One step forward, one step back (UPDATED)

There’s been a wonderful step forward for the people of Ukraine:

Ukraine’s Yushchenko Declares Victory

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) – Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko said Monday that Ukraine will finally be free after declaring himself the winner of the rerun of fraud-filled presidential elections, while supporters of his pro-Russian opponent vowed to challenge the results in court.

The Western-leaning Yushchenko, who was disfigured by dioxin poisoning, thanked orange-clad protesters who spent weeks camped out in the capital’s frigid streets for helping secure his electoral victory Sunday. Orange is his campaign color.

“Now, today, the Ukrainian people have won. I congratulate you,” he told a jubilant crowd in Kiev’s Independence Square, the center of massive protests following the Nov. 21 presidential runoff that was annulled after fraud allegations.

“We have been independent for 14 years but we were not free. Now we can say this is a thing of the past. Now we are facing an independent and free Ukraine.”

[…]

Voters had faced a crucial choice. Ukraine, a nation of 48 million people, is caught between the eastward-expanding European Union and NATO, and an increasingly assertive Russia, its former imperial and Soviet-era master.

Yushchenko, a former Central Bank chief and prime minister, wants to bring Ukraine closer to the West and advance economic and political reform. Yanukovych emphasizes tightening the Slavic country’s ties with Russia as a means of maintaining stability.

But China has taken a step back:

China Vows to Prevent Taiwan Independence

BEIJING/TAIPEI (Reuters) – China’s military will crush any major moves toward independence by Taiwan, a Beijing government policy paper said on Monday, prompting the self-governing island to accuse Beijing of escalating tensions.

The defense paper was released as senior Chinese lawmakers discussed a draft anti-secession law that analysts say may legally bind China to take military action if the island it claims as a renegade province declares statehood.

“Should the Taiwan authorities go so far as to make a reckless attempt that constitutes a major incident of ‘Taiwan independence’, the Chinese people and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost,” the paper said.

Taipei called on the world community “to stop China before it is too late.”

Of course, both China and Taiwan are completely in agreement that the situation is the United States’s fault.

In addition to its assertion of a very hardline policy with respect to Taiwan, the paper also includes a re-statement of China’s commitment to modernize its military and a brief discussion of the dangers on the Korean peninsula. More on the white paper here.

If, as Thomas Barnett, author of The Pentagon’s New Map, says, disconnectedness equals danger, these developments are a distinctly mixed bag. Ukraine’s greater connectedness to the West should bring greater security. But the move also functions to further isolate Russia.

And the three-way tensions among China, Taiwan, and the United States have been ratcheted up one more notch. I don’t see any way that this can be construed as good news.

UPDATE: The complete text of the defense white paper is here (hat tip: American Future).

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