The Vice Presidential Debate

I watched last night’s vice presidential debate and I’m glad I did. It demonstrated that it is still possible for two competing candidates from two different political parties to conduct a civil, articulate, and coherent discourse, something that has been in some doubt lately. Short take: I would rather have either of the two candidates I saw last night as president than either of the two at the tops of their respective tickets. Otherwise, I thought the debate was interesting but unlikely to have much impact on the outcome of the election.

I did not think that CBS’s moderators covered themselves in glory, signaling their biases pretty clearly. I’m sure their co-partisans were delighted. Hint to media outlets: “fact checking” candidates on things they are providing correct answers to debases fact checking.

The Politico Staff thought that Vance won:

JD Vance not only was polished, but offered a more cutting critique of Kamala Harris than his running mate, Donald Trump, managed in his own debate with her last month.

Tim Walz, on the other hand, took a while to warm up — and wasn’t that great even when he did.

The debate, light on body blows and heavy on policy, was won by Vance on style points.

The editors’ of the Wall Street Journal’s take resembled mine:

The political cliche is that vice-presidential debates don’t matter to the ultimate election result. But even if that turns out to be true about Tuesday’s debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance, Americans were at least able to watch a substantive debate that came closer to revealing the election choice than anything their running mates have offered.

Mr. Vance in particular helped the ticket and himself. The sarcastic candidate of “childless cat ladies” fame was nowhere in sight. The Ohio Senator was respectful, well prepared, articulate, and relentless in reminding voters about the flaws of what he called “the Kamala Harris Administration.” This is a case Donald Trump was unable to make in his debate, or for that matter anywhere in the weeks since President Biden left the race.

Mr. Walz was likable and avuncular, though he sometimes seemed frenetic and overstuffed with too many facts and prepared attack lines. On presence and command, Mr. Vance won the debate going away.

I found Marsha McHardy’s report at Newsweek interesting and informative:

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz saw a significant bump in polling after Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate in New York, surpassing Ohio Senator JD Vance in postdebate momentum.

The showdown saw the two candidates largely focus on differences, with Vance repeatedly hitting Vice President Kamala Harris on border security, while Walz lambasted former President Donald Trump on abortion rights. Newsweek has contacted the Vance and Walz campaigns for comment via email.

A flash poll conducted by CNN and SSRS after the debate among 574 registered voters who watched the showdown found that 51 percent of respondents said that Vance came out on top, compared to 49 percent who said the same of Walz. The margin of error was +/- 5.3 points.

A CBS News flash poll performed in conjunction with YouGov also showed Vance winning by a slim margin, with 42 percent of 1,630 respondents saying they thought the Ohio senator won the debate, to Walz’s 41 percent. The margin of error was +/- 2.7 points. Seventeen percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.

In a Politico snap poll of the debate, while voters were split 50-50 on who won, Walz was seen to have won with independents by 58-42. He was also preferred as vice president by 44 percent of independents, with 36 percent choosing Vance.

However, despite Vance’s win, the CNN/SSRS poll also shows that Walz saw a bigger rise in his favorability ratings after the debate than Vance.

According to the poll, the Minnesota governor saw a 23-point boost in his favorability ratings, going up from +14 to +37. Meanwhile, Vance saw a 19-point boost in his favorability ratings, going up from -22 to -3.

So, did last night’s debate make any difference? Or could the election be held today and the results would be little different than waiting until November?

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Mule Train!


With many roads impassable due to the damage caused by the hurricane, mules are being used to deliver supplies in western North Carolina. Sareen Habeshian reports at Axios:

Mules are helping deliver aid to residents in North Carolina as they grapple with the fallout from the destructive Hurricane Helene.

The big picture: Five Southeastern states are responding to widespread devastation caused from the hurricane that made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm last week, with the death toll surpassing 130.

  • Many roads in North Carolina remain impassable due to storm damage. All roads in the Western North Carolina “should be considered closed to all non-emergency travel,” the N.C. Emergency Management Agency said on X Monday.

Zoom in: As government agencies, organizations and businesses haul food, water and other emergency supplies into North Carolina’s mountain towns using semi-trucks, helicopters and military planes, Mountain Mule Packers enlisted its mules to help with the load.

