IT WAS the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

In the run-up to the election on Tuesday there’s a lot of hyperventilating going on on both sides. Does it remind you of the opening lines of A Tale of Two Cities as it does me?

I’m here to tell you it doesn’t really matter. Will there be differences if Kerry is elected as opposed to Bush being re-elected? Of course. But the Republic will go on and endure and thrive.

It’s ironic that the best statements of this have been by an Iraqi and and a Kuwaiti in an Arabic forum from the BBC, brought to us by Omar of Iraq the Model. I’ll just give you their words without any further commentary:

“There won’t be a big difference; the American policy has constants and fixed principles and there are institutions that decide America’s interests not a group of people (administration) who do whatever they want. It’s the congress who plays the major role in the decision making process.
America is staying in Iraq whether it was a democratic or a republican man in the white house, besides, we all know that the law of the liberation of Iraq was released in Clinton’s days back in 1998. The American interests in Iraq and in the region demand a permanent existence for American forces to protect these interests and also to help and support the Iraqi government which is still weak and depends much on the American forces in managing the security situation in Iraq.

We may see only a reduction in the number of troops and this depends on how the security is going to improve in Iraq and on the Iraqi government gaining more control over the country and only then, the troops may be reduced but a total withdrawal is impossible.

The American vision about Iraq is that Iraq is the no.1 ally and the most important country for American interests in the region and consequently the American presence will remain strong and active”

Mohammed Al Khafaji-Babylon/Iraq.

“John Kerry cannot change the policies of the US in Iraq because the American policy (unlike the countries of the ME) is not monopolized by individuals. And no matter how high the price America is going to pay in Iraq, it will be for the best of the American people.”

Khalid Abdullah-Kuwait.

Lots of people use chestnuts over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Chestnuts for stuffing, roast chestnuts. A traditional Thanksgiving dish for us is braised chestnuts and brussels sprouts—it’s an excellent accompaniment for turkey.

Chestnuts can be a bit of a pain to work with. Removing the hulls is straightforward but tedious. It’s a real labor of love. Have you ever wondered why your chestnuts are hard to peel, why the pellicle (the inner shell) sticks so tight to the nut, or why so many of your nuts are moldy? I thought it was just part of dealing with chestnuts.

And then I learned the real truth. Most of the chestnuts in the market have been imported—mostly from Italy and Chile—and are old and haven’t been properly stored.

But there is a solution: buy your chestnuts straight from the orchard. Allen Creek Farms of Ridgefield, Washington is still shipping this year’s harvest. After harvesting they maintain their nuts in a climate controlled for both temperature and humidity so what you receive is absolutely the freshest nut available.

Before I started ordering direct from Allen Creek Farms I just didn’t realize how good chestnuts actually could be. They also have dried chestnuts, chestnut flour (from which you can make your own puree), and lots of other chestnut products. There’s still time so order your chestnuts now!

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This is beginning to get confusing. Michael J. Totten is posting over at Instapundit and Armed Liberal AKA Marc Danziger of Winds of Change is posting at Michael J. Totten (due to technical problems at WoC). AL has written an important post taking issue with the conclusions of the Century Foundation. AL quotes an from the Century Foundation’s paper:

…all three of these outlets have quickly achieved significant market share and at least a modicum of credibility among their listeners and viewers (see Figures 5.1 and 5.2, page 96). Polling data show that 74 percent of Iraqis watch al-Iraqiya on at least a weekly basis and 21 percent of those consider it “objective.”9 Al-Hurra, though not boasting ratings as high as al-Iraqiya’s, still claims a respectable average adult viewership of 29 percent in a dozen urban areas surveyed in North Africa, the Levant, and the Gulf region. Just over half of its viewers rate its news coverage as “very reliable” or “somewhat reliable.” Finally, Radio Sawa has staked out a weekly following of 38 percent of listeners polled in six Arab countries, including a high of 73 percent in Morocco. Remarkably, four of five listeners feel its news meets the same reliability criteria. Thus, on the basis of both market penetration and trust, these initiatives certainly appear successful at first glance.

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If your home is anything like ours, from now until Christmas your mailbox will be crammed full of catalogs. Frequently our mail carrier doesn’t even both trying to shoehorn the arriving catalogs into our mailbox. He (or she) will just dump the mail on our doorstep and flee as quickly as possible having unburdened his (or her) cart of another ten pounds of third class mail.

