Continuing with the idea of the relationship between demographics and the economy that I’ve been promoting for some time, consider this graph from Deutsche Bank via Business Insider. It puts the ratio of those in their prime income earning years to the number of elders and the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP on the same graph.
Now it could just be a coincidence. Or, as I’ve been suggesting, there could be a real relationship there. I think even more interesting would be to put the inverse of the dependency ratio on the same graph.
Another at least marginally related factoid. In the most recent BLS employment situation report the sole age group showing a greater rate of employment than previously, indeed, a sharp increase, was those over 65.
Here in Chicago we celebrate a number of great ethnic holidays as city holidays. Unsurprisingly, there is one such holiday for each of the politically influential ethnic groups in the city.
Martin Luther King’s Birthday is the great African-American holiday. Cinco de Mayo is observed by our Mexican-American population. St. Patrick’s Day is a day of festivity for Chicago’s Irish-Americans. Pulaski Day is celebrated by my Polish neighbors.
And Columbus Day is a great Italian-American holiday.
Ironically, our view of Columbus is less one of the real man or even the Hispanic culture hero celebrated in Latin America as it is the re-invention promulgated by Washington Irving nearly 180 years ago. Irving viewed Columbus as sort of a proto-American. Here’s a snippet from Irving’s introduction:
It is the object of the following work, to relate the deeds and fortunes of the mariner who first had the judgment to divine, and the intrepidity to brave, the mysteries of this perilous deep; and who, by his hardy genius, his inflexible constancy, and his heroic courage, brought the ends of the earth into communication with each other. The narrative of his troubled life is the link which connects the history of the old world with that of the new.
In a round-table at the New York Times on why some have picked Woodrow Wilson as their bête noire in the last several years this passage leapt out at me:
Here is Wilson’s description of the Founders’ view in his “New Freedomâ€: The ideal of government was for every man to be left alone and not interfered with, except when he interfered with somebody else.†Wilson was exaggerating (the Founders favored government support of education, for example), but he is right about the gist of their approach.
Referring to his own time period, Wilson continues, “Life is so complicated that we are not dealing with the old conditions, and that the law has to step in and create new conditions under which we may live.†In other words, the Founders’ idea of protecting property rights is outmoded. We need a government that intrudes into and even micromanages the private sphere.
IMO that’s a succinct summary of the progressive vision and the heart of modern day progressives’ problem. It’s a vision which I suspect was much more effective 50, 60, or more years ago than it is now. As Wilson put it “life is so complicated that we are not dealing with the old conditions”. Today’s conditions are so much more complicated than they were in Wilson’s day that government regulation, social engineering, and economic engineering of the Keynesian sort have lost much of whatever effectiveness they once possessed. As Walter Russell Mead noted in a post from a few days ago:
The trouble is that most of the 20th century Democratic solutions won’t work very well in the vastly changed economic landscape of the 21st century. Whatever one thinks of Keynesian economics, the benefits of deficit spending were clearly greater in the 1930s (when the US was essentially a closed economy) than they are today. If Americans have more money to spend, they are likely to go down to Walmart and buy something from China. The multiplier effect of government spending is weaker than it used to be.
Worse, the disastrous growth of public sector labor unions and years of political pandering by shortsighted and selfish politicians have made government a much less effective tool than it used to be. Per-pupil spending no longer bears much relationship to educational outcomes; if we double spending on teacher salaries we are not likely to double, or perhaps even to improve, educational standards. The extraordinary cost of government in union-dominated, politically dysfunctional states like California, New York and Illinois imposes crippling tax burdens on local economies. Firing state employees and slashing the wages and pensions of those who remain will do more for these states, sadly, than bulking up state spending on exciting new programs.
Government investment to promote economic growth is also less promising than it used to be. The accelerated pace of technological innovation makes it harder to predict where the economic future lies; think of the French investment in the once famous ‘Mini-tel’ system, destined to be destroyed and made worthless by the rise of the Internet. Government planners, even Harvard-educated ones with Truly Gigantic Brains, are simply not able to predict what technologies will really matter twenty, ten or even five years down the road.
In my view we need a change of emphasis on what government should be about. Rather than placing impediments in way of the free flow of information, trade, capital, and transport there should be more attention to maintaining those flows. Today’s conditions are too complex for any experts, however benign or capable, to manage. The greater their efforts to impede the flow the more likely they are to be swept away by it.
