Harrison Schramm’s latest post at RealClearDefense certainly provides some food for thought. What if we take Chinese President Xi at his word?
Leaders of both China and the United States[i] have opined about the possibility of a Cross (Taiwan) Strait invasion in early 2027. While there are historical examples of countries having deadlines internally (famously, Hitler’s four year plan for Germany[ii]), having both sides of a potential conflict agree – at least in rhetoric – when the war should start is novel.
In this piece, we explore what happens when we take both President Xi and his prospective opponents at their word; that a cross-straits invasion of Taiwan will begin approximately 750 days from press time; Friday, 1 January 2027. Specifically, we would like to explore two issues:
- If we really believe this war is upon us on this timescale, what should we do, and what are the risks of being wrong?
- If China really believes that, what would they do that we could observe to know they are serious? What would be the risks to believing them?
As should be clear I think we should take the words of leaders like Xi Jinping at face value. What if?
Let’s just put it in a single sentence. The United States is not prepared for a war with China militarily, economically, or morally.
Like Ukraine, a US/China war over Taiwan would be a totally free choice of the US. All the provocations are coming from us. We have no interests, important or minor, in Taiwan, and Nixon settled the issue more than 50 years ago. Taiwan is an issue only because our leaders are insane.
Larry Johnson is wondering whether the denizens of the Biden White House are trying to start a war with Russia in order to prevent the inauguration of Trump. What ought to be risible is now a possibility.
PS. I think we can safely assume that Schramm is lying about the alleged statements by Xi.