Perspectives on Medicaid

The editors of Bloomberg leap to the defense of Medicaid:

Whatever the problems with other parts of Obamacare (chiefly, rising premiums in the state insurance exchanges), Medicaid expansion has worked. Rolling it back now would hurt state budgets, the health-care industry and, most of all, the newly insured.

To place the issue in a little perspective here are the ten states with the largest Medicaid enrollments, what percentage of the state’s population that represents (based on Census Bureau figures), and I’ve color-coded the states not participating in the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of Medicaid:

State Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment Percentage of total state population
California 11,843,081 31%
New York 6,412,390 33%
Texas 4,730,940 18%
Florida 3,644,673 19%
Illinois 3,114,000 24%
Ohio 3,003,170 26%
Pennsylvania 2,854,944 22%
Michigan 2,273,867 23%
North Carolina 2,004,486 20%
Washington 1,781,499 26%

To refresh your memory, Medicaid is a shared federal-state program with federal payment rates depending on the state’s per capita income, i.e. wealthier states pay more.

BTW, that calculation of which states are “givers” and which “takers”, i.e. the ROI of the states based on federal taxes paid in the state vs. federal monies received? Most calculations that I’ve seen don’t include SSRI, DI, Medicaid, or Medicare. If you find a source that calculates state “dependency” that includes SSRI, DI, Medicaid, and Medicare, and other federal spending, tell me about it and I’ll crank that into my table.

11 comments… add one
  • Andy Link
  • Thanks, Andy. I’d looked at a half dozen different reckonings and all had been inadequate. Sadly, the Pew study only tells part of the story, too.

  • Andy Link

    It looks mostly complete for the fed-to-state part of the equation and the excel spreadsheet at the end contains a table in per-capita numbers – I would think the state-to-fed side should be readily available – I’m surprised no one seems to have put it all together and made a real comparison. I might try to do that this week since we aren’t hosting anyone for Thanksgiving.

  • Andy Link

    I did a quick WAG and here’s what I came up with. It’s not perfect, federal tax data is from FY2012 and federal spending data is from 2013. This number of each state is the per capita federal taxes minus the per capita federal spending. So a negative number means the state gets more federal spending than it contributes:

    -$41,108 District of Columbia
    -$9,441 New Mexico
    -$9,075 Hawaii
    -$8,855 Virginia
    -$7,994 West Virginia
    -$7,965 Mississippi
    -$7,678 Alaska
    -$7,509 Maryland
    -$7,418 Maine
    -$7,412 Alabama
    -$6,289 South Carolina
    -$5,635 Montana
    -$5,405 Vermont
    -$5,200 Kentucky
    -$4,839 Arizona
    -$4,613 Idaho
    -$3,510 Michigan
    -$3,432 Florida
    -$3,336 South Dakota
    -$3,332 Nevada
    -$3,219 North Carolina
    -$2,858 Washington
    -$2,790 Missouri
    -$2,729 Oklahoma
    -$2,711 New Hampshire
    -$2,649 Tennessee
    -$2,498 Oregon
    -$2,275 Iowa
    -$2,257 Georgia
    -$2,243 Wyoming
    -$2,099 Louisiana
    -$2,042 United States
    -$2,031 Pennsylvania
    -$1,630 Utah
    -$1,310 North Dakota
    -$1,285 Colorado
    -$1,276 California
    -$1,065 Wisconsin
    -$1,056 Arkansas
    -$787 Kansas
    -$608 Indiana
    -$518 Rhode Island
    -$443 Texas
    $339 New York
    $711 Massachusetts
    $845 Ohio
    $1,476 Illinois
    $1,637 Connecticut
    $2,300 Nebraska
    $3,285 New Jersey
    $6,454 Minnesota
    $14,036 Delaware

    Sources:
    Pew’s 2013 data tables: http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2014/12/States-Downloadable-Tables.xlsx?la=en

    Wikipedia entry on federal taxes, derived from IRS data for FY2012:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_tax_revenue_by_state

  • Andy Link

    I did an estimate, comment and links in moderation

  • In Pew’s data there’s some ambiguity and what appear to be some omissions. The ambiguity has to do with “veteran’s benefits”. Does that include military pensions or just the VA? Pew doesn’t seem to clear that up.

    The omissions include spending by the Bureau of Indian Affairs (including the Native American healthcare system) and spending not otherwise accounted for that can only be allocated on a pro rata basis. Contracts let overseas, for example. Overseas leases. Interest on the debt (a major budget item).

  • Andy Link

    There are definitely gaps and ambiguities, however, I can answer one of your questions – Military pensions are considered “retired pay” and come out of the DoD’s personnel budget along with retired benefits (like tricare).

  • Bob Sykes Link

    Prior to Obamacare, about 15 million working poor needed some sort of health insurance. The 45 million often cited included 30 million healthy young people who only needed catastrophic insurance and rich people who were self-insured. Those actually needing insurance could have been covered by adjusting the eligibility rules for Medicaid. But ideology prevailed. And most working poor still need an affordable insurance program.

  • Affordability is in the eye of the beholder. My position has been that the healthcare reform that we need is to reduce costs. Costs in the United States are significantly higher than in anywhere else in the developed world so it seems to me that there must be some room for cost reduction somewhere.

    The cost of healthcare insurance is proportional to the cost of healthcare.

  • Gray Shambler Link

    Yeah, and if autos cost too much, walk away from the deal. Healthcare, not so easy.

  • walt moffett Link

    Would agree with Sykes with the add ons of federalizing medicaid as we did the various state level cash payments for the blind, disabled and aged and using the same fee schedule as medicare.

    Would this reduce costs, of course not. The very politically skilled, generous coalition of rent seekers we call the health care industry will see to that. Unless that power is broken, we’re bailing the boat with a leaky beer can.

    To the other project, good luck, the Census Bureau had some interesting numbers a while back.

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