You might be interested in this report at the Center for American Progress, “Taking Migration Seriously: Real Solutions to Complex Challenges at the Border”. Here’s a snippet:

The Biden-Harris administration has proved committed to managing regional migration by tackling its root causes. Shortly after taking office, President Joe Biden issued an executive order directing federal agencies to develop a comprehensive regional framework to address the root causes of migration, manage migration in the region, and strengthen the asylum system at the border. A few months later, in July 2021, the administration followed up on this order with a collaborative migration management strategy that focused on improving regional collaboration. The administration has also released a blueprint to address the root causes of irregular migration, with strategies to tackle insecurity, corruption, and violence in an effort to promote human rights in Central America.

Despite these efforts we presently have an unprecedented number of people crossing our southern border without permission, certainly at least 3 million last year considering both “encounters” and “getaways”. There’s an old observation that the way you know you have enough light in a reading room is if you can read there. By that standard the Biden Administration self-evidently isn’t doing enough.

A good place to start in looking for guidance would be the Immigration and Naturalization Act, the guiding legislation. Very few of those crossing the border are refugees by the standards defined in the law. Making an analogy with Cuba is fatuous because a) the circumstances today are different than they were 60 years ago and b) there was specific legislation addressing their status. If you want people from Venezuela, for example, to be automatically defined as refugees, the appropriate legislation should be enacted.

IMO the preponderance of the evidence suggests that most of those crossing our southern border are in fact economic migrants and, sadly, the evidence is quite clear that there is no great demand for people without a high school-level ability to speak, read, or write English. Increasing that population further injures those already in the bottom tier of the economy.

As I write this I’m watching Fredric March’s performance as Jekyll and Hyde in the 1931 film, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. He won an Academy Award for his performance.

One thing leaps out at me about it. Hyde is not the way Stevenson described him. Stevenson had a single theme that recurs throughout his works: evil is more attractive than good. That’s why Jekyll, a very good man, is drawn to transform himself into Hyde again and again.

Who is the most interesting, attractive character in Treasure Island? It’s not Squire Trelawny or Dr. Livesey, the “good” characters. Obviously, Long John Silver. Similarly with Alan Breck in Kidnapped and James in The Master of Ballantrae. They’re not good people but they’re more interesting and attractive.

Hyde is not described as physically deformed but more subtly as having a sort of moral deformity. Maybe some day there will be a film adaptation which capture that aspect of the novel. Spencer Tracy’s Jekyll/Hyde comes closest. Too bad it’s such a lousy picture.

This is not a news blog. It’s an analysis blog but I thought the attack on Paul Pelosi worth remarking on.

I deplore all violence, particularly political violence, and the preponderance of the evidence suggests that’s ultimately what the attack was. Beyond that IMO all sides are rushing to judgment and we should wait before deciding much about the incident other than to wish Mr. Pelosi a speedy recovery.

Most of what’s being said beyond the bare fact of the attack is speculation. I’ll offer one of my own: cannabis psychosis. I believe it’s an increasingly serious problem and we’ll see more of it. It ain’t your grandpa’s weed anymore.

The perpetrator was clearly a nut, whatever his politics, motive, or circumstances.

You might want to take a look at this assessment of the emissions of electric vehicles at RealClearInvestigations.

My own view is

1. EVs are good niche vehicles but not workable for everyone based on present technology.
2. Hybrids are a better solution for more people and require the production of a lot fewer batteries.
3. We have very little basis for believing that the production of batteries can be scaled up high enough or fast enough for everyone to be driving only EVs.
4. The main effect of California and states that emulate California by banning the sale of new ICE vehicles will be to goose the market for used vehicles which is a perverse outcome.
5. The power distribution grid will not be able to handle everybody driving an EV for the foreseeable future.

Shorter: Elon Musk is a smart guy. Targeting people in the top 10% of income earners for his EV product was a good idea and Tesla appears to be moving back in that direction.

There’s a story here in Chicago which you may not have heard about which I think is instructive. A postal worker was abducted in the Little Village neighborhood of Chicago but managed to escape before her abductor sexually assaulted her. Both the postal worker and the abductor had been in a convenience store just minutes before. The abductor left the store before the postal worker, entered the postal worker’s van (why was it left unlocked?), and then attacked the postal worker after she returned to her vehicle. Here’s how Matt Masterson reports what happened at WTTW:

Ramirez lunged at her, grabbing her sweatshirt, shirt and bra as she tried to escape, according to prosecutors.

The woman slipped out of that clothing and ran to a nearby auto body shop, where she was given a shirt and called 911. Responding officers allegedly located Ramirez driving the postal van near 20th and Pulaski, but after a 20-minute traffic pursuit, he was able to get away. That vehicle was later found abandoned in the 4300 block of West Marquette Road.

According to prosecutors, the postal worker was hospitalized and treated for high blood pressure and some abrasions around her neck.

The abductor has been apprehended. How?

Later that day, police released a still photo of Ramirez from inside the gas station asking for the community’s help in locating him.

