Old narrative: Russia doesn’t have enough ability to project power to have a significant effect in Syria
New narrative: Russia doesn’t have the staying power to maintain its present level of activity
If the Russians’ claims are to be believed, they’ve flown as many sorties in the last couple of weeks as the U. S. has since it began its campaign a year ago:
Moscow (AFP) – Russia has hit more than 380 “Islamic State targets” since launching its bombing campaign in Syria on September 30, a senior military official said on Friday.
“Since the start of the operation we conducted more than 600 sorties and bombed more than 380 IS targets,” Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov, a senior Russian General Staff official, told Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda.
Russia launched a bombing campaign in Syria late last month in support of forces loyal to its longstanding ally President Bashar al-Assad.
Moscow’s military has almost uniformly claimed its strikes have hit “Islamic State” targets despite the fact that many of the sites struck seem to fall outside territory held by the group.
The US and other members of a rival coalition targeting IS say Moscow has focused the bulk of its firepower on other rebel groups battling Assad.
Kartapolov slammed the US-led coalition, saying the US had not responded to Russia’s invitation to cooperate in the fight against IS.
The Russians have a much clearer mission in Syria. Their view is that the only good Syrian rebel is a dead one. We’re still trying to identify and support the moderate rebels. That reminds me of Reagan’s manure pile story.
Earlier this morning I noted the reported involvement of Cuban troops in Syria. That move and the recent Iranian missile test cast real doubt on the administration’s policy of rapprochement:
Iran’s test of a ballistic missile earlier this week was a clear violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution and sends “a worrying message”, French Foreign Ministry spokesman Romain Nadal said on Thursday.
Iran tested a new precision-guided ballistic missile on Sunday in defiance of a United Nations ban, signaling an apparent advance in Iranian attempts to improve the accuracy of its missile arsenal.
“The Oct. 11 launch constitutes a clear violation of this resolution (1929). It is a worrying message from Iran to the international community,” Nadal told reporters in a daily briefing.
Ballistic missile tests by Iran are banned under Security Council resolution 1929, which dates from 2010 and remains valid until a nuclear deal dating from July 14 this year goes into effect.
1) I don’t believe everything our government tells us. I don’t see any reason to believe everything the Russians say.
2) Staying power is always the question. ISIS is the new caliphate, or at least that is a big part of their schtick. If they are willing to come out and fight, the Russians clearly have a better military. The issue will then be how long they are willing and able to stick it out. They faced the same thing in Afghanistan and we did in Iraq.
Steve
I never saw the ‘not able to project force’ narrative. Nor the ‘no staying power’ narrative.
The narrative I’m seeing – and I suspect may turn out to be the case – is that the Russians just ran headlong into the quicksand into which we only dipped a toe.
I guess I’m at a loss to see the downside. Either the Russians do a great job of killing ISIS, in which case, good on ya’ Vlad. Or they’re at the start of Afghanistan II: Now With Extra Crazy. in which case, hah hah hah.
I’m supposed to be upset that, what, Russia has a naval base in the Med? I suppose that’s important to their self-esteem, but a quick glance at the map will tell you no Russian ship visits Syria unless we and our allies allow it. We own the Med.
Or is it a fear that Russia will have ‘influence’ in the ME? We’ve had a hell of a lot of influence there for quite a long while and I’m damned if I see the net profit for us. So, Russia will have ‘influence’ in Syria? And they get what, exactly, from that? It harms us how?
That’s pretty much the way I see it, Michael.
But I’m not an “American hegemony” kind of guy. I’m more of a “balance of power” kind of guy. Our interests and Russian interests barely overlap at all.
Ukraine and Syria are both in Russia’s “near abroad”. In both places we’ve been working against our own interests or at best in ways that don’t particularly further our interests for what? To needle Russia? Why?
Hello, Michael. I trust you are doing well.
Better than I have any right to be doing, Guarneri. Four books under contract and my wife’s been sitting on the bestseller list for two years now. She’s got a movie deal, I’ve got a TV deal – neither greenlit, yet. Our son’s at college with a full scholarship – we don’t know how, given that he basically skipped 80% of junior year and 95% of senior year – but he’s there. Our daughter has mainstreamed into high school and instantly acquired an expanding circle of friends. (She’s adopted and has social skills that are definitely not part of our family DNA.)
But of course I’m too much of a Jew not to expect the Cossacks at any moment. The boy is too much me so sooner or later there will be trouble there.
