And in his Washington Post column David Ignatius sounds nervous about China’s decision to double the size of its nuclear arsenal:
Why is China moving so quickly to jettison its old doctrine of a “limited deterrent†and double its nuclear forces? U.S. analysts aren’t sure, but some judge that the Chinese may want to make any U.S. effort to defend Taiwan militarily exceptionally costly. Beijing wants a low-cost walkover in Taipei, not a bloody assault.
“The last thing on China’s mind is a D-Day style invasion†of Taiwan, contends Christopher Johnson in an interview. He’s a former top CIA China analyst who’s now the chief executive of China Strategies Group, a political risk consulting firm. He notes that China has halved its number of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan but boosted deployments of missiles for striking U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.
China’s accelerating nuclear program vexes American analysts. During the Cold War, the United States and Russia developed a language for thinking about nuclear weapons and deterrence. Leaders of both countries understood the horrors of nuclear war and sought predictability and stability in nuclear policy. China lacks such a vocabulary for thinking about the unthinkable.
I can offer a host of reasons China is changing its policy including status and its understanding that an armed conflict with many of its prospective adversaries including the U. S., Russia, and India would likely involve a nuclear exchange.
Keep in mind that David Ignatius is above all else a purveyor of the prevailing wisdom in Washington, DC. Is Mr. Ignatius experiencing buyer’s remorse?
I think it’s multifactorial and more complicated than Ignatius suggests. To wit:
– Conventional and nuclear asymmetry. Technological advances mean that China’s current arsenal isn’t as effective as it once was. China is accounting for US precision strike and growing BMD capabilities.
– China’s geostratic position and goals have changed substantially. The likelihood of some kind of conflict has increased, therefore the utility of nuclear deterrance has also increased.
– Relatedly, as you note, there are other players – India and Russia in particular.
– Nuke are expensive – China is now a rich country and can afford more.