In anticipation of the president’s announcement this evening which all are assuming will be some sort of executive legalization program, I should probably hang up my pundit’s spurs if I didn’t do some speculating on what’s going to happen. Since I don’t have any idea of what the president will actually announce, I’ll remark on what the responses should be instead.
If there’s any reasonable argument that the president is acting under his constitutional authority (“necessary and proper” comes to mind), the Republicans (and the American people, a majority of whom oppose any mass legalization plan) will just need to suck it up. Or pass a law that prohibits the president from acting as he did, from enforcing his plan or whatever.
“Reasonable argument” is a pretty broad standard but I haven’t seen many reasonable arguments in support of the president’s position. “All the other kids do it” is not a reasonable argument but that’s the argument I’m seeing most frequently made. “You can’t ignore 20 million people” and an appeal to emotion aren’t reasonable arguments, either.
If there is no reasonable argument that the president has acted under his constitutional authority, I think the first recourse should be seeking relief from the courts in the form of an injunction. If the Court takes sides by refusing to take sides, I have little doubt that the Republican House will impeach the president.
Don’t assume that the Democrats in the Senate will present a united front in support of the president. He isn’t running for any elections but they are. It would be the case of an unpopular president taking an unpopular course of action in support of people who don’t vote.
On the other hand if the president’s announcement tonight is that he’s not going to do anything, we’ll see demonstrations in other places than Ferguson.
1) This will probably be the wrong thing to do if we are interested in principles, as noted above.
2)If it is legal, it will still be challenged.
3) It is temporary. It can be overturned by the next president.
4) It is certainly political. The GOP could have headed this off by passing immigration reform. They know that they cannot because of the House. GOP Congressmen who vote for reform will lose primaries. (Unless it is just building a border fence.) If the GOP wins the 2016 POTUS election, as seems likely, they will probably overturn this. By doing so thousands or millions of people who thought they were safe will again be at risk. Their legal relatives will be pissed. What they will see is reform overturned and the GOP offering no alternative. Should lock in the Hispanic vote for a while.
Steve
Why believe what the President does tonight will be temporary? At the very least those he legalized and all their relatives will be legalized forever. The courts will simply not allow anything else, and I doubt any future mythical Republican President would do squat about it. Who was the last Republican nominee who wasn’t in favor of giving illegals citizenship? Goldwater?
But given thelikelihood of a Republican President in 2017 is about 5% at best, that becomes an even more specious argument.
The Republicans will not impeach over this, though they probably should. The leadership and the major donors at the least want amnesty & open borders, so they”ve no reason to go to the mattresses over this. Instead they’ll squawk a lot, raise money off it, and try to use it to shore up shaky seats in 2016. And secretly Eiffel Tower behind closed doors as they screw the American worker in general & their voting base in particular.
The People, such as they are, will be opposed. But Obama’s timing shows that the People have limited say over anything.
Besides, it’s going to get swamped by other news. On CNN mobile at the moment, the top story is about a shooting at FSU, which is a local story, not a national one.
Then a story on Obama’s immigration plans.
The next important bit of news is to tell us that someone fairly famous died shockingly at the age of 83.
Then a story about a old rock singer breaking an arm.
Then TWO stories on allegations from decades ago against an entertainer who’s popularity peaked 30 years ago.
Wow. Just wow. Thank God the Republic has such hard hitting news organizations keeping us informed of the important matters of the day.
The next section is the “Featured” section. Let’s see what in depth coverage I get here:
* Celebs you didn’t know were religious
* What a shot! 39 amazing sports photos
* 5 types of people you should unfriend [presumably those who name themselves after notorious mob murder weapons is on the list]
* 15 of the world’s most spectacular fountains
* Photos: Wintry weather across the U.S.
Yep, definitely working hard to inform the public so that it can make informed decisions with which to guide and influence its elected representatives.
ADDED: And of course, Ferguson is going to swamp everything tomorrow, as everyone gears up for the inevitable riots. Cold weather riots are a rarity, too, so this could truly be newsworthy!
Looking at CNN today, in its various TV and web versions, must make Ted Turned weep.