Dave:
I think the answer is that Americans don’t understand that Greatest Power ≠All Power. We thought our ascent to Sole Superpower would somehow be welcomed as natural and desirable by one and all. Turns out: nope.
Hubris. The disease that afflicts the powerful.
Glad to hear it. As for Cossacks, it’s called life. Not sure I’ve ever shared this, but when I was at the bank it was an all Jews all the time department. One of the best times of my career – some great people – but I understand the mindset.
My daughter is in the midst of the college admissions process. Admitted to a top 10 business school, so that’s a good back up, but awaiting word at Wake, Tulane and Richmond. I know what daddy wants……
Hope you decide to comment here more often. Doug, James and Steven write some good stuff but the commentariat is largely useless.
I think the whole Russian, U.S. relationship in the ME is far more complicated, with intrinsic subtleties, that far outweigh what is being publicly discussed.
The world seems to function better under a management of power equilibrium. Maintaining such equilibrium is similar to tilting a level, siting the bubble in the middle, in order to avoid a crooked, sloping construct. A slight jar, one way or the other, disrupts the bubble in a construction level as well as the level of power exercised by countries.
Russia, in trying to recoup it’s status in the world by more aggressive acts, is a disrupting influence (destabilizing the bubble) all over the world. It has tested the waters in Crimea, then Ukraine, and now is flexing muscle in Syria, Iran and so on. Putin seems to delight in demonstrating, again and again, how non-engaged a world power counterpart Obama really is. In doing so Putin is messaging to the ME and European leaders that he is the mover-and-shaker, one to be both feared and depended on, not America. Consequently, allies are less receptive to concerns or threats uttered by the U.S.
So far, there’s been little harm and few fouls felt by this county — as long as you don’t count American/military humiliation or demoralization in the calculus. But, the kind of safe stasis we’ll experiencing (how many selfies can a person store on their latest iphone?) does not guarantee us anything more than the present moment to savor. Self promotion and ideological preoccupation seems to anesthetize most people from considering the multitude of potential problems waiting to ignite — involving cyber/electric grid breaches, open borders, Syrian refugees flooding the country, a limping economy that can’t get beyond pathetic interest rates to stay afloat, Iran’s unreliability as it accesses money, more arms and ballistic missile capabilities, along with all the racial, cultural, extreme right/left unrest enveloping this country. We are just too busy creating and sustaining our own quagmire of social, monetary deficits and divides to even care about the ramifications of the incremental slide of respect from both allies and enemies.
This is why I’m not as dismissive of Russia, nor what kind of vulnerability we’re cultivating because of our “meh” attitude to what’s happening in the world around us, as so many of you are.
For well over a century we’ve had a persistent albeit unstated policy to keep our neighbors weak. With modern communications and transportation everybody is our neighbor.
jan:
I think you’ve got the causality backwards. We’ve been the aggressors. The Russians are reacting. The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. The ousting of Saddam Hussein. Then we threw Mubarak under the bus followed by a sort of dance of the seven veils with the Muslim Brotherhood. Next we connived at the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya. Word is that he was wounded by a U. S. airstrike prior to the rebels killing him. We still don’t know what happened.
We encourage Georgia to join NATO; then Ukraine. It’s not hard to see why the Russians might have gotten the idea that they’re being pushed back including in countries that they really need to be friendly or at the very worst neutral (Ukraine).
BTW, don’t overestimate how tight the Russians are with the Iranians. The Red Army occupied a good chunk of Iran during WWII and they wouldn’t mind doing so again. The Iranians are aware of that. The Soviets supported the Tudeh not the Islamists. If we hadn’t backed the Shah Iran would have ended up as a Soviet republic. It’s more an enemy of my enemy kind of thing.
The one steady in US policy abroad has been to keep Germany and Russia at odds (prevent a grand Eurasian Empire) and Israel dominant in the Mideast.
I’m convinced because of the relative superannuated nature of the “Anglo” element of the Elite, the latter policy was made vibrant by The Lobby, without which, the US would have reduced its presence significantly the Mideast by now, not that the “Anglo” isn’t a team player with same.
I find all commentary to be useless in practicality except as stimuli for thought. Thought is useless without power. Jews, it seems are extremely verbal people. Good exercise for the neurons. I myself am not Jewish, just find all and everything interesting to discuss and my wife gets tired of my yak. So I guess I’ll stay tuned in and keep comments to a minimum 🙂