Risks and Issues

A risk is something that may hurt you in the future. You mitigate risks, taking action either to avoid them or limit the harm that they can do. You might also decide to accept the risk.

An issue is something that is presently happening and, presumably, hurting you. You can’t mitigate an issue; you must manage it.

Today, this moment, harmful actions by Donald Trump are risks not issues. Trump himself presents a risk. How can the risk that he presents be mitigated?

I think that the most straightforward way to mitigate that risk is by the Congress reasserting its constitutional powers in no uncertain terms. Republicans in Congress should not continue with business as usual and, importantly, should not meekly follow Trump. Democrats in Congress should pick their battles carefully. A purely obstructionist stance will tend to drive Republicans who might otherwise not be so predisposed in Trump’s direction. I don’t mean they should just knuckle under. I mean they should make common cause with the Republican Congressional leadership when they can and engage in honorable and civil disagreement with them when they can’t.

Draping yourself in the flag, drawing yourself to your full height, and declaiming that you will oppose Trump and all who are even tangentially connected to him to the death may feel good but it won’t mitigate the risks.

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How It Starts

There’s an interesting article at Foreign Policy by Paul D. Miller on how a major war could start in the Baltics:

Perhaps Russian-speaking Latvians or Estonians (a quarter of Latvians and Estonians are ethnically Russian) will begin rioting, protesting for their rights, claiming to be persecuted, asking for “international protection.” A suspiciously well armed and well trained “Popular Front for the Liberation of the Russian Baltics” will appear. A few high-profile assassinations and bombings bring the Baltics to the edge of civil war. A low-grade insurgency may emerge.

Russia will block all United Nations Security Council resolutions, but will offer its unilateral services as a peacekeeper. The North Atlantic Council will meet. Poland will lead the effort to invoke Article V, declare the Baltics under Russian attack, and rally collective defense against Russian aggression. The Germans and French will fiercely resist. Everyone will look to the United States to see which way the alliance leader tilts.

If the Alliance does not invoke Article V, NATO’s mutual security guarantee becomes functionally meaningless. No alliance member will put any faith in the treaty to guarantee it’s own defense against Russia in the future. The geopolitical clock will rewind to 1939.

which I think is about right. It also explains why admitting the Baltic countries to NATO was so feckless. One of George W. Bush’s many foreign policy miscalculations. It simultaneously encouraged more aggressive actions on the part of those countries—which they’ve taken by making life harder on their own Russian-speaking citizens—and made it all the more imperative for Russia to respond to provocations, real or imagined.

The question that should been asked is which course of action is more likely to keep the Baltic countries secure? Posing a risk to Russia or being uninteresting to Russia?

I agree with Dr. Miller that Putin is not a purely rational calculator. No person is but neither does he operate in a purely irrational fashion. I believe he’s a politician who responds to political incentives. He’s very popular in Russia because he’s a keen observer of Russian opinion and does things that will maintain that popularity. I think the Russian people are wary of war but will respond to provocations.

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This Is Us

My wife started watching the new NBC series This Is Us, streaming, a couple of weeks ago. Although it’s a bit soapier than is usually within my comfort zone, I started watching it about a week ago. I recommend it.

I can’t tell you much about it without giving too much away. It’s peculiar in that respect.

I don’t think I’m giving too much away in telling you that I think it employs the most effective use of non-linear story-telling that has ever appeared on television. One of the implications of that is that you’ve got to pay attention. You can’t walk away and rejoin five minutes later. You will have missed something important.

I cannot binge-watch it. That would be too much for me.

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Does Size Matter?

This morning the various talking heads programs are perseverating on the size of the crowds protesting Trump’s inauguration, in attendance at Trump’s inauguration, and President Trump’s reaction. PolitiFact’s observations on crowd sizes at recent inaugurations are here.