  • The pack mule strings can deliver supplies to areas not accessible by vehicle, including hard-to-reach mountainous areas.
    Mountain Mule Packers delivered its first batch of aid Monday with food, water and diapers to the western part of the state, using two fully-loaded trucks and several stock trailers, according to a post on the ranch’s Facebook page.

A video on the Facebook page illustrates how the sure-footed mules are able to cross debris-strewn roads impassable to cars and trucks (from 2016).

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Tonight’s Debate

I am struggling with myself, trying to determine whether to watch tonight’s Vice Presidential Debate. I don’t believe I’ve ever watched a vice presidential debate before.

Yet another reminder that this is an election like no other in living memory. We have two incumbents running against one another, both running simultaneously on their records and as “outsiders”. That was underscored by Gov. Walz’s recent declamation that “we can’t stand four more years of this”. Historically, vice presidential debates have not been particularly consequential, that despite the ages of the candidates in 2020, but this one might be different.

It should also be entertaining to see whether the debate is actually three against one which is a pretty good guess.

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Good Intentions

Since I have criticized the Harris campaign as being too thin on policy I thought it only right to read the economic policy briefing put out by the campaign. While I agree with many of the aspirations in the document, I found the proposals alternately puzzling and dismaying. I think it helps if you understand some of the phrases used in it.

For example, “tax cut” seems to mean a transfer payment administered through the tax system. It seems to be an article of faith that price increases are caused by “price gouging”, something never actually defined. Scott Sumner and others have pointed out that the available evidence suggests that price increases have been driven by demand rather than supply shocks.

I’m skeptical that subsidizing down payments for first-time homeowners will actually increase the affordability of homes. Indeed, I think it might do the opposite. When you increase the willingness to pay, prices go up. That is axiomatic.

How can we increase how much we manufacture (not how much it costs: how much we manufacture) in the United States? I think the two greatest barriers are excessive regulation and China. For the last 30 years China has targeted one industry after another, dumping goods made without the environmntal, labor, health, safety, etc. regulations we have here and making it uneconomical to compete against them.

92% of new businesses are retail or services providers. Furthermore, (speaking as a former small business owner who filled out his own tax returns) net revenue tends to be quite small for startups, i.e. their taxes aren’t very high. Reducing paperwork might be a much stronger incentive. I don’t know whether subsidizing startups is actually an investment or not.

The editors of the Wall Street Journal are equally skeptical, dubbing Kamalanomics “Bidenomics II”, consisting largely of higher taxes, new and bigger entitlements, transfer payments, subsidies, more student loan forgiveness, more federal control of healthcare, industrial policy, price controls, union gifts, and green energy largesse.

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The Definition of Insanity

There is a wisecrack attributed to many that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. I’m not sure that’s always true.

I can think of three movie directors who made the same movie more than once. In each case at least to my eye the original was better but maybe you have a different view. The three I can think of are:

Raoul Walsh: High Sierra (1940) and Colorado Territory (1949)
Frank Capra: Lady for a Day (1933) and Pocketful of Miracles (1961)
Alfred Hitchcock: The Man Who Knew Too Much (1934) and The Man Who Knew Too Much (1956)

and that doesn’t even count the many variations on the same theme that Alfred Hitchcock directed e.g. The 39 Steps, Saboteur, and North By Northwest. Each features a dashing man on the run eluding his pursuers, encountering a romantic interest largely by chance, and finally triumphing.

Can you think of any other instances of the same director directing literally the same movie although undoubtedly with a different cast and likely a change of scenery?

Update

I’ve got one more than I think counts: Howard Hawks—Rio Bravo (1959) and Eldorado (1966). I recognize that they didn’t start out to be the same movie but Hawks was working with the same writer (Leigh Brackett) and the two of them kept rewriting and adding scenes to Eldorado until it was effectively a remake of Rio Bravo.

Update 2

I’ve got another. Cecil B. DeMille and The Ten Commandments in 1923 and 1956.

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Our Tomato Harvest

Speaking of ends we are reaching the end of our tomato harvest for this year. This year we planted Cherokee Purples, Genuwines, Romas, and Midnight Romas. I’m using the last of our Romas along with some of our last Midnight Romas. The Genuwines were an experiment that worked out well. We’ll probably plant all four of those again next year.

