For the last 30 years every administration, Republican or Democratic, that has gained control of the White House has emphasized the importance of a college education for a happy, secure future. I have been critical of that for several reasons, the most important being that only about 50% of the population can actually benefit from a college education. In the country with the most highly educated population in the world (Canada) about 56% of the people between 25 and 64 have completed some form of tertiary education.
But the worm may be turning. According to a survey taken by the Wall Street Journal and the National Opinion Research Center (NORC, an old client of mine) and reported on in the WSJ by Douglas Belkin, American popular opinion on college education has changed:
A majority of Americans don’t think a college degree is worth the cost, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll, a new low in confidence in what has long been a hallmark of the American dream.
The survey, conducted with NORC at the University of Chicago, a nonpartisan research organization, found that 56% of Americans think earning a four-year degree is a bad bet compared with 42% who retain faith in the credential.
Skepticism is strongest among people ages 18-34, and people with college degrees are among those whose opinions have soured the most, portending a profound shift for higher education in the years ahead.
In 2013, 53% of Americans were bullish on college, and 40% weren’t. In 2017, 49% of Americans thought a four-year degree would lead to good jobs and higher earnings, compared with 47% who didn’t.
Why the change? Some of it is basic economics. The easy availability of college loans has increased the willingness to pay. For any good or service when you increase the willingness to pay while not correspondingly increasing the supply, all else equal the price goes up. As the price of a college education has risen faster than wages, the more difficult it becomes to find a job that college education will get for you that allows you to maintain a middle class lifestyle and pay off your loans. Importing large numbers of college grads from other countries or offshoring the work (particularly when they’re willing to work for less) hasn’t helped either. I would speculate that the United States has more young people saddled with educational loans who haven’t completed a tertiary educational program than any other country in the world.
But if not college, what? I think several things need to happen. First, local, state, and federal politicians need to change their rhetoric. College should be de-emphasized. College prep program in every high school should be phased out in favor of manual arts programs. Emphasis in state and federal policies should be on apprenticeship programs rather than college educations. And, as with so much else, we need to control our immigration and encourage our economy to shift away from low-skill minimum wage work to more skilled but nonetheless manual work. We need to give more respect to people who work with their hands.
I have little confidence that any of those things will happen so I expect the dissatisfaction to grow.
I think the problem is that most manufacturing involves dangerous and/or dirty materials, at some point in the supply chain. Manufacturing a smartphone starts with mining for metals and drilling for oil. After that, it only gets worse.
There is a limited number of plumbers, roofers, truck drivers, etc. needed. I suspect that part of the population shrinkage is just the natural process of rightsizing.
I did see that they are predicting a shortage of vets, especially for large animals. (I guess shoving your arm up a cow’s butt is not as satisfying as it used to be.)
“First, local, state, and federal politicians need to change their rhetoric.”
Politicians rarely lead. They might catch some upcoming or prevailing sentiment and latch onto it to promote their career. So what you really need is a coalition of parents (mostly) and educators working to not only de-emphasize college but to emphasize alternatives. Your average 16 y/o doesnt know who their congressperson is (neither do their parents) and could care less what they have to say. They do care about their peers and their chosen influencers.
One of the ways we can de-emphasize college is to focus on college that doesnt work. Colleges that have students with high default rates on loans shouldn’t be eligible for more public loans. Unfortunately this is dominated by the for profit schools and they have political cover.
Steve
Consider the opposite, steve: politicians at all levels continue to promote college educations. At least at the margins they will have some impact.
As to knowing who their congressman was, when I was a kid our congressman and one of our senators were family friends. As I’ve said before ours was a political family.
Politicians may have some influence on parents so maybe there is hope there, but politicians rarely address education in a helpful way. This just isn’t a talking point that nets you votes. Parents do still appear to be a major influence on kids, but in polls I have seen something in the range of 80% of parents want their kids to have white collar jobs. In poll at link it is 82%. So it looks to me like even a lot of parents, probably most fo them, in blue collar jobs dont want their kids to do the same.
Steve
Dear Tastybits,
In my first job, at Union College, I had a colleague (vet school drop out) who noted that women veterinarians did not do large animals, and cow calving was the example he used. That was 1970.
The vet we used for our pets sold his practice to a former employee, a woman, and she shut down the large animal practice. Also, there are no men in the practice today.
I don’t know what farmers will do. Most vets graduating today are women, as if that’s a good thing.
As to non-college-requiring jobs, the issue is where are they? Manufacturing is gone, which is the basic cause of Baltimore, Detroit et al. It’s not coming back. Anyway, modern factories are highly automated, especially the Chinese ones.
Fast food seems to be moving heavily into automation, too. No more spitting in the customers coffee.
The trades are a good choice, but just how many plumbers do you need? Or electricians? Or auto mechanics?
But I do not think a person in the trades will be able to support a family by himself, as my father did as a pipefitter and my grandfather as a steamfitter. In those days those were union jobs. Today’s tradesmen are almost gig workers.
Ilana Mercer has a post up in which she blames the homelessness in some west coast cities on the influx of foreign techies, H-1B’s, who have driven up the prices of all housing:
https://www.ilanamercer.com/2023/03/slandering-homeless-mass-immigration-not-mental-disease-addiction/
I’m don’t think that applies nationally. Our local homeless look like they never were part of the economy, and became scavengers long ago. Although we are in a housing boom, as the Columbus growth has spilled over some 60 miles from the State House, and the proposed Intel chip facility is only 20 miles away. Assuming that actually happens. Washington bureaucrats are already piling on all sorts of special demands and regulations.
Because I have lived for quite sometime now in the SE, with its huge growth dynamic, I have a somewhat different view.
Tradesmen are in huge demand, and make a very “livable wage.” Some of it, heh, off the books. And since people are so deperate to find tradesmen, the so-called “Handyman” has arisen. Wouldth that they had better training.
The biggest problem that I see is that so many of these jobs are being taken by immigrants. This is disrupting the wage structure for tradesmen. It should be better. (Someone tell Lunch Pale Joe. snicker) And I know people won’t want to hear this. As a general proposition American’s work ethic is declining. They don’t want to be roofers, plumbers, electricians etc.
But I’m more optimistic than others. I actually believe that things will adjust. Being saddled with large student loan debt for a Women’s Studies or Psychology degree is growing old.
Oh come on.
Who works off the books for cash anyway?
I guess if you’re not part of it then you can’t see it and that’s the beauty of it.
Not everyone wants to be an engineer, a lawyer, a doctor, etc..Not everyone wants to spend their life working just to make money to spend on things they will most likely use only a few time before they store their stuff in a self storage bin.
Finding good tradesman is also difficult in our part of the country. We also have “handymen”. We get references through church friends and have found that helps with quality. I used to do most of it myself, except electrical and plumbing, but its getting harder.
Steve