Here’s my take:

  1. It is completely unsurprising that the number of people in attendance at Trump’s inauguration would be smaller than the number in attendance at President Obama’s inaugurations, particularly his inauguration in 2009. That was historic and people wanted to be a part of that history.
  2. Trump is small. We knew that.
  3. Lots of people vehemently oppose Trump. We knew that, too.

I will defend to the death the right of Americans to assemble and demonstrate peacefully. I think that rioters should be prosecuted and, if found guilty, be subjected to the full penalties of the law.

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Divergent Options

I have added a new blog, Divergent Options, to my blogroll. DO is a group blog with very diverse contributors, focuses on foreign policy and international relations, and has a unique terse format for posts.

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Where the Democrats Stand Now

I recommend that you read Claire Malone’s analysis at Five Thirty Eight, “Barack Obama Won The White House, But Democrats Lost The Country”. It is chock-full of interesting quotes. For example, this one from Ohio state senator Nina Turner:

“African-Americans, no matter what, will vote hook or crook for Democrats, and so that particular demographic is owed a lot more by the Democratic Party than what we have gotten,” said former Ohio state senator and Sanders surrogate Nina Turner. “And what I mean by that is no African-American woman has ever been governor in this country. Democrats need to be making sure that happens.”

which echoes points I’ve made here. Or this one from Howard Dean:

Dean, a former party chairman, agreed. “The DNC always becomes a completely Washington-centric organization when we have our own president — basically the place is run by the political director of the White House, not the chair, and it’s all about re-electing the president,” he said. “You probably ought to move the DNC to Dallas or someplace and get it the hell out of Washington.”

or this one, also from Howard Dean:

“We didn’t do any of the grassroots work over the eight years that Barack Obama was president,” Dean said of the party under a leader who had once been a community organizer. Organizing For America (later Organizing for Action), the project intended to rally the president’s supporters primarily around health care and the Affordable Care Act, was, in Dean’s estimation, “a huge mistake.”

Whatever you think of our system, it remains a federalist one. Under the circumstances, assuming that winning the big desk in the White House alone will give you the power to accomplish whatever you want to is an error.

There is no substitute for ordinary, labor-intensive grassroots organizing. Not winning the presidency, not the bully pulpit, not demographics, not a veto-proof majority in the Senate, not clever number-crunching.

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Slate Star Codex

I have added Scott Alexander’s Slate Star Codex to my selective blogroll. I have followed Dr. Alexander’s blog since it first came to my attention with his great post, “You Are Still Crying Wolf”, which went viral. I have found his work interesting and thought-provoking and recommend it to you.

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Facts, Opinions, and Credulity

In an excellent essay at Duck of Minerva scholar Sidra Hamidi makes some points that I fear are too frequently neglected:

How does a more thoughtful understanding of the relationship between truth and politics help us think about reports of Russian interference? The controversy is exemplary of the kinds of problems we can get into if we assume that facts speak for themselves. Pundits are often surprised that Trump supporters seem not to care about self-evident facts. The conflict is often portrayed as the CIA presenting facts that Trump, through his usual political cunning, refuses to see as a threat. But liberal embrace of these intelligence reports is no less political than Trump’s rejection of them. While Trump’s knowledge on international politics is likely elementary, this narrative rests on what should register as uncomfortable assumptions. There is the assumption that liberals should trust the CIA wholeheartedly in their assessment of the situation. The recent George W. Bush era in foreign policy, during which intelligence was manipulated to invade Iraq, should make liberals err towards being skeptical towards the “facts” that are presented as “intelligence.” Just because today it is politically-expedient to use the authority of the intelligence community to combat Trump, does not mean that liberals should forget the recent past. And by the past I do not simply mean Bush era foreign policy, but also the historical record of the Cold War and beyond in which the intelligence agencies of great powers interfered with elections around the world, the very act that the CIA accuses Russia of doing to the United States. In this instance, the focus on “facts” falls into a political narrative that actually undermines the left’s historically-critical approach to great power politics.

