Revisions to the projections for the midterm elections are coming in, both from Cook’s Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. At the Crystal Ball Kyle Kondik updates their projections to predict a coming House Republican majority:
Way back in January, and even as redistricting was still being completed, we suggested that the biggest question about the race for the House was not whether Republicans would win the majority, but rather how big the eventual Republican majority would be. Though there have been twists and turns along the way, that still appears to be the key question with a couple of weeks to go until the election.
While we have always described the Republicans as favorites to win the House majority this cycle, today’s rating changes represent the first time we’ve had at least 218 districts rated as Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican — the minimum number required to win a majority.
Overall, the House playing field remains large and is mostly made up of districts that Joe Biden carried and that Democrats hold. Several weeks ago, we wrote about the districts that have seen at least some outside spending by party groups. There were 57 back then, and the number is up to 61 now. Our sense is that many Democratic incumbents are holding their own but are south of 50%, making them vulnerable to the whims of a GOP-leaning overall national political environment (we’ll address some of these members in one of the bullet points about polling below).
and here’s his conclusion:
After today’s rating changes, we now show 218 districts rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican and 195 at least Leans Democratic, with 22 Toss-ups remaining.
Per Crystal Ball tradition, we will push all the Toss-ups to a Leans rating before the election — and we reserve the right to move some of the leaners from one lean column straight to the other, bypassing the Toss-up column (do not pass Go and do not collect $200, to quote Monopoly).
Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle, 11-11, would give the GOP a 229-206 House edge, or a net gain of 16. However, at this point we’d probably pick the Republicans in two-thirds of the Toss-ups, and they may very well end up flipping some of our current Leans Democratic seats as well. Overall, we’re thinking the likeliest House outcome is a GOP gain of somewhere in the high teens or low 20s.
Let’s underscore that. Barring some dramatic new development and, indeed, regardless of dramatic new developments since so many votes have already been cast at this point, Republicans are extremely likely to hold a majority in the House of Representatives in 2023 with as few as 218 seats and as many as 240.
On the House side, it is a high variance distribution in terms of possible outcomes; through I suspect the mode of the distribution is more favorable to Republicans then Mr Klondik’s commentary. One reason behind my thinking is how the parties are acting (i.e. where they are focusing money and volunteers).
A more intriguing question is the Senate. A quite likely outcome on Nov 8th is 50-49-1; with the control of the Senate dependent on a runoff in Georgia on Dec 6th.
Ready for a replay of 2020 with both parties in the lame duck session trying to bribe voters for control of the Senate?
Waiving gas tax? Inflation “relief” checks?
That’s certainly what the numbers point too and match historical trends, but I don’t entirely trust the numbers or the historical trend.
For one thing, response bias isn’t the only problem with polling:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-some-competitive-races-have-little-to-no-polling-thats-a-problem/
I have never followed a midterm election like this one before. Maybe it’s because I think the country has incredibly degraded before our very eyes under the Biden Administration. Like a game of limbo, how much lower can we go should the Dems be victorious in November? Consequently, I’m hoping people will hold democrats accountable and massively vote them out, in hopes they will undergo some soul-searching reformation while they are out of power. Thirteen days out of game day, it appears this wish has chances of happening.
RCP has the House pick-ups being in the range of 12-47. The Senate they gauge as republicans +3 and governors +3 as well. Mark Penn, a democrat pollster, seems to agree that currently the Dems are not mirroring the concerns of most people. Polls indicate most blame Biden for our economic problems. They cite the American Rescue Plan as having too much spending, the Inflation Reduction Act as actually raising inflation, and favor smaller government and reduced government spending – the exact opposite of what social progressives support.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/inflation-electorate-hold-biden-democrats-accountable-midterms
After streaming debates last night from NY and Mi I think Hochul and Whitmer are vulnerable, as are Evers in Wi and Waltz in Minnesota. Common people are simply more organized and motivated to push back on those who have ruled with a more tyrannical hand, especially during the over-extended lockdowns cratering businesses, families, and schools. With the recent release of a national report card on the academic deficits suffered by our kids – especially demonstrated in math scores – this will only anger parents more. Then you have the CDC coming out and recommending COVID 19 vaccines be put on the school schedule, giving big pharma immunity from harms their vaccines have caused people. Last night both republican candidates in MI and NY promised not to mandate vaccines for entrance into public schools. This alone will extract more votes towards governors on the same page.
Andy:
And, as Mr. Kondik observes, much of the polling is politically biased.
