In Foreign Affairs Max Bergmann argues for “regime change” in Russia:
Such a speech from Biden would assert that the obstacle to the West’s positive relations with Russia is Putin. Biden could remind Russians that when he entered office, he sought to engage and work with Putin, holding a summit in June 2021 with him in Geneva. Months later, Putin launched his unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine. He has demonstrated to Western leaders that he cannot be trusted and therefore cannot broker a lasting peace. He has lost all credibility. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for him for alleged war crimes. As long as Putin leads Russia, the United States and Russia will be adversaries and U.S. sanctions will remain in place.
adding an argument that Putin’s replacement could be no worse:
The prevailing assumption is that a Russian hard-line nationalist would be most likely to replace Putin. But Putin is already a hard-line nationalist.
I find many things in the piece puzzling. He confuses replacing a man with regime change, common in the Western press. If Putin were to be replaced it is very unlikely to be constitute regime change any more than electing Joe Biden president did.
Another is his assessment of Putin. He isn’t a “hard-line nationalist” but more of a centrist from a Russian perspective. Poll after poll has shown strong support of the war by Russians. Indeed, it appears to be the case that more think that Putin has been too lenient than that he has been too harsh.
I also find his account of the Prigozhin episode puzzling. Okay, what happened two weeks ago and how do you know? I’ve read explanations going every which way including that Prigozhin’s march towards Moscow was at President Putin’s behest to provide a pretext for removing military leaders who were inconvenient. I have no idea what happened and don’t honestly know how anyone else does, either. It remains mysterious.
What qualifies Mr. Bergmann to make such sweeping pronouncements? I’ve read his CV and to my eye it looks like that of a typical apparatchik.
Just replace “Putin” with “Saddam” and “Ukraine” with “Kuwait” in Bergmann’s pieces.
And then let’s assume getting rid of Putin would be a certain demonstrable improvement – how are “we” supposed to achieve that exactly?
My interpretation of his plan is that he expects Russian elites to oust Putin. That those elites are actually more nationalistic and hard-line than Putin does not seem to have occurred to him.
I’m just scratching the surface of the problems with the piece here. For example, note in the portion I’ve quoted that he assumes that WE can dictate to the Russians what their interests are. That’s how the war in Ukraine began.
In March/April 2022, a month after invading Ukraine, representatives from Ukraine and Russia initialed a ceasefire that would have had the effect of implementing the Minsk agreements and of keeping the Donbas in Ukraine. Crimea would have been ceded to Russia. Russia withdrew its forces from Kiev as a sign of good faith. The US squelched the ceasefire.
That fact tells you all you need to know. Putin and Zelensky wanted peace. The Biden administration, whoever they are, wanted war.
The US ran the coup that removed the legitimate, democratically elected government of Ukraine, and installed the current illegitimate junta. The US supported 8 years of the junta shelling separatist civilians in the Donbas. The US has prevented every attempt at a peaceful settlement, and it has continually escalated the conflict, wantonly reckless of the ratcheting towards a nuclear WW III.
The problem is not in Moscow. It is in Washington. It is the American people that need regime change in Washington. So does the rest of the world.
The most likely outcome, in a year or so, is that Russia imposes surrender terms on the junta, and carves up Ukraine. This will be a defeat of the US, worse than Afghanistan or Viet Nam. It will likely lead to the collapse of the Global American Empire/alliance system, and perhaps the regime in Washington, itself.
Do you think we will have elections in 2024, or is the regime done with that?
“he assumes that WE can dictate to the Russians what their interests are. That’s how the war in Ukraine began”
Nope, war began because Russia wanted to remake its empire. They needed Ukraine either conquered or subservient to achieve that.
Steve