The graphic above and all of the statistics on which I rely are taken from the website of the Illinois Department of Public Health.
As you can see there has essentially been no change in the utilization of hospital beds, ICU beds, or ventilators by COVID-19 patients in more than a month. The number of new cases diagnosed per day has been flat for weeks. In the last couple of days there has been an uptick in new cases diagnosed. IMO that’s more due to an uptick in the number of tests being performed than it is to any actual surge in the number of cases.
Our governor and mayor claim that they’re making their decisions based on science and the numbers but I do not see how you can look at those numbers and conclude that what they’re doing is working. I think that one of two things (and likely both) must be true. Either the level of compliance with the directives is too low to be effective or the plan has been fundamentally flawed from the outset.
Let’s assume that the directives to stay at home, observe social distancing, and wear face masks could be effective in reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if there were greater compliance. My proposal would be to increase enforcement. That should include public employees. It should include police officers. Tickets with stiff penalties should be issued. Elected officials should be prepared for pushback when members of minorities are disproportionately affected by enforcement efforts.
Fewer workers should be deemed essential. The city should stop non-emergent tree-trimming or other non-emergency services. In-person shopping for groceries or at the pharmacy should be suspended—delivery only. Fopd processing plants should be performing elementary screening activities on their workers to prevent the spread of the virus within the plants, e.g. taking temperatures, sending people with symptoms home. UPS, FedEx, and other shipping companies should only be allowed to deliver food and pharmaceuticals. If you can’t open the store, you can’t deliver the product.
Those would be good faith attempts at making the measures already in place more effective rather than just being willing to extend the same ineffective measures into the indefinite future.
‘Let’s assume that the directives to stay at home, observe social distancing, and wear face masks could be effective in reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if there were greater compliance.’
That’s a pretty big assumption that doesn’t seem to be being borne out by events. As I recall from a recent article the majority of cases requiring hospitalization now are coming from locked down private residences. So obviously semi-lockdown didn’t work, and I doubt even total lockdown would have worked. Aside from it being totally unconstitutional, people gotta eat. We aren’t equipped for the numbers of PPE-wearing food dispensers going door-to-door bringing groceries that would be required to keep American fed, and probably never would be.
Also 69% of total deaths in Pennsylvania have been attributed to nursing care facilities. The disease is now tearing through old folks’ homes like fire through paper tinder (with mortality rates approaching Black Death). They are the reason why death rates in many states have not declined, these homes were just the last densely-populated facilities to be affected partly thanks to the lockdown. New York is ahead of this trend because Cuomo’s Health Department injected COVID-19 patients back into homes thus spiking the state’s death totals early compared to the rest of the nation. It’s 20/20 hindsight, but the Princess Diamond data and other early data points could have warned authorities where to prioritize better, concentrating efforts and isolation to the very sick and PPE to their care givers. However it still might not have worked, all that might have happened in the end was pushing back the death dates as nursing homes one-by-one got infected. Unfortunately we can’t rerun history and pointing accusing fingers for not knowing in advance the progress of Kung Flu isn’t helpful.
But Ferguson! But Ferguson! Where is steve? But Ferguson! Wuhan Fauci! Wuhan Fauci!
Its not a forgivable mistake. You can’t yell fire in a theatre either.
There seems to be another pandemic – one called blind fear. It’s followed closely by a social phenomenon – blind obedience to authority, no matter or not if it makes any sense.
I’d like to nominate the people of Tijuana, Mexico as a control group to help judge the effectiveness of lock down policies.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mexico-tijuana-ins/tijuana-coronavirus-death-rate-soars-after-hospital-outbreaks-idUSKBN22K2U6
I support trying additional things.
I wish decision makers realized additional measures were needed a month ago.
Now as others have mentioned; to acknowledge more measures are needed is committing political suicide.
It is political suicide. The additional measures taken here involve closing and disinfecting workplaces that have outbreaks while sending workers home for two days with their families.
I don’t think this will be effective but it will put meat in the grocery .
Infection rates here are increasing rapidly as we open business incrementally. But the increase is in identifiable clusters. Meat pack plants. It would be nice to quarantine the sick workers, but with 1200 workers in an industry deemed essential how do you do that? So they keep going hoping it will burn out and maybe it will. Meanwhile, the workers parents are dying of Covid because they live together. Opening up “safely†is now the default policy.
Deaths will rise, and barring a breakthrough, continue to rise for years. Proceed at your own risk.
Opening state already show rising numbers:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/05/states-moving-forward-with-reopening-are-seeing-increases-new-coronavirus-cases/
“But Cuomo also noted on Sunday that New York has the highest nursing home population in the United States, with 101,518 residents – but has the 34th-highest percentage of COVID-19 deaths in the nation. About 12 percent of all coronavirus deaths in New York have occurred in nursing homes, compared to states like West Virginia and Minnesota, where those facilities account for 81 and 80 percent of fatalities, respectively.”
Lots of vague accusations about NYC, but precious few numbers. Conservatives work on feelings, not data, so that is to be expected.
“blind obedience to authority, no matter or not if it makes any sense.”
The irony of this coming from a Trump supporter is overwhelming.
Steve
The known facts speak for themselves in NYC.
The number of confirmed deaths both absolute and per capita are about the worst in the world if New York was a country.
“The known facts speak for themselves in NYC.”
Yes, and if that source is correct, it looks as though NYC had a lower death rate in nursing homes than most other states.
Steve
I bothered to actually lookup the claim from Gov Cuomo.
It is purposely misleading.
Gov Cuomo is claiming the PERCENTAGE of COMFIRMED cases who died IN a nursing home compared to the total number of deaths is half the national average.
So if someone was in a nursing home but died in a hospital does not count. Someone who is a probable case (but not confirmed from a test) does not count, New York has several thousands of those. Then also the fact NY had more non-nursing home related deaths then any other state.
The chart Cuomo uses makes it blatantly obvious. West Virginia is #1 at 81%. 81% of West Virginian residents at nursing homes have not died. In fact, West Virginia has the 6th lowest deaths per capita among the states.
Cant win can we? If they count the unconfirmed cases then they are accused of lying and padding their numbers to make it look worse than it is overall. If they report it this way then nursing home deaths are lower. What we need is for someone to follow up and see how many Covid pts actually were sent back to nursing homes, at what stage and if it affected the homes to which they were sent.
Steve