Radicalism and the 90-90 rule

There’s a rule-of-thumb in software development called the 90-90 rule usually stated as “The first 90% of the code accounts for the first 90% of the development time. The remaining 10% of the code accounts for the other 90% of the development time” and attributed to Tom Cargill of Bell Labs. This may also be related to Sturgeon’s Law. Well then why not just dump the 10% and leave the 90%? The painful answer is that the two are inseparable.

I also have another famous quote for you: “The people is the sea in which the People’s Army [i.e. revolutionaries] swim”. This is usually attributed to Mao Tse Tung but I actually believe its author is Lin Piao.

Now I have some questions and they’re questions that I want to admit up front that I have no answers for. What proportion of a group have to be terrorists or people who tacitly support terrorism before the group becomes a danger? Is it possible to catch the fish without draining the sea?

In his post today Michael J. Totten offers some advice to the Dutch people:

So here’s some free advice: Isolate, imprison, deport, or kill (if it comes to that) the extremists. Liberalize those who remain. Otherwise, brace for hell.

Of Michael I ask the question, are the extremists separable?

3 comments… add one
  • That would depend on the morality of the group and whether they defer from committing acts of terror themselves only due to cowardice or out of revulsion.

    Those who call for acts of terror, encourage or incite it through fatwas or religious sermons, contribute to it financially or shelter terrorists are, in my view, legitimate targets. If we can target factories that produce weapons during wartime we can certainly zap those folks who help create the suicide-bombers.

  • Mark, my point is that you just can’t tell. That’s the problem they’re having in Fallujah right now. Are the guys who are fleeing civilians or terrorists? Not having a gun in your hand just means that you’re not a danger now. Not that you weren’t twenty minutes ago or won’t be an hour from now.

  • The extremists are the paramilitary wing of a world-wide jihad that’s supported by states like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The governments of these states provide the propaganda and the training. Their state-supported mullahs supply the philosophy, the hate, and the justification that legitimizes the paramilitaries.

    Most people who have spent time in Muslim cultures are shocked by how apathetic followers can be. I think a large percentage of ‘moderate’ Muslims are like Europeans before the beginning of WWII. They don’t actively participate in this growing fascist movement, but they’re too afraid, or too apathetic, to do anything to change it. Others may also be aware that Islamic societies are generally unsuccessful. Like pre-WWII Euros, they may see the current fascist jihad as their only hope to gain power in the world.

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