At Brussels Signal Ralph Schoellhammer argues that Americans are being misled into thinking that Arabs in the Middle East support Hamas when the reality is that they actually support Israel because they recognize that Iran, for which Hamas is a proxy, is the greater danger:
If one views the Arab-Israeli conflict through the ongoing campus protests at US universities, one could easily get the impression that Israel might be winning militarily, but it is losing the battle for global public opinion. However, anyone who has the slightest understanding of the Middle East knows that the language spoken there is one of power, not popularity.
Contrary to popular belief, the fate of Palestine and its people is not the number one issue for most Arab States, and despite the rhetoric of their propaganda there is a growing willingness to find a lasting arrangement with the state of Israel.
This has been clear since the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 normalizing relations between Israel on side and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on the other. A few months later, Sudan and Morocco joined the accords, marking what has been a tectonic shift in the region – and if it would not have been for the deep-seated prejudice against Donald Trump in the media, should have secured the US President a Nobel Peace Prize.
While I think he has a point I don’t think he’s got it quite right. I think there is a broad gap between popular opinion among Arabs in the Middle East, sometimes referred as the “Arab street”, and the views of the leaders of Arab countries in the Middle East. I think that Mr. Schellhammer interprets the views of the Middle Eastern leaders correctly:
Certainly, public opinion in Saudi Arabia and other places remains staunchly anti-Israel, as recent polling has shown: “Only 14% of respondents agreed to allow Israeli civilian airplanes to fly over Saudi Arabia, and just 13% would permit Israeli sports teams to participate in events in Saudi Arabia, and a mere 7% would welcome Israel’s prime minister to an international conference in Saudi Arabia.”
These views notwithstanding, the reform oriented Arab leaders from Jordan to Saudi Arabia are well aware that the potential peace dividend that could come from the combination of Arab capital and Israeli high tech could be a key element in their modernization plans, and they refuse to make everything contingent on the question of Palestinian statehood.
There is a reason for this and it is not rooted in economic interest as the author avers but in the threat that Islamist radicals pose to the leaderships of Arab countries. Consequently, the basic question is less one of what Arabs believe but of whether the leaders of authoritarian Arab countries will remain in control.
If they do you can expect some modernization of Arab countries in the Middle East somewhat along Chinese lines. If they don’t I suspect we will see increased support for Islamist radicals like Hamas and Hezbollah at the expense all else.
I think the support of Hamas and Hezbollah (two very different groups) runs very high among Arabs, and I doubt there is much support among them for their own governments. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, in particular, ran a coup to remove Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi. who was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is also an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is why el-Sisi doesn’t want any Palestinians in Egypt.
It is wrong to say Israel is winning. They have not defeated Hamas, which is still running ambushes and actively resisting. More importantly, the overt genocide and wanton destruction of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure has thoroughly delegitimized Israel and the IDF. That is a massive defeat.
The US and NATO have also been defeated by the Houthis, who have successfully closed the Red Sea to ships headed to and from Israel and any American or UK ships. Egypt has suffered a massive loss in transit revenues for the Suez Canal, over 40% reduction in some estimates.
Our Ruling Caste has a persistent inability to understand war, which is odd considering how many they have started and lost. So, while on the losing side in two ongoing wars, Blinken goes to China and threatens them with sanctions and economic war. And the cherry on that particular sundae is the presence of US troops on one of Taiwan’s offshore islands.
“At the expense of all else”
A vague image of angry men in tablecloth headscarves has taken the place of Che Guevara among Western celebrities, students, and now politicians as President of the USA Joe Biden is exploring a plan to open up immigration to Palestinians.
Limited at first but now that they’ve achieved heroic status in America the calls to throw open the doors will grow louder.
The Saudi’s will have peace in their streets, we in the West are unfortunately foolish as we don’t even know who we are or concede our own right to exist.
We will have no peace, the good old days aren’t coming back, Muslims cannot be assimilated like the Irish Catholics.
At one time people thought about their own children and their future, Americans consider children as unwanted fetuses with a deadly carbon footprint.
Not so South Americans, Middle Easterners, Haitians, Africans, victims all of our Colonialists past deserving of retribution.
Consider some serious protection.
I dont think most Americans think about or care much about what Arab countries think about Israel. For those paying attention it’s pretty clear that no one in the Arab likes the Palestinians and most of them dont like Iran.
I guess in our sports obsessed country we will concentrate on winning. Is Israel winning? Most Americans dont know and dont care. Besides, it’s not really a simple question. Are they winning the fighting war? Sure. Will they ultimately win? Define win. If it means killing all of Hamas, not likely. If it means killing a lot fo Palestinians for revenge and leave the place close to uninhabitable they are already there. Next, are they winning on the world stage? I would think not. They started with a huge amount of sympathy after Hamas brutally killed, raped, tortured and kidnapped a lot of people.
However, I think they have lost a lot of that. They blockaded food and med supplies, reluctantly giving in to allow minimal aid, then having accidents that harmed those bringing in aid. Accidents that suggest an incredible level of incompetence, or they arent actually trying very hard to kill only the bad guys at least some of the time. It also doesnt help that they dont offer an end game and that they keep in power the man who, after Hamas, is most responsible for the 10/7 attack. Certainly looks like their goal is take over the entire West Bank and make people leave Gaza since it wont be a fit place to live.
Steve