On the one hand

On the one hand Israel has launched a raid deep into Lebanese territory:

BEIRUT, Lebanon – Hezbollah fighters battled Israeli commandos who landed near the militants’ stronghold deep inside Lebanon early Saturday, killing one soldier, in the first large-scale violation of the U.N.-brokered cease-fire between the sides.

Hezbollah said its guerrillas foiled the raid after a gunbattle, and the Israeli army said one soldier was killed and two were wounded, one seriously.

Witnesses said Israeli missiles destroyed a bridge during the raid — the first major violation of the U.N.-imposed cease-fire that took effect Monday following 34 days of fighting.

On the other the Syrians and Iranians seem to be re-arming Hezbollah (ibid):

The Israeli army said the special forces operation aimed “to prevent and interfere with terror activity against Israel, especially the smuggling of arms from Iran and Syria to Hezbollah.” It said the commando team completed its mission.

The army said such operations would be carried out until “an effective monitoring unit” of Lebanese or multinational troops was in place.

“If the Syrians and Iran continue to arm Hezbollah in violation of the (U.N. cease-fire) resolution, Israel is entitled to act to defend the principle of the arms embargo,” Israeli foreign ministry spokesman Mark Regev said.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese army has no interest in disarming Hezbollah, the French plan to return to the status quo ante is proceeding well (and without much expenditure on the part of the French), and my analysis (“Wait, while I reload!”) is holding true.

I certainly hope they tell us when the ceasefire is over.