On Sunday, two of Ramirez’s own family members “immediately recognized” him from that photo and contacted police, prosecutors said. A third relative also recognized Ramirez after seeing the same photo later that day, and later told police Ramirez had been wearing a vest this relative had given him a day prior, prosecutors said.

Ramirez was later located and arrested Monday.

Why is that instructive? Because the key element that led to Mr. Ramirez’s apprehension was that those who knew him informed police that he was the individual in the photograph they were circulating. Without that he might never have been apprehended.

My point here is that what makes crime a viable occupation is the complicity of the community in it. Although the cherubic pictures frequently published of individuals who have, for example, been killed by police may represent how his friends and family think of him, they may be a far cry from the present reality which in many cases is that the individual is a hardened professional criminal with dozens or even hundreds of prior offenses. It takes a certain amount of courage and, yes, resoluteness to turn in friends or family which is why it happens so rarely.

It also requires trust in law enforcement which is, sadly, too frequently a missing ingredient.

The table above was sampled from Joanne Jacobs’s post about the recent NAEP English and math test results for this year. Quoting another article she implores:

Tell parents the unpleasant truth about learning loss, writes Andrew Rotherham in a story on the state NAEP scores in the The 74. “The disaster and inequity of pandemic policies is now in clear focus,” he writes. Despite a few outliers — Department of Defense and Catholic schools — “it’s an across-the-board disaster for the United States.”

“Students already furthest from success in school were most impacted,” he writes. “Thirty-eight percent of eighth-graders are at a level in mathematics that leaves them functionally unprepared to fend for themselves in the world, let alone pursue success in various college and career opportunities.”

You may recall that at the time I pointed out two things. First, that the public schools serve two constituencies: students and their parents on the one hand and teachers and school staffs on the other. Second, that the needs of both constituencies could be satisfied by distinguishing between teachers who were at greater risk for contracting COVID-19 from those who weren’t. That flies in the face of long-standing union rules but needs must when the devil drives.

Well, it looks like the needs of one constituency completely overwhelmed that of the other and, as should not be surprising, the triumphant constituency was teachers and staffs. I am strongly reminded of Jerry Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy:

in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representatives who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions

It is not necessarily true that lost years of learning can be remediated. It has been well known for a century that there are center crucial periods in child development in which if certain skills are not learned they never will be.

We’re not just in competition with each other anymore. We’re in competition with everyone in the world. The students who’ve wasted a year will feel the gap keenly in their later lives.

From Merriam-Webster:

One of the hazards of complaining about the qualities of the opposing party’s candidates is that it increases the stakes for having qualified candidates yourself.

Paraphrasing one of my favorite political figures from the last century, we’re defining competency down.

Revisions to the projections for the midterm elections are coming in, both from Cook’s Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. At the Crystal Ball Kyle Kondik updates their projections to predict a coming House Republican majority:

Way back in January, and even as redistricting was still being completed, we suggested that the biggest question about the race for the House was not whether Republicans would win the majority, but rather how big the eventual Republican majority would be. Though there have been twists and turns along the way, that still appears to be the key question with a couple of weeks to go until the election.

While we have always described the Republicans as favorites to win the House majority this cycle, today’s rating changes represent the first time we’ve had at least 218 districts rated as Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican — the minimum number required to win a majority.

Overall, the House playing field remains large and is mostly made up of districts that Joe Biden carried and that Democrats hold. Several weeks ago, we wrote about the districts that have seen at least some outside spending by party groups. There were 57 back then, and the number is up to 61 now. Our sense is that many Democratic incumbents are holding their own but are south of 50%, making them vulnerable to the whims of a GOP-leaning overall national political environment (we’ll address some of these members in one of the bullet points about polling below).

and here’s his conclusion:

After today’s rating changes, we now show 218 districts rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican and 195 at least Leans Democratic, with 22 Toss-ups remaining.

Per Crystal Ball tradition, we will push all the Toss-ups to a Leans rating before the election — and we reserve the right to move some of the leaners from one lean column straight to the other, bypassing the Toss-up column (do not pass Go and do not collect $200, to quote Monopoly).

Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle, 11-11, would give the GOP a 229-206 House edge, or a net gain of 16. However, at this point we’d probably pick the Republicans in two-thirds of the Toss-ups, and they may very well end up flipping some of our current Leans Democratic seats as well. Overall, we’re thinking the likeliest House outcome is a GOP gain of somewhere in the high teens or low 20s.

Let’s underscore that. Barring some dramatic new development and, indeed, regardless of dramatic new developments since so many votes have already been cast at this point, Republicans are extremely likely to hold a majority in the House of Representatives in 2023 with as few as 218 seats and as many as 240.

I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry about the many complaints about misinformation and disinformation in politics. Has there been more of it in period leading up to the 2022 midterms or are they about the same as usual? Misinformation and disinformation are intrinsic to American politics—they go all the way back to the acrimonious campaign between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson in 1800, the very first real presidential election. There are still some claims made in that election that people believe.

Ending misinformation and disinformation would mean the end of American politics as it’s been for 200 years. Ending the disinformation and misinformation of the “other guys” while leaving that of “your guys” alone would be even worse.