Today marks a milestone in Iraq. During the entire month of July 2008 U. S. forces experienced 13 fatalities. Five of the deaths were in combat, eight were not in combat. That’s the lowest number of casualties in any July since the 2003 invasion. It’s the lowest number of casualties in any month since the 2003 invasion and it follows months of dramatically lower casualties.
I’m not diminishing the casualties in any way. I think that each and every loss is a tragedy. But to place the casualties in perspective according to the DoD mortality statistics our military has roughly 75 casualties per hundred thousand stationed stateside. For a force the size of the one we have in Iraq we would expect roughly 110 fatalities or just under 10 per month. The military is a dangerous job but Iraq is apparently reaching the point where our forces there are in little more danger than in any non-combat operation.
Iraqi civilian and security force fatalities are a quarter what they were last month at this time and a third what they were the previous year.
I’m not one of those who think that “the surge” succeeded. Or failed for that matter. I don’t give a good gosh darn whether it failed or succeeded. I think that “the surge” is one of several factors that have contributed to the situation as it is now and I have no idea how significant a factor it was but even the stingiest reckoning would mean that hundreds of U. S. soldiers are alive who otherwise would have died and thousands of Iraqis who otherwise would have died are alive. That’s enough for me.
In coming months there will be increasing pressure for American soldiers to leave Iraq and the conditions there suggest that some will leave Iraq. Some already have—the force there is already reduced from its peak surge size.
Don’t expect a peace dividend. Anyone who tells you there will be one is either a child, a fool, or a demagogue.
The peace dividend comes when the master of the art of peace declares war on “culture”…big dividends in smelltheroses.com….pelodom.