I wanted to follow up the two posts I wrote earlier this morning, “It’s the Jobs, Stupid” and “It’s the Income, Stupid”, with some policy prescriptions.
I don’t think we have just one problem. I think we have lots of problems. Lack of income growth is a problem. Lack of job growth is a problem. The kinds of jobs that are being created is a problem and relates the other two to each other.
I’m not hostile to the idea of a universal basic income but I continue to think it’s premature. There are lots of other, less drastic and risky things we should try first. We should stop propping up big companies or, at the very least, charge them for the service. If we can’t curb the subsidies we’re paying to the healthcare and education sectors, we should find some other, cheaper way to provide their services. We can’t afford healthcare or education sectors with decreasing marginal productivity and costs that grow at a multiple of the costs outside their sectors.
We should reduce immigration into the United States. We don’t need to cut if off entirely but we need to reduce it. We have more immigrants in the United States right now than at any time since 1910 when our economic climate was significantly different than it is now, the social fabric is beginning to show signs of wear, and the solution that was adopted in 1910 was pretty draconian.
We should reduce occupational licensing.
We should subsidize wages rather than providing a universal basic income, at least at this point in time.
That’s enough impossible suggestions for one post.
For the first time since the measurement of small businesses coming and going, there are more businesses going south than are being created. Hillary Clinton claims this has nothing to do with over-regulation. However, I think she’s dead wrong.
Consequently, I would add to your reasonable list of “corrections” that government relaxes some of those regulations, becoming more “business friendly” in order to encourage smaller would-be entrepreneurs to build businesses. One piece of legislation that has been particularly harsh on small business are the intrinsic perimeters set by Obamacare, which have severely impacted full time employment, as well as the fiscal ability to easily expand the number of employees (jobs) within a smaller company.
I think regulation is a factor but it’s only one of many. Other factors I’d include are
– over-investment in healthcare and education. That takes any number of forms including people taking their raises in the form of increased company-covered healthcare insurance premiums
– that reduces consumption of other goods, at least on a relative basis
– too many big companies
jan- Obamacare does not affect true small companies. If anything, it makes it possible for their employees to get care. If you have real data showing that it has affected full time work “severely”, please share, and not just speculation that it might hurt. As we have noted many times here, true small start ups are funded by the workers themselves, family and friends. They can’t afford it anymore.
However, on the regulation front, regs at the state level are pretty difficult sometimes. We are moving into New Jersey and they make things difficult.
Steve
“That’s enough impossible suggestions for one post.”
Well now that’s really the core, isn’t it? At the most general level the environment has changed and we haven’t adapted. So one might reasonably cite the global competitive landscape in 1955 vs 1985 vs 2015, regulation, a massive transfer of economic activity from private to the public sector, disincentives, a breakdown in the perceived benefits of immigration and imports, subsidized or malinvestment in narrow sectors, reduced appetite for risk taking etc etc.
I didn’t vote for Trump today, but the Everyman understanding by some that these issues have broken toward the unfavorable drives the Trump phenomenon and desire to lash out and break stuff. And those who may (may) have better understanding are, as a practical matter, left wringing their hands or peddling their theories on internet sites. But good luck with that.
“Impossible suggestions” of course just means politically impossible. The electorate has up to now shown no willingness, and perhaps no capability, to do anything but elect the next politician offering more of the same. Momentum and self interest in certain aspects of the status quo. Maybe the Trump phenomenon will shake some things loose. I call him a goon, but the truth is I doubt he could really do more damage than the ruling class has done, and will no doubt continue to do.
In other news, Hillary just destroyed Bernie in Florida. He did win a small majority with “White Men” but lost all other simple race+gender combinations. He absolutely got destroyed with blacks and “Latinos”. Turns out the brothers & sisters don’t like Jews from Whitopia. Browns don’t seem to like them much better. Who knew?!
Trump did about as well with “Latinos” as Sanders did 27% for Trump vs 28 % for Sanders), and that was running against two Cubans, one of whom was a favored son. Using the exit poll data plus the vote totals, it looks like Trump actually got about 11,000 more Hispanic votes than Sanders did.
And there were over 600,000 more Republican ballots cast than Democratic ballots. Here in Orange County they petitioned the governor to keep the polls open an hour longer but got turned down. They were running out of ballots at a few dozen precincts, on both the Dem and Rep side in at least one station.
Other oddities: Trump won every county except Miami-Dade, Rubio’s home turf. Trump won pretty much every Demographic category unless it contained Hispanics, so Trump’s support is along a broader base than advertised. Trump’s support across education categories was fairly consistent until getting to Post-Graduate, in which his numbers dropped by ten points to 36%. He had consistent support among income groups near 50%, and polled almost as well with independents as with Republicans.
I don’t THINK these numbers collectively bode well for Clinton in November, but this year is insane, and old ideas just don’t matter. Who the Hell knows what will happen in November, or even who will be on the ballots?
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FWIW, the Democratic Primary saw about 40,000 FEWER ballots cast than in the hotly contested primary (which Hillary won) in 2008 over Obama & Edwards. Sanders is basically winning the old Dixiecrat type of counties that Edwards won in 2008: counties with names like Dixie & Calhoun, and places that house Death Row inmates. Funny!
