I’m a bit rushed this morning but I did want to make an observation about all of the polls we’re seeing these days.
We’re seeing an enormous number of polls in anticipation of the elections that are just two weeks away. Mostly I find the polls hard to make heads or tails of without knowing who, specifically, is being polled and what specific questions are being asked.
I read that Democrats are confident; that Republicans are confident; that Republicans are panicked; that people are unhappy; that they’re satisfied with their own representatives.
I have little idea of how to interpret all of this anymore.
It’s possible that Democrats will win an enormous victory this time around at the polls. That’s certainly what you’d conclude from a lot of the polls that are being trumpeted.
I think it’s actually far more likely that we’ll be surprised at just how little change there is. My own belief is that Democrats will make headway in both houses of Congress and may, indeed, take control of the House but that it’s even money that, while gaining strength, they’ll take control of neither house.
Finally, I believe that the findings that most people are unhappy with things as they’re going now but are satisfied with their own representatives are reconcilable:Â little will change, people will be even less satisfied than before, and that Democratic activists will be extremely unhappy.
