The editors of the Washington Post are dissatisfied with the peace plan the Trump Administration has been promoting to end Russia’s war against Ukraine:
The Russian military’s deadly missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilians on Thursday were brazen — even to President Donald Trump, who has been pushing Ukraine to accept a peace deal favorable to Russia. “Vladimir, STOP!” Trump warned President Vladimir Putin in a social media post.
This should help the U.S. president see why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does not want to discuss any peace deal until Russia stops bombarding his country. More important, Trump should reconsider the uneven proposal that he has demanded Zelensky accept. As it stands, the deal would largely reward Putin for his unprovoked war against a smaller neighbor. The battle lines would be frozen in place, meaning Russia would keep control of the nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it seized with its February 2022 invasion — though Ukraine would not formally cede sovereignty. What’s more, the United States would implicitly recognize Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, although Ukraine would not have to do so. Though it’s true that Ukraine should be expected to consider such terms, Russia — the aggressor in this conflict — also needs to make concessions.
They propose their alternative:
In a more perfect world, Trump would then demand that Putin restore Ukraine’s pre-2022 borders by withdrawing Russian troops, end support for the separatist militias operating in Ukraine’s eastern regions, agree to a European military force for monitoring compliance in Ukraine’s border regions, disavow any further territorial claims on Ukraine, agree to pay reparations for the damage to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, and immediately return all prisoners of war and the Ukrainian children who were illegally abducted into Russia.
Trump could promise that, once all these steps were taken and verified, the United States would begin talks on easing some of the sanctions crippling the Russian economy. This sanctions relief would come in phases, and sanctions would return in the event that Russia violated any part of the peace deal. The International Criminal Court might be persuaded to suspend its indictment of Putin if the Ukrainian children were returned. The United States, Ukraine and Russia could begin talks about the future status of Crimea.
which they concede is a non-starter for Russia.
I would ask the editors a series of questions:
- Is Ukraine in a stronger position now than it was last year at this time?
- Was Ukraine in a stronger position in April 2023 than it was in April 2024?
- Was Ukraine in a stronger position in April 2022 than it was in April 2023?
which I would answer “no”, “no”, and “yes”, respectively. April 2022 was the time of the so-called “Istanbul Communiqué”. In that communiqué US, Ukrainian, and Russian negotiators came up with a framework for negotiations to end the war. They were that Ukraine could apply for EU membership, maintain neutrality, limit the size of its military forces, end its attempts to join NATO, forbid foreign military bases, and Western countries (including the US and UK) would act as guarantors of the agreement. Ultimately, the US and UK persuaded Ukraine to reject the deal. Since then things have only gotten worse for Ukraine.
Although I believe the US should continue to offer military aid to Ukraine, I would suggest that at this point it is very unlikely that Ukraine will be in a better bargaining position in April 2026 than it is now. I would also suggest that Russians’ willingness to put up with a poor economy and with military losses should not be underestimated. Russia has had a lousy economy for most of the last 200 years and the Russians are no strangers to casualties in war (6 million military casualties in World War II, 2 million World War I, 70,000 in the Russo-Japanese War, .5 million in the Crimean War, .5 million in Napoleon’s invasion)
What the US should not do is offer troops. Every wargaming of US-Russian direct conflict has resulted in a nuclear exchange and nuclear war would be disastrous not just for Russia and the United States but for Ukraine as well (Ukraine would likely be the first target).
I’m curious as to why no one is proposing that other countries, say, Poland or the UK provide troops in the war? Are they afraid that would provoke the Russians into using nuclear weapons as much as would the direct involvement of the United States?
In the absence of that I sincerely wish that the WaPo’s editors would offer their plans for concluding the war other than the one they acknowledge is a non-starter.