(Rubio is this year’s John Edwards: A box of hair that people fell in love with. The difference is that Edwards at least had some accomplishments, however dubious, in the private sector. Also, Rubio is likely to be a one-term Senator. He’s probaably not done with politics, as it’s all he’s done, but I don’t know that he’ll get elected to anything again.)
The Republicans had a hot primary in 2008 as well, which McCain won over Romney & Giuliani. The primary today had almost 680,000 MORE votes cast than the one in 2008.
Like I said, I don’t think this bodes well for Hillary, but I’m not sure the Dem primary was all that eagerly anticipated down here (other than by Debbi Wasserman-Schultz) so that may have depressed votes. I’d still think that with Sanders in that it would have drawn interest.
But like I also said, the rules don’t seem to apply this year, so who the fuck knows what’s going to happen?
I call him a goon, but the truth is I doubt he could really do more damage than the ruling class has done, and will no doubt continue to do.
I don’t know that ‘goon’ is the correct word, but I’ll accept it for argument’s sake. The main reason to vote for Trump, at this point, is to let the rest of the ruling class know that they need to get their act together, or they’re going to get even worse shoved down their craws next time.
Gotta say I love how Cook County keeps returning “No Data Available” on the CNN site. Early on other counties would report zero votes with zero percent reporting, but Cook County stood fast to “No Data Available”, and they’re holding onto that even now. Exactly how long does it take for dead people to vote?
Wow, Trump is looking at four wins and a second place in Ohio. Worst cast three wins and two seconds, one by a nose. (Although both loses would be in winner take all states, I believe, though I’m not certain about Missouri, where with almost all votes counted Trump leads by a mere 2,450.) Rubio is looking at one second place and four fourth place results. Tonight would have been bad for him if he HAD won Florida.
It turns out Rubio’s big win tonight was in Ohio, where he got a scant 2.3% of the vote. He told his supporters to vote for Kasich, in a strategic decision to make certain that neither Trump nor Cruz got Ohio’s 66 delegates. (Ohio is a winner take all state.)
One more oddity, and then I’m going to eat ice cream and watch Hill Street Blues or The Bridge on the River Kwai:
In Alachua County, whose only claim to fame is being the home of the mammoth University of Florida, Hillary won by a scant 143 votes out of 35,323 cast. The professors beat the students, but just barely!
One more thing I just noticed. It looks like Florida, Missouri, and Ohio are all burning much hotter (i.e., much higher vote totals) on the Republican side than the Democratic side this year. Those were all closely contested states in the last two elections. At first blush that doesn’t look good for the Dems, but maybe Dems stayed home because they thought the nomination was all but locked up for Hillary? That doesn’t sound quite right to me, but I’m not sure.
North Carolina seems a bit warmer for the Republicans than the Dems, but not by much.
Illinois, of course, is a Dem stronghold, and that hasn’t changed.
It looks like the question may well be if Republicans can swallow their bitterness with each other and come together in the fall. Hillary might be the one person able to do that!
A Trump/Cruz unity ticket looks plausible. Hillary/???? vs Trump/Cruz would be the worst of all possible results, as perhaps the three most hated politicians in the country would be on the general election ballot come November. What a revoltin’ development!
And the ruling class wonders why we’re pissed.
@Icepick
… Also, Rubio is likely to be a one-term Senator. He’s probably not done with politics, as it’s all he’s done, but I don’t know that he’ll get elected to anything again.
I do not know if he owes any money from this adventure, but he still needs to clothe, feed, and house his family. If there are any houses available in your neighborhood, you could send him a link.
What he will likely do is find a political sugar daddy or mommy, and that is assuming that he does not have one already. Or maybe, he did not insult Hillary too much to get a place her cabinet. If I understand the Republican Trump haters, she is better than Trump.
What I like about Trump is what I dislike about Rubio, and it is Rubio’s position. Rubio has to fetch when he is told to fetch. He has to sit when he is told to sit. He has to roll over when he is told to roll over. If he does not, his contributions dry up. His connections go away. His children are not accepted into the right schools. He cannot get reservations at the best restaurants.
Trump not only does not have any of these problems. The elite and power brokers cannot piss him off. He is from their circles or well above them. He is not a hick from the sticks. He is one of them, and none of the usual tactic work. Neither the Left nor the Right has been able to stop him, and he is proving to be the “strong horse”.
If there are any houses available in your neighborhood, you could send him a link.
The property value of my house is already below what it was 30 years ago, and that’s before adjusting for inflation. Do you want to drive the numbers back to 1960s values?
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And Rubio does have a political Sugar Daddy. I forget what his name is, but he’s some billionaire Jewish guy from Miami, who plugged Rubio into his network. That PARTLY explains Rubio’s hawkishness. But that guy has funded campaigns, I don’t know if he’ll be willing to fund a losing candidate. Anyway, Rubio can always fall back on being a lobbyist, in Tallahassee if not DC.