The RealClearPolitics average of polls suggests that the barrage of criticism being leveled at Trump is not having the presumably desired effect. His approval rating is 43.7% but, significantly, his disapproval rating is 51.1%. That the lowest since April 2017 and the difference between the two is just 7.4 points, the smallest gap since March of 2017.
Remember my remark about the situation being like the old wisecrack about mud-wrestling with a pig? You get dirty and the pig likes it. It fits.
Doesn’t help to have an opposition that’s a cross between the Clinton 90s and The Daily Show, thinking it can snark and shame its way to victory.
Maybe, @Icepick was not completely wrong after all, and maybe, he was more right than wrong. It appears that there are a lot of @Icepicks, and they do not all look like him.
Is it possible the effect is NOT desirable?
There’s a lot riding on that riding approval score.
Perhaps the craziest thing this year is how many disparate groups, including Congressional Democrats, the governments of Mexico, Canada, EU, China are all putting it all “in” that the Congressional elections in Nov will be a rebuke to Trump.
The bet continues to look like more likely to pay off then not, but the chances of a different outcome are pretty significant. Negotiating with a bully is not fun; but maybe its a better deal while no one knows what voters think then to know for sure… after all, agreements are always subject to revision.
@CuriousOnlooker, Trump will not, can not be rebuked. Nothing ever reflects poorly on him and he’s already lowering expectations by talking about how the President’s party historically loses seats in the first midterm. And in any event, when a President finds his legislative agenda circumscribed by a hostile or ineffective Congress, that’s when he usually becomes more active in foreign affairs; it’s where he has the freest reign.
Trump can be rebuked.
For example on trade, Trump is using powers delegated by Congress, for example, if the Nov elections elects waves of free trade Democrats/Republicans, I could easily see those tariffs be annulled or limited by Congress — Trump gets a wave in the midwest in Nov, suddenly those auto-tariffs maybe be the minimum policy.
He has domestic priorities in terms of immigration too.
A president facing a hostile Congress actually has very little power; even in the foreign sphere, other countries take note of the domestic situation when working with a President.
CI. Not so sure. Suppose Trump takes 90% of the GOP vote, loses 90% of the Dems, balancing out, but only takes 30% of the independent votes so he loses Congress. He still has his base which is all he cares about. I don’t see this as a wave election. I don’t see him changing at all.
Steve
“Trump . . . can not be rebuked” was largely tongue-in-cheek. Sharks keep moving, they don’t engage in self-reflection.
But I’m curious, in the 2010 midterms, Obama’s party lost an historic 63 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. Was that a rebuke? And if so, how did it impact his foreign policy prerogatives? A strong point against is that he was able to make the Iranian deal over bipartisan opposition.
(As a personal point of reference, my current prediction is the Republicans lose 34 seats in the House and pick-up two seats in the Senate, which would be pretty average)