Midterm 2014 Previews

Larry Sabato handicaps the 2014 midterm elections:

At this early stage, the combination of these three factors [ed. i.e. the president’s declining approval rating, the economy, and the electoral playing field] suggests a good election year for the GOP. The president is a Democrat and his approval is weak. The economy may be improving, based on GDP growth (4.1 percent in the third quarter), but voters still don’t believe their personal economy, at least, has picked up much. Instead, the major national issue of the moment is Obamacare, which at this point is a loser for Democrats. The structure of the election in the House and Senate also bends in the GOP direction.

I continue to think that the greatest likelihood is that the Republicans will hold the House and gain no more than five seats in the Senate, narrowly failing to take control of that house.

9 comments… add one
  • Red Barchetta Link

    This really isn’t a handicapping post. I’ve noted before, and will again, the published GDP number is bogus, being driven by inventory build. Excess inventory build is the stuff of recession. This isn’t political, just a fact.

    If someone wants to make the case for inventory sell through, please do. By the way, just so you folks know, to coin a phrase, out of naked self interest, I’d like that to be the case – politics be damned – I own 5 companies. Would sure like a good economy.

    Don’t think so………

  • ... Link

    I’ve got a prediction that’s a sure winner: crooks owned by big corporations, the remains of big labor, trial lawywers and doctors will win. The rich will celebrate as they continue to own the process.

  • ... Link

    Also? The sun will rise in the East tomorrow.

  • Andy Link


    When will you run? I would actually consider moving to Illinois to vote for you.

  • Andy Link

    Oh and Ice, why not try a radical change and get involved in politics?

  • ... Link

    Andy, who am I supposed to work for? I’m in totally gerrymandered districts that will only vote Democratic, or the statewide elections. Which means getting choices like this year’s gubernatorial race between Scott and Crist. Ugh. And the last meaningful third party choice was a one-off billionaire’s folly. I really think it is completely hopeless, politically speaking. This is post Antonine Rome at this point.

  • I’d make a lousy candidate. I don’t have any money. My name doesn’t have “ballot appeal” (at least not here). I don’t have the patience or attitude to court idiots. My biography isn’t the sort that appeals to voters hereabouts. I’m not a former cop, firefighter, or teacher.

  • ... Link

    And Schuler’s comment is just another example of why the system, as constituted, can’t be salvaged. We have a sclerotic political class that can’t be displaced, and that has also forgotten how to actually get things done. (See the Obama Administration’s complete inability to set up a website do basically do something we already know how to do, and over a period of time in which a prior political class managed to win a World War.)

    The political-political complex has raised the barriers to entry to incredible heights.

  • jan Link

    VA special election: republican trails by 10 votes in a big democratic district, which Obama won easily by 15 pts in 2012. Oh yes, the democratic incumbent has a bare-bones lead to a relatively unknown republican challenger.

    Outlier or omen…..?

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