Curious Onlooker:
A principle I follow: ignore the weather reports; watch which way the canoes are paddling. It strongly suggests that some elections presently listed as “Leans Democratic” will actually go to the Republicans.
https://verityvote.us/pennsylvania-voter-not-verified-vulnerability/
This is why Europe and Canada do not participate in voting- by-mail practices, because of the enormous opportunities available to successfully commit fraud, without traces of fraud. It’s also why Democrats push universal mail-in-voting and ballot harvesting vs Republicans who want paper ballots and are against ballot harvesting.
Jan: This is why Europe and Canada do not participate in voting- by-mail practices
Britain and Germany both have vote by mail. Canada, too.
https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=vote&document=index&lang=e
Zach, did you even read the Canadian link posted by you?
In Canada you have to be a citizen, registered to vote before the election, show proof of ID and address. To vote by mail is considered a special ballot, which has to be applied for and then approved. There is attention to security in Canada which we lack here. Also, Canada uses paper ballots and shuns machines which have been proven to be easily manipulated.
What the Dems support here in the U.S. is universal mail-in voting, sending ballots to everyone per registration roles that Dems refuse to update, same day registration and voting, no ID, ballot harvesting, lowered signature verification standards, and here in CA you can even print your own ballot on your computer.
Jan: To vote by mail is considered a special ballot, which has to be applied for and then approved.
But that wasn’t your claim. Canada allows any valid elector to vote by mail.
It’s just like in most U.S. states; an elector requests a mail-in ballot, and if they are properly registered, they are sent the ballot with return envelopes. Some states in the U.S. will send mail-in ballots to all registered voters, meaning they have already gone through the process of confirming they are valid electors.
“This is why Europe and Canada do not participate in voting- by-mail practices, because of the enormous opportunities available to successfully commit fraud, without traces of fraud. It’s also why Democrats push universal mail-in-voting and ballot harvesting vs Republicans who want paper ballots and are against ballot harvesting.”
The effectiveness of any system depends on the details of implementation. The idea that all-mail voting is inherently prone to fraud is disproven by the existence of successful systems in several states, including my own state of Colorado. It’s certainly possible to make a bad fraud-prone voting system, but it’s also possible to make one that is at least as resilient as a mandatory in-person voting system. And while it’s not perfect, I think Colorado and other states have done exactly that and proven it over many election cycles.
Canada requires that workers be given time off to go vote. Since the elections are all run by one national entity instead of at the state level, the distribution of voting machines and poll workers is more equal. In Canada normal waiting times are about 20 minutes or less though they did hit 90 minutes during covid. Compare that with waits up to 11 hours in places like Georgia, just coincidentally where Democrats are most common. The end result is that a lot more Canadians vote than Americans. Conservatives wouldn’t like that. Also, there is early voting everywhere and the rules are consistent for every voter in every province.
Voter ID is new in Canada starting 2007, but they allow about 40 different kinds of ID and it doesnt have to have a photo. It includes things like expired drivers licenses and student IDs.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58589809
Steve
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/three-things-us-could-learn-canadas-election
The effectiveness of any system depends on the details of implementation. The idea that all-mail voting is inherently prone to fraud is disproven by the existence of successful systems in several states, including my own state of Colorado.
I thoroughly agree that implementation of anything is the key to the success or failure of anything . If said implementation has built in checks and balances to discover and eliminate potential untoward actions, by either a machine or humans, then there is less to worry about. However, in the case of Dominion machines, around 9 areas of fallibility have been noted where the vote could be manipulated, including direct connection to the internet. Applying universal voting practices, where integrity is maintained, depends on the accuracy of the registration roles. I don’t know how well CO adheres to updating and scrutinizing theirs, however here in CA there is a politicized push back objecting to cleaning up any such voter ossification, leaving only living, verified residents in place. Correctly filing out the ballot and signature verification are other details that were lacking a few years ago, and are being tightened up in the current election cycle.
In the 2020 election unverified ballots was a big issue generating much of the election distrust seen in it’s wake. Even now, in 2022, PA is dealing with the discovery of 255,000 unverified ballots mailed out. The difference between now and 2 years ago, though, is an enlightened, motivated grass roots movement that has been put on alert for such deviations of state protocols. Also, numerically, there is a huge increase in citizens manning the polls – in total in PA there were 400 in 2020 to 6,000 in 2022.
jan: However, in the case of Dominion machines
In Georgia, they hand counted every ballot and confirmed the Dominion machine count to a very high accuracy.
Meanwhile, Dominion is suing a number of parties for such allegations.
jan: Even now, in 2022, PA is dealing with the discovery of 255,000 unverified ballots mailed out.
“Unverified” refers to ballot applications which are missing the required state ID or last four digits of their social security number). The voter has six days after the election to cure the ballot application, otherwise, the ballot is not counted. There are about 7,600 unverified ballot applications for the current election cycle.