For some time now I’ve been questioning the view that we’re in the midst of a major political realignment. The respected Larry Sabato agrees and adds heft and substance to my intuition:
First, though most Americans are not happy with the country’s condition, the level of discontent is not extraordinary compared with other recent election years. Consider 1968 (Vietnam), 1974 (Watergate), 1980 (U.S. hostages in Iran), 1982 and 1992 (recession), 1994 (Bill Clinton’s woes) and 2006 and 2008 (George W. Bush fatigue).
Second, the number of congressional incumbents facing serious primary challenges is not exceptionally high, and incumbent defeats have more likely been the result of special circumstances.
Third, there is little relationship between the results of congressional primaries and the results in November. Primary losses for some incumbents do not predict general election losses for others.
Our political system may, indeed, be one of permanent, ongoing revolution but it’s slow motion revolution. Nowadays high Congressional turnover means 85% of incumbents are returned to office rather than 95%. Anybody who expects a truly major shift after the November elections is likely to be bitterly disappointed.
