This is just a reminder as Chicago closes in on the most homicides in a single year adjusted for population in its history. There is no obvious relationship between the number of police officers per 100K population and the rate of violent crime in cities. Or property crime for that matter. Chicago has the highest ratio of police to citizens of any city in the U. S. St. Louis on the other hand has fewer police officers relative to population but is the homicide capitol of the U. S. You will search in vain for any relationship at all. There is also no relationship between compensation rates for police officers and crime of any sort.
This post was inspired by an article I read that implied that the “flash mob” robberies taking place in a number of cities including Chicago were related to lower levels of policing. The issue has been studied for years and the conclusion reached has been there’s no obvious relationship.
“There is no obvious relationship between the number of police officers per 100K population and the rate of violent crime in cities.”
That’s rather counter-intuitive, and makes one wonder if the issue is properly framed. Criminals carry weapons and run from the police. The police are apparently not cardboard cut outs.
Do we believe they are incompetent, or wholly ineffectual? Police per 100K population does not address whether the ploice are in Austin, the near west side or The Gold Coast.
Is it crime, or truly violent crime, where addiction, gang and very dysfunctional people dominate the motivations. What role does the no snitch rule play?
It is truly hard to imagine that open season on retailers – flash mobs – located in relatively well off areas isn’t a manifestation of lax policing and DA’s.
But the people in large cities are free to self immolate if they choose.
Every so often I’ve mentioned a study that was done in, I believe, Omaha a number of years ago. They identified three very similar districts, doubled the number of officers in one, cut the number in another in half, and left the number of police officers in the third the same.
There was no change in the amount of crime in any of the districts.
My conclusion from that is not that the number of police officers doesn’t matter but that what the police do and how they do their jobs are more important than raw numbers.
I think that sounds much more like the right answer. I don’t think its too quaint a notion to harken back to the days when police had a foot beat and knew exactly what was going on.