I found this backgrounder about the complexity of maritime interdiction operations against North Korea at the Proceeding of the U. S. Naval Institute interesting. Here’s a snippet:
China and Russia both maintain strategic relationships with North Korea and likely will turn a blind eye to evasion of sanctions. The Arabian Gulf is a confined waterway, approximately 600 miles end to end, and all maritime traffic has to pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. One of the most difficult challenges there was stopping vessels that tried to avoid interdiction by sailing through Iranian territorial waters. North Korea’s ports and waterways connect directly to “safe-harbor†Chinese and Russian territorial waters, which extend for thousands of miles in either direction and lead directly to open ocean. With summertime melting of Arctic ice increasing, a ship could depart a North Korean port and travel through the Russian Northern Sea Route all the way to Norway—the first such transit without an icebreaker occurred in August 2017.
Developing interoperability and complementary rules of engagement among the 16 navies enforcing UNSC resolutions took many years in the Gulf. While the Navy continues to work with other naval services routinely, starting MIO operations with a new coalition of navies adds a significant layer of complexity. This will take time, and DPRK shipping doubtless will exploit any cracks in the coalition’s capabilities until they are made seamless.
Expect calls for a naval blockade of North Korea to increase.
Sounds like an avoidable quagmire, if the Russians and Chinese decide not to play along.
Will be we willing to sink a DPRK Sea Scout ship when it refuses to heave to and permit boarding? What should we do a DPRK submarine is within range of a carrier?
If China and Russia do play along, blockades are very expensive and will tie up ships we might want to use else where.
A blockade is an act of war, so we would be the aggressor, and we will have initiated the war.
But, legalisms aside, North Korea has 78 submarines. Most are obsolete and lack the capabilities of our Virginia and Los Angeles class boats. However, they are diesel-electric and inherently stealthy. White the North Korean boats might not fare so well up against modern naval vessels, they are sufficient to shut down all commercial shipping to and from both South Korea and Japan. One torpedo in one containership would do the job. No shipping company would risk its vessels in war zone where they were targets.
Eventually, the North Korea boats would be found and sunk, but that would take months, and all that time South Korea and Japan would have no imports or exports unless we started a convoy system. We don’t have enough ships for that.
So once again. North Korea (and China and Russia) is presented as a hapless hopeless victim that we can punish and humiliate without risk of reprisal. Over the last several months, I have read dozens of essays on how we can punish the North. Not one ever mentioned the North’s allies, China and Russia. Not one considered that the North has abilities to respond.
The people driving the discussion about the North Korean problem are utterly incompetent and delusional. Conrad to the Emperor: we will crush these pesky Serbs. Russia will abandon them.
So is firing missiles into another country’s EEZ.