to take control at this point, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.
(*) Includes two PA seats that Wikipedia identifies as “new” and without an incumbent. I’m assuming these are currently Republican seats.
They’re seats that resulted from the court-ordered redistricting. Under the old borders they were held by Republicans. Now, who knows?
IMO the Democrats will pick up seats but may not control the House outright. Too early to tell and too many variables to predict.
Yeah, the PA redistricting messed with my approach, which is to assume Democrats retain all their seats and Republicans lose all toss-ups.
I think local matchups play a more important part than is usually discussed, which is why I like to look at district specific descriptions, but I don’t know how well Cook, Sabato and others can have a feel for that kind of stuff.
The Presidential approval rating is a good indicator of midterm results.
According to RCP, Trump is at 43-44, which is about where he was during his first 100 days, and much better then 38 just after the Alabama senate special election.
43-44 is better then the upper 30’s that George Bush had in 2006 and the 40-42 that Obama had in 2010. But its far short of the high 50’s George Bush had in 2002 and Clinton had in 1998.
In short if the election was held right now the results would be terrible for Republicans, but just fall short of a catacylsm.
Will Trumps continue to improve or will it peter out in the next couple of months?
I think there’s something Trump is aware of that his opponents too frequently ignore. What matters is your approval rating in October.
The issue is NOT Democrat vs. Republican, it is Deep State/Cabal vs. Americans. Just today, the Deep State/Cabal successfully maneuvered Trump into cancelling the summit with Kim. They (Bolton, Pence, et al.) did this by provoking Kim and his ministers by threatening to murder Kim and his familty, the so-called Libyan option.
Wake up! The Deep State/Cabal is the main threat to us and our families. Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Hillary, Obama (whoever or whatever he is), Bolton, Nuland, the fake American neocons—they are our mortal enemies.
Get an AR 15, a few thousand rounds, and learn how to use it.
Andy wrote: “Plus, historically there are usually losses to the President’s party in the mid-terms after an election.”
Understand that I’m not picking on Andy but I’ve been hearing this misleading bullshit a lot. Let’s go to the videotape. Since 1982 the record for Republicans in the first mid-term of an administration is -26, -8, and +8. For the Democrats it is -54 and -63.
For all mid-terms since 1982 the Republicans are +138 and the Democrats are +75.