I believe that presidential politics has a sort of physics to it. The priorities of presidential politics are:
- Get elected
- Get re-elected
- Fight fires
Pretty much in that order. Most recent presidents have thrown a sop to their nominal base early in their first terms. With Bill Clinton it was gays in the military (he brought the subject up in the very first press conference he gave after being elected). With George W. Bush it was tax cuts. I interpret that as an instantiation of priority #2.
At this point we can only speculate about what sop Barack Obama will throw to his base. It’ll probably tell us a lot about whom he thinks his base is and what he thinks he needs to do to hold them.
Remember these priorities when evaluating what President Elect and then President Obama does over the next few months.
My guesses, in order of likelihood, are:
1. Close GTMO
2. Gun control
3. Some sop to pro choice groups
4. Gay marriage or some other sop to LGBT activists
5. Reparations or some other sop to black activists (if it’s a smaller thing than reparations, it would be higher up the list)
Whether these are likely to be effectively implemented is another thing, but I didn’t read your post as having that as a consideration.
I think that closing the Guantanamo detention facility is an extremely likely pick. The symbolism’s great.
Pragmatically, it’s meaningless. Even if tried they’re going to have to be detained somewhere and experience suggests that trials will take years.
Implemented effectively? You jest. I think it’s even money whether his first try gets implemented in any meaningful way at all.
GITMO was on the news this a.m. This could be Obama’s “gays in the military.” An issue that I’m sure Obama feels strongly about, as does his base, but as a matter of pragmatatic proposals, he risks dividing his party.
What are you going to do about the 250 detainees cleared for release, but with no country to go to?