In my earlier post this week I outlined what I thought were the most likely outcomes of the Supreme Court’s verdict on the constitutionality of the PPACA AKA “ObamaCare”. Obviously, I have no idea what that verdict will be. If I had to make a WAG, I think the Court will vote 5-4 to invalidate Title 1 of the law, the portion dealing with private insurance.
I think the decision will be complex with multiple differing concurrences and dissents.
To my mind the second most likely outcome is for the law to be upheld completely 6-3.
I think the whole thing will be upheld, but that may simply be because (a) I’m appalled by the Anti-Injunction Act argument (not that its necessarily wrong); and (b) I think health insurance is a matter of interstate commerce.
My confidence level in predicting the SCOTUS outcome dropped considerably at oral argument when Kennedy articulated the federalism issue as one of individual rights, not the traditional federal versus state framework. I would not be surprised if there were five votes to strike down something.
That’s pretty much where I come down, PD. I would say “I would be surprised if there weren’t five votes to strike down something”.
Further, I think that striking down the individual mandate, the most vulnerable candidate, without striking down Title 1 in its entirety is stupid.
Looks like 5-4 that the whole thing stands; some limitations on the feds ability to coerce the states on Medicaid.
Looks like you were right about Kennedy, though, since he thought the whole law should be invalidated.