The variety of what we’re receiving is mind-numbing. We will receive at least a dozen copies of each of L. L. Bean’s many catalogs. We will receive some fairly upscale catalogs. And some that could best be labelled Kitsch ‘R Us.

Recently I’ve noticed that most or all of these catalogs have associated web sites. So, for your viewing pleasure, I’d like to direct you to one of each—high comedy and low.

From now until Christmas I think I’ll feature one site each day that I’ve found useful for holiday shopping or preparations. Or just hilarious.

I’ve been looking at the most recent set of poll compilations from Real Clear Politics. Clearly, the current trends are not particularly good for Kerry and he’ll have to do something to change that.

But I’ve been looking at something else as well. Am I imagining it or is there a periodicity in the sawtooth? My interpretation of that is that it appears to coincide with Kerry campaign surrogates fanning out and hitting the Sunday talking head programs to do damage control. But they haven’t been able to make any real headway—just damage control.

UPDATE: Steven Taylor quite rightly points out that these margins are quite small:

The bottom line for any and all analyses of these numbers: the margins are so small, I am not that any given variation that is within the MOE can be considered significant–nor can it likely be explained by any specific event or issue.

He’s right. It may be my imagination or chance. But I’m willing to bet a shiny new dime that the trend is of concern to the Kerry campaign and that the Kerry surrogates (including the MSM) will be out in force tomorrow morning to turn things around.

See also here.

Worlds of wanwood are certainly lying leafmeal over every path here. This is what I saw as I walked out my door early enough that my good neighbors had not yet had a chance to clear the leaves from yards and walks. We’ve had a lovely Indian Summer here this week. The skies have been (mostly) clear and the temperatures in the balmy seventies. They tell us that there’s a cold front coming in and the winds have picked strongly enough to toss the branches in every direction and steal most of the leaves from our trees.

Margaret, are you grieving
Over Goldengrove unleaving?
Leaves, like the things of man, you
With your fresh thoughts care for, can you?
Ah! as the heart grows older
It will come to such sights colder
By & by, nor spare a sigh
Though worlds of wanwood leafmeal lie;
And yet you wíll weep & know why.
Now no matter, child, the name:
Sorrow’s springs are the same.
Nor mouth had, no nor mind, expressed
What héart héard of, ghóst guéssed:
It is the blight man was born for,
It is Margaret you mourn for.

Gerard Manley Hopkins

As I mentioned here, I had nursing home duty this morning. By that I mean that I went to assist the residents of a local nursing home in preparing their ballots to vote absentee.

I was assigned to the same nursing home as last time but there were far fewer voters and it was much quieter and more orderly. There were no arguments, no shouting matches. No people with serious dementia telling me their life stories. In short, it was quite dull.

I arrived a little before 9:00am, helped my colleagues complete the setup, assisted about half of the voters in preparing their ballots (the other half either required no assistance or were assistend by someone else). For those who are concerned about this process, the voter must complete an affidavit requesting assistance and they are then assisted by two people—one Republican and one Democrat. We do our best to preserve the voter’s privacy during the process.

I won’t violate my voters’ privacy by telling you how they voted. Suffice it to say that it will be interesting to see how good a predictor the nursing home vote is for the final results.

Ray Fair of Yale University has produced his final pre-election 2004 prediction:

The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2004) were 2.7 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2, respectively. With the release of the NIPA data on October 29, 2004, all the actual economic data are available for the vote prediction. The actual values (as of October 29, 2004) of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS are 2.9 percent, 2.0 percent, and 2, respectively.

Given that the actual economic values are close to the values used for the previous vote prediction, the current vote prediction is little changed. The new economic values give a prediction of 57.70 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 57.48 percent before.

If Dr. Fair’s prediction proves wrong, it strongly suggests that it’s not the economy, stupid.

UPDATE: Apparently, the Labor Department has read Ray Fair’s prediction.

Carnival of the Recipes is up! This time it’s being hosted by SarahK of Mountaineer Musings. I see Throwdown Crawfish Etouffee, Shrimp Curry, Afghan Curry, and scads of other recipes. All four food groups are represented. That would be salt, grease, alcohol, and chocolate. And a few recipes for left-over turkey.