There is also the assumption that threats from Russia are in fact, objective threats. Certainly, Russia’s potential involvement in the election signals an important shift in U.S.-Russia relations. However, threats to the U.S. are always constructed by foreign policy elites in both the U.S. and Russia: the U.S. is not simply reacting to an aggressive Russia but also plays a part in perceiving Russian actions as threatening. Indeed, liberals should we wary of constructing the threat that Russia poses. This strategy is likely to play into the hand of Trump who recently advocated for a renewed arms race. The “fact” of a Russian threat to the U.S. can be molded to fit many a political perspective. Trump can misuse the threat of Russia to serve hawkish goals.

Despite the essay’s contribution to the strategic quotation mark shortage, I found Mr. Hamidi’s observations thought-provoking. How you distinguish among facts and opinions is of grave importance and not always obvious.

Russian aggression in Ukraine is, as well as I can tell, a fact. Interpretations of what Russian aggression Ukraine means are all opinions. There are other facts, for example, that the present regime in Kiev came into power by forcibly removing the previous regime and that the present regime is anti-Russian are facts, too.

Based on what we know that the Democratic National Committee’s email archive was breached and some of the emails given to WikiLeaks is a fact. The veracity and authoricity of the emails that have been made public also appear to be facts. Just about everything else about the matter is opinion or taken on faith.

Criticism of the Russian government is legitimate; I advocate it. Believing that Russia pursues its own interests nearly goes without saying. I think it’s obvious. Believing that the Russian people are our implacable geo-political foes is a matter of opinion; I don’t think they care that much about us.

But criticism of the CIA is legitimate, too.

In conclusion I want to point out that I have, somewhat tardily, added the excellent foreign policy and international relations blog, the Duck of Minerva to my highly selective blogroll. It’s long overdue and I recommend you visit DoM frequently.

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Can the United States Hold El Chapo?

By now you’ve probably heard the news that drug kingpin Joaquín Archivaldo Guzmán Loera, nicknamed “El Chapo” (“Shorty”), has been extradited from Mexico to the United States. The Guardian reports:

Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, the cartel kingpin who made two daring escapes from high-security prisons and lived on the run for years, has been extradited to the United States where he faces prosecution on narcotics and other charges.

The Mexican foreign ministry announced the extradition in a short statement on Thursday afternoon, saying Guzmán had exhausted his appeals against his extradition.

There have been all sorts of speculations about the reasons for the extradition, its implications, etc.

I think the Mexican authorities are just acknowledging that they are unable to keep him behind bars, want him to stay there, and are making him the U. S.’s problem. My question is will we be able to hold him?

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Questions for Marcelo Cantelmi

In his article at Clarin Marcelo Cantelmi asserts that China is “betting on the free market”:

We have come a long way since the capitalist pilot scheme launched in Shenzhen in the 1970s by party leaders Deng Xiao Ping and Xi Zhongxun, father of the current President Xi Jinping. Shenzhen and its special economic zones provided the first free market model in China that has now come to encase the Communist polity in a liberalized economic, rather than political, environment.

The former Middle Empire is today a capitalist monarchy where decisions are taken at the top and whose changing leaders broadly follow the same, pragmatic policies. Thus we should not be surprised by the liberal tone of President Xi’s speech this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos. This was the first time a Chinese head of state was not just attending, but inaugurating this illustrious capitalist shindig.

I have some questions for Mr. Cantelmi.

  1. Please define “free market”.
  2. 90% of the company’s in China’s industrial sector are state-owned and all twelve of its largest companies are. How does that fit into China’s embrace of the “free market”?

My view of President Xi’s address at Davos was, as I’ve said before, far from being an embrace of the free market, his pitch for increasing China’s role in the International Monetary Fund, hardly a bastion of the free market.

If President Xi is betting on the free market, I think he’s betting on the rubes who espouse free markets getting to accept what China has as a free market.

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