We should view our military and particularly our navy as it was historically, as a means of maintaining the free flow of trade and transport. We should view our system of intellectual property as one that fosters the creators of new ideas rather than as one that aims to restrict the free flow of ideas, largely to the aggrandizement of the owners of ideas, frequently large companies. A main objective of our foreign policy should be to sweep away the barriers to trade, including our own rather than as a means of promoting the status quo. Our system of taxation should be one that supports commerce and creative destruction rather than one that aims to maintain the wealth of those who are already wealthy.
Unfortunately, our political system, rather than one that encourages and represents the aspirations of the American people is increasingly one in which battle lines drawn decades ago are fought over again and again, like vast squads of reenactors continually restaging the Battle of Gettysburg, all the more surreal because the real battles of today go on around them, unheeded.
Today’s octopi aren’t the railways. They are Big Government, Big Business, and Big Labor, locked in an unhealthy collaboration to expand their own wealth and influence.
We’ve had Lyric Opera subscriptions for more than 30 years now. First I had one and my wife and I have subscribed since we were first married. Lyric has produced Verdi’s 1847 opera roughly once every ten years over that period so until last night’s performance, the first in our 2010-2011 Lyric subscription, I had seen, I guess, three different productions of Macbeth at Lyric Opera. My recollection is that they were all snoozes so I looked forward to the performance with a certain amount of foreboding.
My expectations were not only exceeded; they were knocked out of the ballpark. This new production of Macbeth is one of the most vibrant and exciting new productions I’ve seen at Lyric in a long time.
The Italians sometimes say that Macbeth is l’opera senza amore, the opera without love, both for its lack of a love story and for the darkness of its content. I think that the creators of this new production must have taken that as a challenge and made the production as sexy as possible.
The sets, effects, and lighting are all riveting. I found the fire effect that opens the opera in Act I, Scene i particularly fascinating. The picture above doesn’t really do it justice. It really must be seen in motion to be appreciated.
The costumes of our Lady Macbeth, Nadja Michael, were the most daring I believe I’ve ever seen at Lyric short of outright nudity (someday I’ll post on my views of nudity at Lyric but that’s a subject for another time). Viz.:
This first act costume was a lowcut, flame-colored, floor length dress made of a jersey sort of material that clung to every inch of Ms. Michael’s body. She is in very good shape, I might add. This and the by my count five other costumes she wore, mostly negligeeish sort of affairs, left little doubt of that. I might just be showing my age but I thought that these ultra-sexy outfits verged on being distractions: Ms. Michael’s vital performance was the highlight of the work, her voice one of the most powerful and controlled women’s voices we’ve heard at Lyric in some time.
Indeed, all of the performances last night were, at the very least, solid and effective. The only weak spot was the expected weak staging of the chorus, a staple of Lyric Opera performances.
Don’t let that minor quibble influence you: I really don’t have enough superlatives to give to this new production. I saw a scandalously large number of empty seats in the house. Tickets are available!
Forget the kilts, plaids and tartans. Forget the painted-canvas castle walls. Forget all the quaint storybook clutter with which Verdi’s “Macbeth” is usually saddled.
Barbara Gaines, in her thoughtful and gripping new production at Lyric Opera of Chicago, has filtered this rip-roaring early Verdi work through her own singular vision of contemporary theater. The familiar tragedy about a bloody power grab in medieval Scotland becomes, in the Chicago director’s hands, a timeless domestic drama about a horribly dysfunctional couple who can’t stop murdering their way to the top. Think “The Sopranos,” but with real sopranos.
The new “Macbeth,” which opened Lyric’s 56th season Friday night at the Civic Opera House, was a relatively safe bet on the company’s part. By assigning the staging to Gaines, general director William Mason turned over the reins to a director who had never staged an opera before. But Gaines, founder and director of Chicago Shakespeare Theater, hardly needed to brush up on her Bard, and she clearly is respectful of Verdi’s intentions. She put her ideas at the service of the opera rather than the other way around, unlike David Alden in his notorious, Eurotrashy “Macbeth” at Lyric in 1999, the last time the company presented the work.
Without singing actors as fiercely invested in their roles as Thomas Hampson as the ambitious Macbeth and Nadja Michael as the conniving Lady Macbeth, Gaines’ concept no doubt would have been much less effective. The American baritone and German soprano (the latter in an impressive Lyric debut) made a really sexy power couple for whom lust for the throne clearly was an aphrodisiac. They received worthy support from a strong supporting cast and conductor Renato Palumbo, a seasoned Verdian in full command of his forces.
The distinguished American Thomas Hampson brings his well-known intelligence and care to the title role, especially with the Italianized Shakespeare lyrics. But his voice does not have the depth that this role requires, and his elegance belies his character’s increasingly animalistic behavior. It’s not surprising then that the singer’s greatest moments are heard in Macbeth’s aria that comes closest to introspection, Act Four’s “Pieta, rispetto, amore” (“Compassion, respect, love”) sung as Birnam Wood begins its fateful march on him and his tyranny.
