The advice that Elizabeth Braw offers Ukraine in this piece at Foreign Policy strikes me as a bit lopsided. After describing Finland’s victory in the Winter War of 1939 she remarks:
Indeed, in the Winter War, the Finns demonstrated to the rest of the world that a small and militarily inferior country can thwart the ambitions of a large and militarily superior one. That demonstration should give Ukrainians courage as they, too, face the prospect of a winter war.
I think the emphasis should be on the preceding passage:
To be sure, throughout the Cold War, Finland was forced to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with the Soviet Union, one known to most of the world as Finlandization. Unlike its likewise neutral neighbor Sweden, Finland was not allowed to maintain auxiliary defense organizations, and its foreign policy was forced to pay more attention to Moscow’s will than Sweden or other Western European countries did.
Let me provide a little of the context missing from Ms. Braw’s article.
Finland was ceded to Russia as a duchy when Sweden lost its 1808-1809 war against Russia. It remained part of Russia for about a century. It never had a large population of ethnic Russians and the main interest the Russians had in it was as a buffer.
Ukraine in contrast has a large population of ethnic Russians, is itself almost entirely Slavic in population, and has been a part of Russia since the 18th century (arguably since the 17th century). It has only been “independent” since the 1950s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union Ukraine had a succession of freely-elected pro-Russian administrations. It wasn’t until after the coup a decade ago that an anti-Russian administration came to power in the Ukraine.
Whether that coup was instigated by Westerners is hotly debated. I think that the only obviously true thing is that the Russians couldn’t tolerate losing their Crimean port which is why they invaded and have occupied it ever since.
I think that Finlandization is the right course for Ukraine but what I mean by that is being cautious and wary of Russia which is staunchly opposed by Ukrainian nationalists. Also, although I understand Russia’s interests in Ukraine I have no idea what the U. S. interest in the country is other than poking a stick in the collective Russian eye.
Finlandization is certainly preferable to war, especially to the Ukrainians, who would suffer the most. Russia’s recently proposed “treaties” are a war warning, if not an actual ultimatum.
American foreign policy has become appallingly aggressive and belligerent. It is doubly unfortunate in that our aggression is aimed at states that can really hurt us and our allies. Russian, China, and even Iran all have the ability to wreak havoc in their near abroad.