Is President Trump risk-seeking or risk-averse?
As I’ve said many times in the past my insight into his thought processes is very limited.
Please support you answer with examples.
IMO a lot in the U. S. war with Iran depends on the answer to that question.
Both. But how he decides to be either is opaque.
Examples of being risk adverse — his slow push to withdraw from Afghanistan. Or his non-response when Iran attacked Saudi Arabia around 2019.
Him taking risks — assassinating Solemeni, starting this war with Iran, Venezuela.
I think that’s probably the best answer, CuriousOnlooker.
I suspect he’s personally risk-averse (his self-acknowledged “germaphobia”) but risk-seeking in other areas.
I’m sensing that in his second term he’s more aware of the shortening window of time and his own mortality. He carries himself now with a fatalism that seems grim.
He’s moving quickly to carve his legacy and is open to more risk than in the past.
If you aren’t aware, four of his cabinet members have moved onto military bases due to Cartel threats. The tension is palpable. He’s going to move quickly now against the government of Cuba and the Cartels simultaneously.
I don’t know how successful he will be but it’s coming.
I mostly agree with curious, but would add that “risk” is subjective. What may look risky to us may not to Trump.
Also, who bears the risk? I think a lot of what Trump does is risky, but not for Trump personally. IOW, Trump seems pretty good at ensuring costs falls on others.
To the best of my knowledge only Pam Bondi relocated to a military base due to cartel threats. IMO one is enough. Others including Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth are also living on military bases.
IMO we should be working with the Mexican government to uproot their cartels. Enough is enough. If Mexico demurs let the chips fall where they may. Large, independent foreign criminal gangs cannot be allowed to make credible threats against cabinet members without suitable action from the United States.
I think Andy is spot on. He is very risk averse if he thinks it will harm himself. I dont know how good he is at evaluating risk for himself but if he guesses wrong he bails quickly but he is also permanently lawyered up to a degree not equaled by many other people so he can wiggle out of stuff others cannot. (Note that through his many (6) bankruptcies his personal assets were mostly intact.) When it comes to risks for others, including the US, I dont know if he is very good at evaluating risk but I suspect he is not. He certainly has lots of ego and thinks he is smarter than everyone else and he has surrounded himself with sycophants so I dont see any of them really emphasizing risks.
In theory I would hope Cain (sp?) is going over risks but McMaster wrote an entire book about our military leaders not being honest about risks and outcomes in order to retain personal power and power for their individual services. We also have plenty of top military leaders who really emphasize the “can do” spirit and just wont admit that any given mission is not appropriate or something they cant really do. Think back on all of the plans our military leaders kept coming up with that “this time” were going to turn the Afghans into a real military fighting force. It probably doesnt help that low risk missions like Venezuela or Solemeni went well so he assumes everything else will also.
Steve
You raised a number of very good points in that comment, steve.
First, I think that President Trump is chafing over the criticism he received for not doing anything during the recent demonstrations in Iran. CuriousOnlooker alluded to that.
Second, military doctrine cannot be exported. To be effective it must be suited to the society using it. Not only is Afghan society wildly different from U. S. society there is no unitary “Afghan society”. There are a bunch of little societies, each different from the other, some in major ways.
While everybody is playing 2D chess, Trump is playing 4D tic-tac-toe. We cannot fathom how his mind works.