And one more prediction before I go back to my house chores:
The unexpected arrival of winter will be used to excuse any and all bad economic data in coming months.
Steve,
A majority of republicans want immigration reform, The polls show that. However, they primarily want it after border safeguards have been legitimately put in place, rather than simply relying on legislative lip service. People have seen how that’s worked out as current immigration laws on the books are either politically distorted or not enforced at all. Boehner, in particular has advocated for immigration reform. But, he has to work with a diverse caucus, who doesn’t trust this president’s word at all. So, how is this latest unilateral EO going to augment trust, making it easier to have some kind of bipartisan immigration reform passed in the near future? A host of republicans in the Senate have also called for reform, such as Graham, Corker, Rubio. But, they are now frustrated, angry with how he is applying menacing force, rather than diplomatically working with them, to devise another, long-term kind of immigration strategy.
Furthermore, there are so many ambiguities surrounding immigration statistics. For instance, people constantly talk about Obama’s high deportation stats. But, these are simply false! Such deportation stats mainly represent illegals turned away at the border, not those apprehended here illegally, interiorly processed and then sent back. Consequently, genuine figures show deportation numbers demonstrably better under the preceding administration rather than under the Obama administration. Even Jah Johnson has admitted that the much hyped 2 million number, frequently quoted, has more than half that number being caught at the border by ICE and tuned back. Of course, now even ICE is hamstrung by the WH who discourages said proactive actions.
How then can you have honest immigration reform, one that is not belabored by drama and controversy when you lie about figures, use twisted, convoluted words to make your case, say one thing and do another, and then use threats as your tool for passage?
It’s just wrong…..!
jan- The Senate did pass reform. With some of the people you named. No go in the House. Aint happening, no way. The only thing they want is border fences. They found the time to repeal Obamacare a million times. They could have passed an immigration reform bill if they wanted. They still could. They won’t. The public might want it, but it is the far right that votes in primaries.
“Consequently, genuine figures show deportation numbers demonstrably better under the preceding administration rather than under the Obama administration. ”
Yet the total number of illegals in the country has actually dropped. It constantly increased under prior admins.
“How then can you have honest immigration reform”
Pass a bill. It is pretty darn easy. Stop making excuses. You control the House. Pass your own version and send it back to the Senate and reconcile the two bills just like every other law.
Look, I thin what Obama is doing is wrong in many ways. That said, I really have no sympathy for GOP whining. Go out and pass some actual reform. Actually address the issue and try to govern.
Steve
How do you know it dropped, Steve? It’s not exactly well documented, is it.
But I’ll grant that it at least flatlined for a stretch. Because the economy was in the toilet, and has largely remained there. Is that where you want to hang your hat?
Not to mention that what we’ve seen in the last year are unaccompanied minors making the journey in record numbers. You really think adults aren’t coming in record numbers, too?
The Senate did pass reform. With some of the people you named.
Steve, and these same people listed are now withdrawing their suppport for that bill. Rubio specifically said he would no longer vote for it. Others have a bad taste in their mouth dealing with the process this president is now taking. Basically, it’s not the ends, of immigration reform, that people dispute but the means applied.
I’m amazed that this country has now veered off into such a distructive policy path — one that people like you rationalize as being somehow constructive, in the bigger picture of how one administration gets through tough conflicts with their opponents.
BTW, I don’t know how many here have been involved in sponsoring immigrants in this country to attain their citizenship, legally. My husband and I have done this — something that has taken 13 years from beginning to end. In fact one of the people we sponsored left yesterday, with his proper papers in hand, in order to visit his family in Mexico. We gave him money to do this, along with our well wishes — but all he had to do now was wait for Obama to pass this EO. What a farce, to have gone though years of time, energy, money to have this happen via political whim.
“How do you know it dropped, Steve? It’s not exactly well documented, is it.”
Nope, but as long as they use a consistent method it tells us trends, even if the exact number is suspect. Also, the number of kids coming dropped precipitously. Not in the news anymore. The world was going to end. Then it didn’t. Same with Ebola. Methinks the GOP needs a copy of Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
Steve