In her Lyric debut, German soprano Nadja Michael enacted both sides of her reputation — a striking, athletic physical presence paired with a voice that frequently seems out of control or oddly matched to the score. Costumed by Virgil C. Johnson to bring out Michael’s own fierceness and that of her sick and scheming character (and her resemblance to Annie Lennox), Michael consistently undercuts her hold on your visual attention with a voice too often too large and almost always at least slightly flat. Those fortunate to have seen the late Piero Cappuccilli and Grace Bumbry (Lyric’s first Lady Macbeth, in 1969) and Shirley Verrett in these roles had to wonder how Friday’s audience was able to fully appreciate Verdi’s great and so often subtle accomplishment in this, one of his breakthrough works as both a composer and dramatist.
That parallels a discussion I had with my wife during intermission in which I expressed some dissatisfaction with Thomas Hampson’s Macbeth, much along the lines the Mr. Patner notes.
As far as we are concerned, the ‘Macbeth’ of this work’s title is definitely of the female variety. Lady Macbeth drives the entire plot here, and the intensity of her ambition is nothing short of sociopathic. We first encounter her in an empty chamber illuminated by a hundred candles, the flames and German soprano Nadja Michael’s magnificent voice reflected by the curving wall right into the very heart of the audience. A tremendously gifted physical actress with an impressive vocal range (she began her career as a mezzo), Michael delivers a sinuous, sensual performance that has the audience riveted whenever she takes the stage. Her Lady Macbeth has a blow-torch intensity and the heat between her and Hampson is palpable. No wonder poor Macbeth is driven to murder and destruction, despite being haunted by his ill-conceived actions! His overwhelming passion for his lady and her unbridled quest for power completely blow away all reason and logic. When in the course of the murderous spree that clears his path to the Scottish throne, Macbeth’s conscience causes him to falter; Lady Macbeth picks up the dagger and finishes the job herself, then coolly wipes off the blade on her blood-soaked white gown. Positively electrifying.
Supported by an amazing cast, including stand-out tenor Leonard Capalbo as Macduff; this performance was everything an opening night of world-class opera should be. The Lyric Opera chorus brings complexity and depth to the epic crowd scenes (in Verdi’s Macbeth the three witches become a coven) and the entire production is borne on the shoulders of the fantastic Lyric orchestra, under the direction of internationally acclaimed opera conductor (and Chicago favorite) Renato Palumbo. Despite a few clunky scene changes in the early going and pacing that lagged a bit in the 4th act (sure to be tightened up as the production matures) Macbeth is an absolutely dazzling experience.
Although Hampson is billed as the star of the show, and he certainly delivers, the real standout is Nadja Michael as Lady Macbeth. This woman is absolutely outstanding, with a stunning presence anytime she’s onstage. The amount of endurance and vocal strength required to sing her four arias must be a harrowing task. Yet she does it without ever dropping her energy. And although the production is in Italian (with English super-titles), Michael’s acting and vocal inflection are paired so perfectly that you know what she is saying even if you have absolutely no clue what she is saying.
Leonardo Capalbo, as Macbeth’s foe Macduff, executes an aria in the fourth act that outdoes all the other male cast members. Sung right after he discovers Macbeth has slain Macduff’s entire family, it is a powerful and tragic piece that is infused with real heart, mourning and rage.
Unfortunately, Štefan Kocán’s portrayal of Banquo. Kocan is not as impressive – he has a uniquely guttural voice that, while I appreciate its distinctiveness, serves as a distraction.
I thought that Kocán’s Banquo had an intensity that I appreciated and, indeed, missed in Hampson’s Macbeth.
Today would have been my dad’s 96th birthday. As it was he barely made it to half that. Had he lived just a few more years it would have changed my life in so many ways I can hardly begin to reckon the difference. I would have become a lawyer; I would have remained in St. Louis.
I would never have met or married my wife, my best friend and life’s chiefest blessing. Which illustrates that our lives can take many a turn.
The picture above is on my parents’ wedding day. I posted it for several reasons among them that it captures both of my parents together, something that’s fairly rare. Like me my dad disliked having his picture taken and in most pictures affects a sort of Teutonic solemnity.
But in this picture he’s smiling. Both of them are. Smiles were not rare in our home and that’s how I wish to remember them.
In the update to this post I considered a few issues about Illinois state government revenues. Now let’s look at the expense side of the ledger.