This season has been a real wrestling match with the squirrels who refuse to be deterred. They also refuse to eat the tomatoes. They just take a bite and leave the rest which is a waste.

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Goodbye, As

My wife and I have a friend who is in deep mourning. She has been an Oakland Athletics fan her entire adult life and the As have played their last game in the Oakland Coliseum. They will play for three years in Sacramento (!) before moving into their new home in Las Vegas.

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With Deepest Sympathy

As you may recall I rarely post on local events happening outside Chicago or Illinois. However, the reports of the mayor of New York City having been indicted on charges of corruption in office moved me to post a little sympathy card for the people of New York.

Believe me, Chicagoans understand your pain.

On a related note the White Sox are poised on the brink of unseating the 1962 Mets as the worst major league baseball team in modern history.

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President Biden’s Victory Tour

In his latest Wall Street Journal op-ed Karl Rove is bemused by President Joe Biden’s plans to aid Vice President Harris’s campaign for the presidency:

What does Joe Biden think he’s doing? More important, what do the geniuses running his White House communications shop think they’re doing?

According to Politico, the president will spend the fall on the road doing a tour “that will focus largely on the administration’s accomplishments” in “substantive, higher-payoff events.”

“The schedule will be robust and he plans to leave it all on the field,” White House communications director Ben LaBolt promises. Axios reports that the president plans to “communicate directly” with Americans “on how the Biden-Harris Agenda will pay dividends now and 10, 20 and 30 years into the future.”

This strategy may sound smart to West Wing staffers spit-balling how to occupy Mr. Biden’s time. But the Harris-Walz campaign team has to be less than thrilled about the possibility of a Biden valedictory tour in the months before the election.

Among the reasons behind his puzzlement are that President Biden’s communication skills have not improved since June, President Biden going on the road takes eyeballs aways from Vice President Harris, and, worst of all, he’s tying Vice President Harris to his administration as closely as he can and that is rather apparently seen as a liability by the Harris campaign:

If Mr. Biden goes through with this plan, he’ll be making his economic record even more central to the election. Though Ms. Harris has worked hard to close the gap, she trails Mr. Trump in the NBC poll on who’s better at “dealing with the economy” by 41% to 50% and “dealing with inflation and the cost of living” by 40% to 48%. Mr. Biden’s insistence on being involved could widen that spread a bit.

It isn’t just Mr. Rove who’s wondering if the president isn’t trying to undermine Vice President Harris’s campaign.

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What Makes Amazon Run?

This post by Mark Judge at Chronicle may give you a new perspective on Amazon, the Washington Post, Mark Judge, or all three. Here’s a snippet:

At Amazon, things are very tightly organized. You are given a uniform, training, and very clear guidelines. There is a point system that penalizes you if you are late or absent. You get a point for arriving late or leaving early, even on your 30-minute lunch break. If you hit eight points you’re gone. You are expected to perform with efficiency.

It was reported that Bezos doesn’t mind firing a lot of workers because if they are there too long, the thinking goes, they get complacent. Bezos believes that workers who have been at the company too long get comfortable and their productivity declines. Amazon’s reported goal is to filter out the bottom 6 percent of performers to avoid a “march to mediocrity.”

The number of people who quit or are fired each year at Amazon is higher than the total employment at the company. Seventy percent of those hired leave within 90 days. This is double the turnover rate for similar employers and it costs Amazon an estimated $8 billion every year. When I worked at Amazon, there was a crazy dual emphasis on both working you to death and trying to make sure you didn’t quit.

That sounds remarkably like the workload of a Japanese salaryman and I can’t help but wonder if it is not deliberate. Consider this:

(Extracted from Amazon’s web site.) Mr. Judge has mentioned the high turnover rate at Amazon. I can’t help but wonder if kar?shi (death from overwork) is a phenomenon there. I suspect not.

His main point in the piece is that both Amazon and the post should be reformed by treating Amazon employees the way they treat Post employees and Post employees the way Amazon employees are treated which sounds remarkably vindictive to Post employees to me.

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