One Month In


Today marks the end of one month of vaccinating Americans against SARS-CoV-2. Here’s a report by Madeline Buckley and Joe Mahr from the Chicago Tribune on the State of Illinois’s progress to date:

Though COVID-19 vaccines could be available soon for essential workers and older people throughout the state, most county health departments in the Chicago area are still working to vaccinate those included in the initial phase — health care workers, and those working and residing in long-term care facilities.

Data released on Tuesday shows that roughly 1 in 45 Illinoisans has gotten at least the first shot of a vaccine, with wide variations across the state.

The new batch of data — the state’s first broad release of COVID-19 vaccination numbers since vaccinations began about four weeks ago — comes a day after Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said county health departments can begin vaccinating people in phase 1b if they have already run through people in the initial phase who want the inoculation, so as not to leave doses sitting on the shelf. The state as a whole remains in phase 1a.

The data comes as Illinois grapples with how best to roll out the vaccine, including when and where to expand vaccinations to senior citizens and front-line essential workers. The state’s 1b phase includes people 65 and older, and workers such as first responders, teachers, grocery store workers and public transit workers.

The graphic at the top of this post is from the Illinois Department of Public Health. The two dips in vaccinations you see in the trend line represent Christmas and New Years. If that trend holds I would say it actually looks pretty favorable but at this point it’s really to early to tell. The accompanying heatmap illustrates how far we have to go.

11 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    My sister’s memory care home is finally getting the vaccine – after a dozen deaths and 50+ infections. I was told that even though my sister had Covid and recovered that she should still get the vaccine, so I signed the authorization papers. She should get the first shot next week.

  • steve Link

    Warn her that her side effects may be worse. That is what we are seeing with people who were already infected.

    Steve

  • PD Shaw Link

    @Andy, sounds good I think? I have the impression that vaccination of long-term care residents are not proceeding as fast as hoped, and I saw a claim that West Virginia is doing it faster because they did not partner with the pharmacies. I’d guess informed consent, including from those with power of attorneys, take time, and the pharmacies don’t want to take more trips than necessary.

  • Andy Link

    “Warn her that her side effects may be worse. That is what we are seeing with people who were already infected.”

    Thanks Steve, I’ll let the staff know and discuss it with her doctor. My sister is severely cognitively impaired and doesn’t understand much of anything anymore, so she wouldn’t understand if I tried to tell her. Plus I have actually been able to see her since August – I’m just hoping she still recognizes me whenever that will be allowed again. She was still good with faces, but language and memory are severely impaired. I’m her court-appointed legal guardian and make all decisions for her including medical care.

    @PD – yes, I guess it’s good, but really comes too late. A lot of elder care facilities up and down the Colorado front range had large outbreaks starting late November/early December. But this progress is good and should still save many lives.

    I read that article about West Virginia too. The program here for my sister’s facility appears to be the federal program run through CVS pharmacies. And yeah, the informed consent does take time. I had the forms signed and returned within an hour of receiving them, but since they are doing all the residents at once, they have to wait until all the forms for everyone are turned in which isn’t expected until next week.

  • PD Shaw Link

    @steve, I saw some analysis from Lyman Stone last night that indicated that the federal government has allotted Pennsylvania the fewest vaccines as a percentage of its priority population (healthcare personnel and long-term care residents):

    https://mobile.twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1349379595410280459/photo/1

    Illinois has been allotted the fourth fewest, but somehow has received 110% of its allotment. I assume some of this is demographic (relatively older populations), but some other factors seem to be in play.

    The other analysis Stone made was that states getting proportionately more vaccines use proportionately more of the vaccines they have been given. That seems to make sense, if the vaccines are scare and future shipments uncertain, not a lot of incentives to build up infrastructure.

  • Drew Link
  • PD Shaw Link

    According to the Chicago Tribune article, my county has the most vaccinated with first dose in the State, which I’ve got at 5.2%. It looks like the County has been distributed vaccines proportionate to its population, but probably has vaccinated more because the healthcare sector is its largest employer and most of the vaccinations have been through the hospitals.

  • Steve Link

    We have been frustrated. Ready to go but state wasn’t giving go ahead. Now that I see how little we got allotted have to wonder if that was affecting their decision making process. On the plus side our IT folks have been busting so we can get people in quickly.

    Andy. Didn’t know. They should be prepared then.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    This is a good article listing out factors why the UK is speeding away in vaccinations vs Europe or the US.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/8-reasons-why-uk-leads-europe-coronavirus-vaccination-race/

    The sobering reality is the UK models show even if the UK vaccination campaign meets their target, it is going to take until Mid-March to see a noticeable difference in deaths and health care load.

  • I also think there will be some factors they haven’t anticipated. For example, at least here in Illinois, some official decisions are based on the test positivity rate. Will vaccination result in the test positivity rate falling or rising? I won’t be surprised if it rises.

  • steve Link

    BTW, people still gather outside of hospitals and chant “Covid is a Hoax”. The cult will have a hard time ever accepting it.

    https://quillette.com/2021/01/16/rise-of-the-coronavirus-cranks/

    Steve

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