In 2007 Illinois’s total spending was $45 billion. In 2009 although revenues had dropped significantly expenses had risen to $52.5 billion. And in 2010, as revenues still fall, expenses are expected to climb farther to $56.6 billion. An enormous proportion of that, roughly a quarter, and much of the growth is in healthcare expenses.
I’d also like to commend your attention to a brilliant pickup by Clayton Cramer on the relevance of Federalist No. 62 to our present economic circumstances. Hat tip: Glenn Reynolds.
We didn’t make this stuff up, you know. The knowledge has been available to anyone willing to observe the behavior of other human beings rather than pore over numbers on a page.
To quote an even older source, there truly is nothing new under the sun.
There’s a round table discussion of the prospects for electric cars in the United States going on over at the New York Times that I wanted to commend to your attention. Opinions range from “this time it’s really, really different” and electric cars will succeed to “no way, no how”.
Although they might make more sense in some European countries, in South Korea, or in Japan, I think that electric cars will remain a niche product in the United States. Even if Nissan were able to ramp production up rapidly to 150,000 vehicles a year, that still won’t make much of a dent in the U. S. fleet. The U. S. fleet is about 250 million vehicles. If it were to be replaced over a 20 year period, that would require production in the vicinity of 12.5 million vehicles per year, many orders of magnitude about Nissan’s target.
IMO the key obstacle is batteries. To date producing batteries adequate for use in passenger vehicles in anything resembling true production quantities has proven elusive. As I’ve said here before, I have doubts that it can be done, at least not economically. It’s only the subsidies that render the electrics viable now.
Even if the mass production problems could be licked, the grid would still remain inadequate to the load required for significant numbers of electric vehicles.
A century ago there were many different ways in which passenger vehicles were powered. There was the internal combustion engine that eventually became king of the hill and which most roadworthy vehicles these days employ but there were also external combustion engines, the most famous probably being the Stanley Steamer, heat exchange systems based on the Stirling engine, and electric cars. The internal combustion engine won because of its low cost, high power to weight ratio, the very low price of oil, and good advertising. I suspect those factors will maintain the internal combustion engine’s primacy for many years to come. The Otto engines are already more efficient users of oil than the hybrids and there are probably more efficiencies to be realized in them.
And when oil gets too expensive there’s always the Stirling.
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000).
A little farther down is the bad news:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose by 612,000 over the month to 9.5 million. Over the past 2 months, the number of such workers has increased by 943,000. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in September, up from 2.2 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in September, an increase of 503,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
This report is the last employment situation report before the midterm elections and it’s not the good news that we all and particularly Democrats running for re-election might have hoped for. Certainly it’s better than further declines but it’s not precisely the stuff of which high animal spirits are made.
Happy Days Are Here Again was the campaign song for Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s successful 1932 presidential campaign in the depths of the Depression. Although “increase aggregate demand” may be a rollicking theme for the gang of merrymakers down at The Harvard Club, I doubt it’s going to boost the mood of the country. What in the world has happened to the Democrats these days, to all of us? From the lugubrious tone, predisposition to blame others for our misfortunes, and tendency to apologize at the drop of a hat you would think that we have become a nation of Uriah Heeps.
The U.S. does not have the luxury of waiting indefinitely for job growth to resume. Already we’re at the absolute limit: any longer, and most of the unemployed will be long-term unemployed and, to a first approximation, unemployable. This country simply can’t afford an unemployable underclass of the long-term unemployed — not morally, not economically, and not fiscally, either.
I would like to quibble with Mr. Salmon about one thing, however. State and local governments are not running out of money. Work rules in state and local governments encourage layoffs rather than aligning the compensation of public workers to realistic levels based on actual revenues.
Money continues to pour into state and local government coffers albeit at lower levels than in 2007. Here in Illinois total state revenue was around $58.5 billion. In 2009 it was around $43 billion and in 2010 about $41 billion. $41 billion is not nothing. It’s just substantially less than $58 billion. Illinois, a state in which both houses of the legislature and the governor’s mansion are controlled by Democrats, has elected not to increase taxes. But it has also elected not to cut pay. Its alternative is to cut jobs.
I might add that the greatest fiscal problem for most state and local government is healthcare spending. But we’ve reformed healthcare, haven’t we?
Glenn Reynolds wonders about The Gap’s new logo, pictured here. In my view is illustrates the triumph of computer graphics over pen-and-ink graphics.
I think it also bear mentioning, continuing with my theme of the effects of demographic change on the economy, that we will almost certainly see a major purge in the number of major brands. I’m afraid it’s going to be sort of post-apocalyptic with the survivors desparately battling over the few scraps that remain.
