The Bureau of Labor Statistics has produced its monthly assessment of the employment situation for April 2010:
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment also rose, reflecting continued hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010.
[…]
In April, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000. Sizable employment gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and in
leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment increased due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010. Since December, nonfarm payroll employment has expanded by 573,000, with 483,000 jobs added in the private sector. The vast majority of job growth occurred during the last 2 months. (See table B-1.)Manufacturing added 44,000 jobs in April. Since December, factory employment has risen by 101,000. Over the month, gains occurred in several durable goods industries, including fabricated metals (9,000) and machinery (7,000). Employment also grew in nondurable goods manufacturing (14,000).
Mining added 7,000 jobs in April, with most of the increase in support activities for mining. Since last October, mining has added 39,000 jobs.
In April, construction employment edged up (14,000), following an increase of 26,000 in March. Over the month, nonresidential building and heavy construction added 9,000 jobs each.
Employment in professional and business services rose by 80,000 in April. Temporary help services continued to add jobs (26,000); employment in this industry has increased by 330,000 since September 2009. Employment also rose over the month in services to buildings and dwellings (23,000) and in computer systems design (7,000).
In April, health care employment grew by 20,000, including a gain of 6,000 in hospitals. Over the past year, health care employment has increased by 244,000.
Employment rose by 45,000 in leisure and hospitality over the month. Much of this increase occurred in accommodation and food services, which added 29,000 jobs. Food services employment has risen by 84,000 over the past 4 months, while accommodation has added 18,000 jobs over the past 3 months.
Fderal government employment was up in April, reflecting the hiring of 66,000 temporary workers for the decennial census.
Over the month, employment changed little in wholesale trade, retail trade, information, and financial activities.
Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 20,000 in April, reflecting a large decline in courier and messenger services.
Presumably, the reason for the higher unemployment rate despite the larger numbers of employed people is because more people are trying to get jobs than was the case a month ago. It’s a counter-intuitive peculiarity of the way that these statistics are calculated.
Although the increase in the unemployment rate will be politically difficult for the president, overall this is a good report and we should rejoice in it. A few caveats should be observed. First, in order to bring all of the people who’ve lost their jobs over the last couple of years back into the labor force we’ll need to see monthly increases at this level over a period of a number of years. That will be a good trick considering the number of jobs in government and healthcare, largely supported by tax dollars, that this report represents.
Second, I’d be interested in seeing a more detailed breakdown in the manufacturing jobs that were added. If a substantial fraction of them are in the automobile industry, it may be difficult to maintain that level of growth.
Third, I find the loss of jobs in messenger and courier services troubling, suggesting a reduction in economic activity.
Finally, I’d be interested in how many of the jobs that have been added are related to increased exports. If it’s a sizeable portion it might be difficult to sustain that as the dollar strengthens due to worries over how the debt crises in a number of European countries will affect the Euro.
Indeed, if real, we should rejoice. But I’m seeing criticism that 66,000 were (temporary) census jobs, and abo0t 190,000 are business birth/death rate related. Quite frankly, I’m not sure how I feel about the whole birth/death rate adjustment.
In any event, and as a follow on to the ascerbic exchange with Michael Reynolds a couple weeks ago (I just love it), I’ve been reading more and more about the point I raised, that a drawdown in savings and “freed up” money from mortgage defaults are important drivers of current spending. This simply is not sustainable. And if Portugal etc follow Greece, the confidence in equities that may be driving current spending trends could go splat.
Perhaps we can see a glimmer of light, a beautiful meadow in the distance, but we are not out of these woods yet. Tax increase anyone?
Indeed, Drew, I’ve found the recent reports that retail sales have returned to their 2007 levels and savings is dropping both puzzling and disturbing. Without a major increase in employment that sounds like a great deal of sizzle without much steak.
Texas Roadhouse vs Mortons’
It’s not just counter intuitive, it’s insane they way they are figuring. It’s starting to feel like a giant con.
Wonder what the weakened Euro will probably mean in re: to a possible Chinese currency adjustment.
Steve