The most recent poll from Public Policy Polling might give you some flavor of what next year’s race for Illinois governor is likely to be. Sitting Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, Illinois’s accidental governor, is in more or less a dead heat with the likely Republican candidates:
Only 34% of voters approve of the job Quinn is doing to 60% who disapprove. That ties him for the third most unpopular Governor in the country. That’s actually an improvement for Quinn though- his numbers are up from a 25/64 approval spread a year ago at this time, which had made him the most unpopular Governor anywhere. He’s seen a little bit of improvement with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
In match ups with his potential GOP foes Quinn leads Bruce Rauner 41/38, trails Dan Rutherford 41/39, and ties both Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard at 41% and 39% respectively. Quinn trails by 4-7 points with independents and loses 13-15% of the Democratic vote in each of the match ups.
I think that Pat Quinn is a good egg but a mediocre governor at best in very challenging times. Coping with Illinois’s public pension problem is an urgent necessity and so far Gov. Quinn has been unable to get the Democrat-dominated state legislature to cooperate. The veto session has ended without any action on this most urgent of agenda items which means it will be on the agenda again in the next session. Each time the legislature kicks the can down the road the state’s and Chicago’s bond rating suffers, increasing both the state’s and the city’s operating costs. Illinois’s credit rating is already the lowest of any state.
IMO who sits in the governor’s mansion depends on just how much Republicans want a fellow Republican to get the job. I’m not sure why they’d want it.
Update
Something I probably should have mentioned in the body is that PPP polls seem to oversample Democrats a bit. That’s even worse news for Quinn’s re-election than their raw results would indicate.
The interesting thing about the four Republicans is each has an unorthodox position from conservative purism:
Bill Brady has taken liberal positions on immigration;
Dan Rutherford was the only Republican Senator to support same-sex marriage;
Kirk Dillard appeared in a TV ad for Obama, and is being supported by public sector unions;
Bruce Rauner is close to the Rahm and Ayers, billionaire contributor to Democrats.
All I think I know is Brady would lose, since he’s done that before superbly.
As I said in the body of the post, it depends on how badly Republicans want the governor’s mansion. Rutherford would probably win; Dillard might well win; Rauner could win; Brady can’t win. My guess is that they’ll run Brady.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-26/i-fear-what%E2%80%99s-coming-%E2%80%93-68-americans-believe-country-wrong-track
And Michael is feeling positively European…….
And drew wants me to feel optimistic….
Oddly, one hears lots more stories about people getting hosed by Obamacare than those doing better by Obamacare. I know two stories of people doing better post PPACA: Reynolds and my oldest friend. And my oldest friend is on Medicare, I think it is, as he is disabled.
Don’t tell Michael but I’ve read some recent analyses (not from interested parties) of California’s exchange suggesting that 2/3s of those enrolled on them will pay more than they had been. The remaining third is composed of subsidy recipients.
I presume you mean two-thirds of those that insurance previously.
those that HAD insurance previously. Sheesh, I hate typing on a phone.