Putting Humpty Together

I frequently allude here to the classic movie, The Red Shoes. To refresh your memory at the end of the movie, despite the prima ballerina having committed suicide the performance of her ballet goes on, a member of the company carrying her red shoes to the places on the stage she would have been. She’s not there but her presence is unmistakeable. The reason I refer to it is that it confers meaning on things that would otherwise be surreal.

Like today’s editorial by the editors of the Washington Post, who never met a war they didn’t like. Consider this passage:

LIBYA, WHICH has lived with civil war off and on since 2011, now is on the brink of joining Syria as the site of a major multinational conflict. Last Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he would ask his parliament as soon as this week to authorize the deployment of Turkish troops to defend Libya’s Tripoli-based government. The intervention is a response to the appearance of more than 1,000 Russian mercenaries in the ranks of rebel forces besieging the capital — something that has caused a shift in front lines for the first time in months.

Also pouring in resources to the insurgency led by warlord Khalifa Hifter are Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, France and Jordan, according to a recent U.N. report. Qatar has joined Turkey in backing the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Both sides are now equipped with fleets of drones that have caused extensive civilian casualties. The escalation of fighting could touch off a new wave of refugees to Europe and allow a Libya-based Islamic State affiliate to gain ground.

What is absent from that passage yet evident everywhere? Could it be that the United States joined Britain and France to provide air support to the forces rebelling against Moammar Qaddafi’s regime and that without U. S. support for the rebels that regime would undoubtedly still be in power? The Brits and French couldn’t sustain an air campaign for more than a few days and without that air campaign Qaddafi would unquestionably have deployed his own air force against the rebels.

Adding insult to injury our campaign was a violation of the Security Council resolution which authorized us only to protect civilians, not to bring down the Qaddafi regime. Much of Russia’s subsequent actions in the Middle East are a specific response to that. Russia had voted in support of that resolution (China abstained). They learned that our good faith could not be relied on.

Now after nearly a decade of misery and chaos in Libya with torture, extrajudicial executions, and slaves being sold in Libya’s town squares, the editors feign innocence.

The lesson of Libya is that liberal interventionism is no more able to create liberal democratic governments in places where there is little domestic support for them than neoconservative interventionism is. We can defeat armies; we can occupy countries; we can maintain a shaky peace as long as we’re willing to maintain a sufficient troop presence and take the casualties. We cannot create liberal democratic governments.

We surrendered any moral authority to produce peace in Libya nearly a decade ago. What should we do now? Maintain a low profile. We certainly shouldn’t lead any stabilization efforts.

9 comments… add one
  • bob sykes Link

    America’s foreign and defense policies have been controlled by actual, Nuremberg-style, war criminals for a very long time. I don’t believe any President has had control of the military, intelligence services or State department since Eisenhower. I think the MIC killed JFK and RFK, because they wouldn’t obey.

    But in this instance, Erdogan’s behavior is confusing. He is risking at least a proxy war with Egypt, and maybe an actual war. He is already bogged down with the Kurds in both Iraq and Syria. What possible benefit does Turkey get out of this? The US is also backing Haftar, so maybe it’s just about spite. But if Turkey and Egypt go to war over Libya, what will we do?

  • Grey Shambler Link

    So far by Erdogan it’s only words, maybe the message is for Putin. But the refugee crisis is about to get a lot worse, he doesn’t feel Europeans are spending enough to help him house and feed them. Hot mess.

  • steve Link

    Think Turkey has decided that they want to be the dominant player in that area. Erdogan wants to be BMOC. Not sure what his plans are vis a vis Russia. What we should do is stay out of it. Look at the group involved here. When you lie down with dogs you get up with fleas. (Dave’s dogs excepted of course! With that kind of fur I would think fleas would be awful if they got them.)

    Steve

  • Grey Shambler Link

    And ask any of these Governments, they will tell you they fight the War on Terror. One man’s Terrorist…..

  • TarsTarkas Link

    Erdogan’s regime is day by day becoming more and more precarious. IMO this is an attempt to rally people around the flag, a la Argentina and the Falklands. Egypt by virtue of a common border with Libya is justifiably alarmed by this threat. This is a very confusing hot mess with no real good guys. IMO the POTUS should stay TF out of it, and I suspect he probably will stay out. Libya isn’t that big a player in the oil markets any more, stabilization of which would be the only reason to intervene.

  • I don’t think that this is that complicated. Erdogan, the mullahs, and the Sauds all want to be the uncontested leaders of the ummah. The Sauds hold a two-fold advantage: one way of viewing Islam is as a stalking horse for Arab culture but the Turks and Iranians aren’t Arabs and for the Sauds it’s literally a matter of life and death.

    That means that Erdogan and the mullahs need to be more aggressive so that’s what they’re doing.

  • Greyshambler Link

    But what then is Russia doing?

  • Basically, the stuff we should be doing if we weren’t so committed to acting like idiots—stabilization, cultivating alliances, etc. Keep in mind that the Middle East/West Asia is Russia’s “near abroad”. The contest among Erdogan, the mullahs, and the Sauds getting out of hand is even less appealing to the Russians than it is to us.

  • Greyshambler Link

    Election scandals, nation building, regime change, corporate globalization, political gridlock. How long can we defend our system of governance vs Xi or Putin?

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