The scales have fallen from John Judis’s eyes, as his essay at the New Republic illustrates:
If you take the percentage of Americans that the U.S. census defines as “minorities†and project their past voting habits into the next decade and beyond, you’ll come up with a very sunny version of the Democrats’ prospects. There are only two problems with this line of thinking, but they’re pretty big ones. For starters, the census prediction of a “majority-minority†America—slated to arrive in 2044—is deeply flawed. And so is the notion that ethnic minorities will always and forever continue to back Democrats in Obama-like numbers.
The U.S. census makes a critical assumption that undermines its predictions of a majority-nonwhite country. It projects that the same percentage of people who currently identify themselves as “Latino†or “Asian†will continue to claim those identities in future generations. In reality, that’s highly unlikely. History shows that as ethnic groups assimilate into American culture, they increasingly identify themselves as “white.â€
which is precisely the point I made back in 2002 when his book first came out.
The thesis is so flawed it’s hard to know where to start. “Whiteness” is malleable. In 1840 my Irish ancestors were not seen as white. Now they would be. As recently as 1920 my wife’s Italian ancestors along with the Jews and many others who had come here were not seen as white. Now they are except by the .02% of the population who will never see anyone who is not a white Anglo-Saxon Protestant as white.
Today the majority of Mexican-Americans are in fact Mexican citizens. Under the Mexican nationality law people born in Mexico or the foreign-born children of Mexican citizens born in Mexico are Mexican citizens. In 50 years (maybe sooner) the majority of Mexican-Americans won’t be Mexican citizens.
But the notion that blacks, Hispanics, and Asians have more interests in common with each other than they do with the balance of the population is itself fundamentally flawed, a product of ignorance. Tell it to the young black man whose main job competition comes from Hispanics. Or the Asian shopkeeper who’s just had a brick thrown through his window by a black or Hispanic neighborhood kid.
The actual consequences as opposed to the imagined consequences of the racial spoils system sort of identity politics is that various racial minorities will squabble over the scraps that fall from the table while the white elite remains firmly in control of the table. If you don’t believe that’s the case, look at the number and roles of blacks and Hispanics in the Congressional Democratic caucus.
He continues to overestimate the proportion of the population who are progressives but that’s another question. IMO it’s more like 15% of the population than 51% but if you torture the definition of “progressive” long enough it will submit. Jacksonians, white, black, or other are the most hidebound of conservatives but they see nothing in conflict between that and taking a government handout.
My mother’s grandparents came from Czechoslovakia. Her Swedish mother-in-law called her a “darkie”, and didn’t like her son marrying out of his race. One generation removed from Sweden, he didn’t see things her way. ONE generation!
The Democrats have essentially had a majority of voters in this country since at least 2000. The overall problem is popularity. Not even with voting, but just with American life. The basic American normality of Democrats like Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is part of the reason we have a destitute brain virus victim like Trump.
But the notion that blacks, Hispanics, and Asians have more interests in common with each other than they do with the balance of the population is itself fundamentally flawed, a product of ignorance. Tell it to the young black man whose main job competition comes from Hispanics. Or the Asian shopkeeper who’s just had a brick thrown through his window by a black or Hispanic neighborhood kid.
It’s a free country. Why don’t you go to a Black Lives Matter rally and explain this to a young black man? See what he says in return. I would be very surprised to find whiteness transforming blacks or hispanics into good Southie Irish racists.
My father’s father’s mother, born in the United States, objected to one of her sons marrying the woman whom he married after his mother’s death on the grounds that she was of French and Irish ancestry, i.e. not of German descent.
Lumping all Americans of European descent into a single category has only made sense for a couple of generations. I believe the same will hold true of Hispanics.
It’s not a belief; there are studies showing that Hispanics “disappear” in a few generations if successful. It was the reason why there were studies showing Hispanics after a few generations had lower incomes and hadn’t become full English speakers, that was the less successful group.
Hispanic as an ethnicity, not a race. So there are hispanics of different races. Over time, hispanics can and do stop self-identifying themselves as hispanic and switch to racial or other identities.