Never Tell Me the Odds!

In an interview at Bloomberg John Kerry, recently appointed the Biden Administration’s point man on climate change, telegraphs what the administration’s plans are:

We need government incentives, maybe in the form of tax credits. But the private sector also needs to begin making these practices profitable and demonstrating the productivity advantages. All food needs to be climate-smart. Keep in mind, though, that agriculture is about 10% of total GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions versus 27% for transportation, 27% for power production. Big difference

He left out something. Construction presently accounts for about 11% of GHG emissions. If anything resembling the Green New Deal is enacted into law, that will increase substantially to the point where it rivals transportation and energy production. I’ve already expressed my skepticism about the likelihood of increasing emissions as a strategy for decreasing emissions.

Speaking of skepticism this remark of Mr. Kerry’s caused me to raise an eyebrow:

If we do it properly, I don’t believe there has to be pain. I don’t accept that. I think this could be a very smooth, normal economic transition and we can ease any negativity for people by making sure that we’re there to help them transition. Larry Fink of BlackRock was right when he said [to private sector leaders] we can’t just be corporate entities in a nation that cares about shareholders. We have to shift our focus to stakeholders.

or, said another way, ignore the costs and focus on the benefits. You can justify any boneheaded policy that way.

That immediately impelled me to research the frequently encountered claims about “green jobs”. It’s extremely difficult to find non-partisan, non-ideological sources for that information. The best I could find was a couple of pieces at the National Bureau of Economic Research which basically complained about the low level of the scholarship on this issue. The honest truth is that no one knows whether the path down which the Biden Administration seems to be determined to forge will increase the total number of jobs, decrease the total number of jobs, eliminate jobs for some while creating jobs for others (my bet), or something else. Nobody knows and once we’ve started down that road it will be quite hard to reverse course.If we do it properly, I don’t believe there has to be pain. I don’t accept that. I think this could be a very smooth, normal economic transition and we can ease any negativity for people by making sure that we’re there to help them transition. Larry Fink of BlackRock was right when he said [to private sector leaders] we can’t just be corporate entities in a nation that cares about shareholders. We have to shift our focus to stakeholders.

One last point. There is no such thing as completely carbon-free energy. Every power plant requires backup power generation and that is inevitably based on gas or coal. Repeat: wind and solar need reliable standby power. I’m sitting in the place where power is the most carbon-free in the country—most of our electrical power around here is generated by several nuclear power plants built long ago. Our carbon emissions are actually increasing as those old nukes are decommissioned.

4 comments… add one
  • Drew Link

    Is there a reason to waste valuable time thinking about John Kerry? John Kerry??

  • Grey Shambler Link

    He’s now a czar, no longer just a windbag. Listen to learn where the Federal money will flow.
    https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/offshore-wind

    If it doesn’t work, billions will still be made in the attempt.

  • bob sykes Link

    H. L. Mencken: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

    The economic wrecking of both Western Europe and North America will greatly ease the apprehensions of the Russian and Chinese rulers. They have won! Generations of history doctoral candidates will write dissertations trying to explain the suicide of the West.

    Except they won’t be writing at Western European or North American (defunct) univerisites.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    The climate is changing Jorel, nothing in our past or experience compares to this crisis. Everything is on the line. Death, extinction, a smoldering, blackened cinder of a planet, a wandering cosmic clinker.
    What difference does it make, at this point, who rules us, we have failed.
    Those misguided fools who voted for nationalism over multinational subservience wasted their powder on a fitful farce at the Capitol.
    They are now disgraced and beclowned. Czars will rule us. We will stand bewildered before the new rules and the new rulers. Powerless and voiceless. It looks very dark for freedom.
    Climate science as a bludgeon against reason and reasonable men.
    Climate science and consensus are holy writ.

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